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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Raptors

May 26th, 2014 at 10:25pm CST by Zachary Links

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (20th overall)
  • 2nd Round (37th overall)
  • 2nd Round (59th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $39,273,626
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $12,090,880
  • Cap Holds: $28,523,916
  • Total: $79,888,422

We all spent last summer talking about the Nets and Knicks.  In retrospect, we should have paid some attention to the Raptors.  Yes, Brooklyn bested the Raptors in a hard-fought seven game series, but the Raptors were the best team in the Atlantic Division from wire-to-wire, playing their way to a 48 win season when few had them pegged as a playoff team.

The single biggest reason for Toronto’s success in 2013/14 was the outstanding play of Kyle Lowry.  The veteran was never heralded as one of the top point guards in basketball, but this past season put him squarely in the conversation.  After averaging a career-high 17.9 PPG and 7.4 APG (and a career-high 20.1 PER), Lowry is set to hit the open market and figures to see a significant pay raise on a multi-year deal.  Raptors CEO Tim Leiweke has made no secret of his desire to keep the 28-year-old in Toronto.

“There’s a really special bond between [GM] Masai [Ujiri] and Kyle,” Leiweke said in April. “This town should be in love with this guy. What a great story. He’s vented that anger and energy that he had last year, and it was sometimes aimed at the refs, sometimes aimed at other people. He’s figured out how to vent that and put that into the team, and this team truly loves each other.”

While it’s true that Toronto historically hasn’t been a prime free agent destination, Lowry has found a home in more ways than one with the Raptors.  The Raptors hold Lowry’s bird rights and they have just ~$39MM in commitments on the books for 2014/15.  There will be plenty of suitors desperate for a solid veteran PG like Lowry, but it would be a surprise to see him go elsewhere.

Earlier this month, the Raptors took care of their second-biggest free agent: head coach Dwane Casey.  After guiding Toronto to a record that pretty much no one saw coming, the veteran coach was rewarded with a three-year deal that will pay him roughly $4MM per season.  With a number of openings this summer, Casey was likely to get major offers elsewhere, so it was very prudent of Raptors management to wrap him up early in the offseason.

With some financial flexibility in their favor, the Raptors could do something that was unthinkable just a few years ago: bring back Vince Carter.  The Mavericks veteran is coming off of a three-year, $9.3MM deal in Dallas and Mark Cuban may not have enough wiggle room to keep him.  Carter is still going strong at 37 and would be a solid addition to the Raptors, as well as a feel-good story, though he says he would welcome a new deal with the Mavericks.  We’re not so sure that Air Canada wouldn’t fly back home if the money was right.

Lowry is the most important free agent on the roster but he’s not the only one.  The well-traveled Patrick Patterson is a restricted free agent.  He showed promise at times and averaged 9.1 PPG and 5.1 RPG in 23 minutes per contest for the Raps.  Patterson is an adept three-point shooter who nailed 41.1% of his shots from downtown for Toronto and may seek out an opportunity with more playing time.  He’s not in line for a massive deal but a better opportunity to showcase himself could set him up for a bigger contract in the future.

The Raptors finished the season with two of their summer league invites on the roster.  Dwight Buycks and Julyan Stone found their respective niches on the bench and it’s a safe bet that their inexpensive team options, $816K and $948K ($100K guaranteed) respectively, will be exercised.  Still, one has to imagine that they’ll push for new deals and the Raptors may choose to lock them up on mulii-year pacts before they can increase their value further next season.

In addition to having a bit of cap room, the Raptors also have an opportunity to improve through the draft.  Toronto has three picks: their first round pick selection (20th overall) and two second round picks, the No. 37 (via the Kings) and No. 59 (via the Thunder).  While the Raptors are still somewhat future-minded, they got a taste of winning this season and they presumably want to position themselves for a deep playoff run in 2014/15.  It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Raptors move one or both of their second round picks and take calls on their No. 20 overall pick.  The Raptors also have 2012 second-round pick Tomislav Zubcic stashed overseas, so they’ve already got a young prospect in the pipeline.

If the Raptors move those picks, they’ll likely target a backup center to support Jonas Valanciunas.  They could also go for a veteran athletic wing player if they can’t rope VC back to his original club.  John Salmons and Landry Fields were charged with this role last season and neither made a tremendous impact.  Salmons gave the Raptors some solid D when he came over this season but averaged just 5 PPG and 2.0 RPG in ~21 minutes per game.  Fields, who has yet to justify his three-year, $20MM contract, lost most of the season to injury.  If they turn to free agency, affordable bigs on the open market could include Drew Gooden and Malcolm Thomas (non-guaranteed deal).  There are also intriguing free agent veteran wings such as Danny Granger and Marvin Williams available.  If the Raptors want to make a major addition instead, they could put themselves in the mix for Cavs free agent small forward Luol Deng.  Many reports have indicated that Deng is unhappy in Cleveland and it stands to reason that he could make a bee line to a winning club.

The Raptors will look to re-load this summer, but improvements from within are probably more central to their success next season.  If Valanciunas and Terrence Ross can take another step forward and DeMar DeRozan progresses the way we expect him to, the Raptors should find themselves at or near the top of the Atlantic with a chance to make some noise in the postseason.

Cap footnotes

* — The Raptors waived Camby in July 2013. Guaranteed money remained on the contract, even though Camby agreed to give up $2MM in a buyout arrangement.
** — Salmons’ salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30th.
*** — Hansbrough’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29th.
**** — Stone’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 7th.
***** — Buycks’ salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 22nd.
****** — Patterson’s qualifying offer would be $4,268,609.
******* — Vasquez’s qualifying offer would be $4,677,708.
******** — De Colo’s qualifying offer would be $1,828,750.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Dallas Mavericks

May 26th, 2014 at 10:00am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 2nd Round (34th overall)
  • 2nd Round (51st overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $28,267,575
  • Options: $915,243
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $2,067,282
  • Cap Holds: $47,731,773
  • Total: $78,981,873

For a third consecutive summer, the Mavs plan an offseason pursuit of a marquee player to put next to Dirk Nowitzki. This time, Dallas has nonetheless expressed interest in retaining a handful of its own free agents, with coach Rick Carlisle having spoken of the team’s fondness for continuity after two years of roster turnover and GM Donnie Nelson‘s open to keeping the team together. The club seems to have competing goals, but it’s possible for the Mavs to retain nine players under contract for next season, re-sign Nowitzki at a reduced rate, and still approach the kind of cap flexibility necessary to chase maximum-salary level free agents.

That two-pronged approach hinges on Nowitzki’s willingness to re-sign at a discount. Neither he nor the Mavs have expressed any doubts that he’ll return to Dallas next season, but the former MVP wants the team to show respect to his continued strong play. The 7-footer averaged 21.7 points and 6.2 rebounds in 32.9 minutes per game with 39.8% three-point shooting this past season. His 23.6 PER was his highest since 2007/08. Were he not turning 36 next month, he’d fit the profile of a maximum-salary player. Instead, he’s staring at a significant decrease in pay from the more than $22.7MM he made this past season. He’s already acknowledged he won’t be receiving anything resembling the two-year, $48.5MM extension that’s about to kick in for Kobe Bryant, just two months Nowitzki’s junior. Reports indicate he’s in line for deals ranging from a three-year, $30MM pact to a contract with annual salaries of as much as $12MM. I think he’ll probably wind up on the high end of that range, but in any case, the Mavs are poised to have Nowitzki at a bargain price next season.

There will be pressure on Dallas to rapidly close the deal with Nowitzki so that the team can make the deal official as soon as the July Moratorium ends and wipe his massive cap hold off the books. That shouldn’t be too tough a task for an organization that’s intimately familiar with the down-to-earth star who lets mentor Holger Geschwindner negotiate his deals in place of an agent. It’ll nonetheless be the first time the Mavs are asking Nowitzki for such a sacrifice, so it won’t necessarily be an open-and-shut procedure.

A $12MM salary for Nowitzki and the club’s planned retention of Samuel Dalembert and his full salary would give the Mavs about $42.3MM in commitments, $20MM shy of the projected salary cap. That wouldn’t be enough to accommodate a maximum-salary offer for free agent target Carmelo Anthony, who can make close to $22.5MM next season, particularly given the roughly $1.5MM in roster charges the Mavs would incur if they were to strip down to nine players. The Mavs would nonetheless be reasonably close. They could clear additional cap space if they find a trade partner for Shane Larkin, last year’s 18th overall pick. Larkin is somewhat redundant on a roster that features three other point guards under contract for next season. Still, Dallas is nonetheless reportedly uninterested in paying Anthony the max, suggesting the team might not want to go so far as to dump last year’s first-round pick just to get as close to Anthony’s max as possible.

The Mavs will certainly make a run at ‘Melo, but it doesn’t appear as though their offseason plans are dedicated to a pursuit of the top free agent target, as was the case in 2012 with Deron Williams and to a lesser degree with Dwight Howard last summer. It seems most likely the Mavs will miss out on the top four players in the latest Hoops Rumors Free Agent Power Rankings. LeBron James appears increasingly likely to stay in Miami, the Suns intend to match all offers for restricted free agent Eric Bledsoe, Anthony doesn’t have Dallas high on his wishlist and the Mavs and Chris Bosh have a mutual disinterest. That still leaves a coterie of players more valuable than Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon, the Mavs’ headliners from last summer’s free agent effort, and for the likes of Greg Monroe, Kyle Lowry and Zach Randolph, there’d be no need to strain to clear extra cap room.

Luol Deng and Marcin Gortat are reportedly two of the team’s primary targets. Of the pair, Deng appears more valuable, if more expensive, but he’s also more likely to leave his current team, as his brief Cleveland experience seemed to go south nearly from the beginning. Deng would be a younger replacement for Shawn Marion at small forward, and he’d provide the defense needed to offset the presence of Calderon and Ellis with enough offensive firepower to give the Mavs a frighteningly potent attack. There will be plenty of competition for Deng, but even a rumored $13.5MM price tag for the 29-year-old would be doable. It probably wouldn’t take that much to land Gortat, but it might require money not too far removed from that figure to pry him from the Wizards. He’d instantly become the team’s best center since Tyson Chandler, whom Dallas not coincidentally has interest in reacquiring.

There’s no telling if Chandler can recapture his status as an elite defender after an early season injury led to a down year this past season, and his contract, which calls for him to make $14.5MM next season, would scare off most. Dallas didn’t want to give him that kind of money when he agreed to that deal with the Knicks right after the lockout, but this time, doing so would only require a one-season commitment, since Chandler’s contract is up a year from now. Still, such a trade would probably require the Mavs to relinquish one of Calderon and Ellis or much of the team’s cap flexibility this summer, and neither option seems all that appealing. Larry Sanders is another defensive-minded center whom Dallas is apparently eyeing, but he’d be significantly more of a risk. His new four-year, $44MM extension kicks in for next season, and while he’d be less expensive than Chandler would be for next season, the long-term commitment would be the stumbling block. The Mavs can’t afford an $11MM albatross for each of the next four years as Nowitzki’s biological clock ticks.

The Mavs had one of the oldest rosters this past season, as 36-year-old Marion and 37-year-old Vince Carter embodied. Those two won’t combine to make the nearly $12.5MM they hauled in this past season, but they’re not minimum-salary fodder, either. Each has shown interest in returning, but Marion can envision playing elsewhere, and it’s conceivable that Carter will end up with offers for a salary greater than the $3.18MM he made this year. The Mavs are apparently worried about how they’ll be able to retain both without compromising their cap flexibility. In Marion’s case, just as with Nowitzki, there’s pressure on the team to quickly reach an agreement to wipe his outsized cap hold off the books. There seems a strong chance the Mavs end up renouncing his Bird rights if they can’t close a deal by the end of the moratorium.

Dallas has another decision it has to make regarding its team option on Jae Crowder. His ability to carve out a niche in the team’s rotation would in many cases make it a no-brainer to keep him at less than $1MM for next season, but declining the option would give the Mavs an extra shot of cap flexibility. That money could make all the difference when it comes to finding room for either a big fish like Anthony or a mix of second-tier free agents and new deals for Carter and Marion.

The Mavs showed they can compete with the very best in the Western Conference during their seven-game challenge of San Antonio, and they’ll have a few methods of giving themselves more than a puncher’s chance for next season. Which method they end up employing might not be as important as their willingness and preparedness to use all the tools at their disposal rather than just banging away with the shiniest one.

Cap footnotes

* — Crowder’s qualifying offer would be $1,115,243 if the team declines its option. That would represent his cap hold, unless the Mavs elect not to tender the qualifying offer. In that case, Crowder’s cap hold would be $915,243.
** — The Mavs hold the draft rights to Koponen, who’s yet to sign an NBA contract. He was the 30th overall pick in 2007, and his cap hold is equal to 100% of the rookie scale for the 30th overall pick in this year’s draft.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Brooklyn Nets

May 24th, 2014 at 4:07pm CST by Zachary Links

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • None

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $85,075,418
  • Options: $5,827,125
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $816,482
  • Cap Holds: $21,927,479
  • Total: $113,646,504

After a summer of spending that was enough to make Mark Cuban blush, the Nets weren’t able to meet their lofty expectations for this season.  The Nets powered their way to a winning record with a 15-game home winning streak, swept their regular season series with the Heat 4-0, and knocked off the Atlantic Division champs in the first round.  However, their wildly entertaining up-and-down season came to a close with a second round ouster at the hands of the Heat.  Now, the Nets are entering an offseason in which they have numerous question marks and very little flexibility to help address them.

Much of the Nets’ offseason will hinge on whether Kevin Garnett decides to play out the final year of his deal at $12MM or simply walk away.  Yes, it’s true, KG is a shell of his former self.  The 37-year-old averaged 6.5 PPG and 6.6. RPG in 20.5 minutes per game with a career-low PER of 13.3.  However, his decision will have serious ramifications on the rest of the roster.  Even though Nets owner and heli-skiing enthusiast Mikhail Prokhorov appears willing to spend whatever it takes to win, there has to be a limit at some point and that $12MM could conceivably be re-routed elsewhere, though, they can’t really reallocate those funds in free agency.  Garnett’s call also figures to weigh heavily on the mind of free agent Paul Pierce.

Pierce, 36, knows that time is running out on his NBA career and as he told reporters after the Game 5 loss, he has “maybe one or two [years] at the most” left in the tank.  The veteran is said to have interest in a reunion with coach Doc Rivers in Los Angeles and also likes the idea of finishing his career in Boston.  Even though the Celtics will have to do some serious work to turn themselves into contenders for 2014/15, the Clippers are a bonafide contender who would only get stronger with the addition of Pierce.  The Nets have a leg-up over the Clippers since L.A has $66MM+ in commitments for next season and can only sign Pierce to the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception.  However, Pierce has earned more than $315MM over the course of his career, including $15MM last season, and it’s not hard to imagine him giving up a few million dollars to have a strong chance at a ring with his longtime coach.

Pierce and Garnett aren’t the only stars who could break out of black and white.  According to a May report from Howard Beck of Bleacher Report, the Nets won’t rule out the possibility of shipping Deron Williams to his third career NBA team.  When the Nets acquired Williams from the Jazz in 2011, General Manager Billy King called him “the best point guard in the NBA.”  Today, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who would put D-Will in the same tier as Chris Paul and the rest of the league’s elite ones.  Williams, 30 in June, averaged 14.3 points and 6.1 assists per game this season, bringing his career totals down to 17.4 PPG and 8.7 APG.  Factor in the double-ankle surgery that he’ll undergo and the $63MM+ he’s owed over the next three seasons, it’s hard to see someone paying a hefty ransom to King for a player who posted a career-low 13.3 PER in 2013/14.  However, it sounds like the Nets will at least explore the possibility of moving Deron and getting something of value to team up with Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez, and hopefully, Garnett and Pierce.

The future of Williams’ understudy, Shaun Livingston, is also in question.  Livingston seems to have fully recovered from one of the most gruesome looking injuries in NBA history and is poised for a big pay bump in free agency.  While the Nets can outbid the Clippers and others for Pierce, they’re pretty handcuffed when it comes to the 6’7″ guard.  The Nets only have Livingston’s Non-Bird rights, which provide for no more than 120% of the minimum salary he made this past season. Brooklyn could also use its taxpayer’s mid-level exception, which would allow for a starting salary of $3.278MM and a total of nearly $10.3MM over the course of a three-year deal.  Other suitors can blow them out of the water.  The Wolves, who are already said to have interest, have the non-taxpayer’s mid-level, worth $5.305MM in year one, at their disposal.  If Livingston went to Minnesota, he could get a four-year deal worth $22.652MM on that exception.  King says that keeping Livingston will be his No. 1 priority this summer, but he’ll have his work cut out for him.

While the Nets probably could have used the services of Lopez in the playoffs, there’s no denying that they performed better as a unit without him.  It’s not Lopez’s fault – he’s an extremely adept scorer who can draw a double team every time he gets the ball inside.  In fact, in his 17 games last season, the Stanford product averaged a career-best 25.4 PER which would have placed him at No. 7 in the NBA had it been for a full season.  With a combined 96 games played over the last three seasons, could the Nets conceivably find a suitable trade?  While a healthy Lopez would be a very welcome addition for most teams, he is set to earn ~$15.7MM and ~$16.8MM over the next two seasons.  That’s a big risk for any team to take, so I wouldn’t bank on him changing uniforms.

So if Williams and Lopez are less than likely to get moved, who makes for a stronger trade candidate?  Mason Plumlee, who enjoyed the highest PER (19.09) of any eligible rookie last season, would be very desirable to teams looking for a reserve big with a high motor on an affordable deal.  The Nets also have an attractive asset in overseas stash pick Bojan Bogdanović.  The Nets can only give the 24-year-old Turkish leaguer the $3.278MM mid-level exception, which may not be enough to outbid European teams for his services.  The Nets would prefer to have both guys in the fold next season to fortify their bench, but figurative beggars (rich beggars, go figure) can’t be choosers.

There could be turnover when it comes to other guys on the reserve unit as well.  Andray Blatche ($1.4MM) will opt out and Andrei Kirilenko ($3.3MM) and Alan Anderson ($1.1MM) could follow suit.  AK47 turned down a much more lucrative offer from the Timberwolves last season and may seek to cash in this summer.  Anderson, signed without much fanfare last offseason, became a vital part of the Nets’ rotation, and it’s not hard to see someone giving him more than the veteran’s minimum.  Blatche, for all of his frustrating inconsistency, is still a very valuable piece for the Nets with athleticism that makes small-ball lineups possible.

And with all of these potential holes, the Nets probably can’t come away with an impact player in the draft since they traded away both of their 2014 picks.  The Nets’ all-in risk didn’t pay off and they’ve got their work cut out for them if they want to contend in the East in 2014/15.

Cap footnotes

* — Kirilenko’s cap hold would be $3,819,600 if he opts out.
** — Blatche’s cap hold would be $1,788,285 if he opts out.
*** — Anderson’s cap hold would be $915,243 if he opts out.
**** — Pierce’s cap hold will be the lesser of $23,000,001, which is 150% of his 2013/14 salary, or the maximum salary for a veteran of 10 or more seasons, which won’t be determined until after the July Moratorium. The number here is this past season’s max. Next year’s max will likely represent Pierce’s cap hold, since it’s almost certain not to jump to more than $23MM.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Washington Wizards

May 23rd, 2014 at 12:01pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 2nd Round (46th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $43,458,760
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,041,482
  • Cap Holds: $41,196,934
  • Total: $87,697,176

The Wizards entered this season without having won a single game in the second round of the playoffs since 1982, so to come away with two such victories is quite a leap for Washington. Still, the accomplishment comes amid a historic ebb in the strength of the Eastern Conference, in which only two teams finished with more than 48 wins in the regular season. Making it to the second round is but a step along a journey to the ultimate goal of a championship, and navigating the rest of that path might prove just as challenging for a franchise that faces critical decisions this summer.

The first move will seemingly involve a new deal for coach Randy Wittman, who coached this past season on an expiring contract. It seemed his job was safe as he piloted the Wizards to their first playoff appearance in six years, but Marc Stein of ESPN.com revealed that there seemed a decent chance as the playoffs began that the Wizards would part ways with him if they didn’t get past the first round. It’s been a week since the Pacers put Washington out in the second round and there’s still no news of a contract for Wittman, but owner Ted Leonsis has expressed a desire to take some time before making any decisions. Ostensibly, there remains a chance that either the Wizards, Wittman or both decide to end their relationship, but it seems slim at best even as time passes and other teams looking for coaches intensify their searches.

The fluidity of Washington’s coaching situation pales in comparison to the roster, which features only a handful of guaranteed contracts. Re-signing Marcin Gortat appears to be job No. 1 for Washington, a task that will likely require salaries of around $10MM a year. The 30-year-old seems to like playing for the Wizards, but capable starting centers always come at a premium. The Mavs are interested in snatching him away, and others will no doubt pursue the 6’11” center. There’s probably a strong chance that his $10MM price tag goes up, particularly in a free agent market that’s heavy on restricted free agents and players who can opt in for next season.

Any escalation in what Gortat can command will have a direct effect on Trevor Ariza, Washington’s other starter set to hit free agency. Executives around the NBA told Grantland’s Zach Lowe that they expect Ariza and Gortat to run up a combined annual cost of $15-20MM on their next deals. That means Washington’s cap flexibility will likely vanish if the team signs them both. There’s reason for the Wizards to have trepidation about paying too much for Ariza, whose 14.4 points per game this past season approached a career high and who has only twice scored more than 11.0 points per contest in his 10 years in the league.

The free agent pool doesn’t offer much long-range shooting, which could drive up the price for Ariza, who made 40.7% of his three-point attempts this season. The Hawks appear to have him on their list of potential targets, and the Cavs, who can clear plenty of cap room, reportedly engaged in trade discussions about him with the Wizards at the deadline. The lack of shooters on the market could also make it difficult for the Wizards to sign a replacement if he winds up elsewhere. The club is nonetheless confident in Martell Webster, who signed with the team for the full value of the mid-level last summer and whose 39.2% three-point shooting this season was nearly on par with Ariza’s accuracy, even though Webster slumped in the playoffs.

Gortat would be the team’s choice if it can’t re-sign both of them, reportedly in part because of the presence of Webster. There’s also Otto Porter, whom the Wizards no doubt hope will become the long-term solution at small forward. The No. 3 overall pick never earned consistent minutes after an injury sidelined him for the early part of the season, but better health in 2014/15 would seem to offer promise of marked improvement ahead for the former Georgetown Hoya. Locking up Ariza on a long-term deal with Webster’s salary already guaranteed through 2015/16 would signal that the Wizards have quickly lost faith in Porter, and it seems too early to give up on him.

Porter apparently isn’t the only player from Georgetown on the minds of GM Ernie Grunfeld and company. A January report indicated that the team was interested in Greg Monroe, and that news came just days before word of the team’s desire to re-sign Gortat. Inking both Monroe and Gortat wouldn’t make sense for the Wizards, who already have Nene on a long-term contract that would be difficult to trade, so perhaps the team views Monroe as a fallback option to Gortat. Agent David Falk has designs on a max contract for Monroe, who’s still a couple of weeks shy of his 24th birthday and seems likely to command higher salaries than Gortat will. Landing Monroe, who’d make around $14MM on a max deal next season, would probably mean both Gortat and Ariza are goners, but Washington’s full Bird Rights on both of its free agents wouldn’t necessarily preclude the return of Ariza, at least.

Regardless of what happens with Gortat, Ariza and any potential replacements, the Wizards have an opportunity to reshape their bench. Washington is leaning toward keeping Andre Miller, which would require the team to fully guarantee more than $4.6MM to a 38-year-old backup point guard. Grunfeld’s final decision on Miller may hinge on the team’s plans for the rest of the roster. There’s a decent chance it comes to down to a choice between committing to the $2.6MM non-guaranteed portion of Miller’s salary and having the ability to squeeze another full mid-level signing under the tax line. Miller’s salary becomes fully guaranteed before free agency begins in July, complicating the decision. If reports between now and then indicate that Gortat and Ariza are drawing interest from several other clubs, suggesting the price to retain them is going up, I wouldn’t be surprised if the team cuts Miller loose.

The Wizards also face decisions regarding qualifying offers for Trevor Booker and Kevin Seraphin. Booker triggered the starter criteria and is thus in line for a qualifying offer worth $4,677,708, as I explained in March. Seraphin’s qualifying offer would be $3,898,692, somewhat less expensive but nonetheless less likely to be tendered. Seraphin proved unready to take over as the team’s starting center in the absence of the injured Emeka Okafor in the preseason, helping motivate Grunfeld to trade for Gortat. Seraphin wound up falling out of the rotation entirely, and he seems destined for the minimum salary on his next NBA deal.

Booker will probably command more than that, but an offer that’s close to mid-level money seems mighty costly for a player who lost minutes in the playoffs to amnesty refugee Drew Gooden. The team went 23-22 when he started this season, not much worse than its 21-16 record with Nene as its starter, but even if the Wizards wind up re-signing him at a salary close to what his qualifying offer would be, Washington needn’t tether itself to that price. The Wizards would still have Booker’s Bird Rights if they declined to make the qualifying offer, so they’d still have a weapon to ward off interest from other teams even without the right of first refusal.

Grunfeld won’t have the biannual exception at his disposal, having used it last summer on Eric Maynor, who flopped as the backup point guard. Still, the GM was able to swing the deal that brought in Miller, jettisoned Maynor and sent away 2011 No. 6 overall pick Jan Vesely, a high-profile draft bust on Grunfeld’s record. The 2013/14 season was a season of redemption for past failures up and down the Wizards organization, one in which so many of the team’s gambles, including last summer’s max extension for John Wall, were validated. We’ll see this summer whether Grunfeld is willing to go down the familiar path, spend the team’s money on its existing cast, and bank on continued improvement, or if he’ll risk significant changes to the most accomplished Wizards team in decades.

Cap footnotes

* — Miller’s contract becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28th.
** — The cap hold for Singleton is equivalent to the greatest amount Washington can offer him for next season. Because the Wizards declined their fourth-year team option on Singleton before the season, they aren’t allowed to re-sign him for a 2014/15 salary that’s more than he would have earned on that option.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Portland Trail Blazers

May 20th, 2014 at 5:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • None

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $61,280,580
  • Options: $2,771,340
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $915,243
  • Cap Holds: $915,243
  • Total: $65,882,406

The Blazers made a leap forward this season without drastic changes to their core, and unless GM Neil Olshey gets creative in the next few months, the team will be forced once more to make its improvements from within. The club’s guaranteed salary for next season puts it only about $2MM shy of the projected $63.2MM salary cap, and that margin gets cut in half if Olshey keeps Will Barton past his guarantee date, which the GM has said he intends to do. That means the team is poised to retain its cap holds on Earl Watson and Mo Williams, who recently reiterated his desire to opt out, and enter the summer with the $5.305MM non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception and the $2.077MM biannual exception at its disposal. Those are valuable tools for upgrading a bench that ranked 15th in efficiency last season, per NBA.com, but they don’t provide the sort of game-changing flexibility needed to bring in a player who can close the gap between Portland and the truly elite.

A key decision involves Williams, who’d likely require the team to dip into the mid-level if he’s to re-sign as a free agent. The Mark Bartelstein client probably isn’t declining his option just to get the incremental 120% raise his Non-Bird rights would allow. That would only be a little more than $411K more than what his option would give him. The 31-year-old took on a reduced role behind Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews this past season after starting in 2012/13 for the Jazz, but his 9.7 points per game, his fewest since he was a rookie, isn’t simply tied to fewer shot attempts. He shot just 41.7%, the third-worst percentage of his career, and his 11.8 PER, also his lowest since his rookie season, demonstrates his lack of efficiency. Williams was Portland’s best bench scorer by far, nearly doubling Dorell Wright‘s PPG, but using mid-level money to bring back the leader of a mediocre group of reserves seems ill-advised.

Whomever the Blazers might sign with that mid-level money would surely be encouraged if LaMarcus Aldridge signed an extension this summer, but the collective bargaining agreement would make such a move imprudent for the power forward. An extension would limit him to tacking just three years onto his deal, as opposed to the four or five years he can lock in as a free agent. It’s unclear whether Aldridge’s annual salaries would be higher in an extension or a new deal, since his salary in the final year of his existing deal is relatively close to what the maximum salary has been for a player with his experience. The safe bet is that the max, like the salary cap, will rise over the next couple of years, making it a better financial play for Aldridge to hit free agency.

So, this summer’s free agents will probably have to take Aldridge’s comments this season about his willingness to consider an extension as the most reliable indicator suggesting that he’ll stay in Portland long-term. Aldridge certainly gave the impression that he’s embraced the Blazers in the context of last summer’s mixed messages that hinted at a trade demand. Portland’s return to prominence appeared to erase the 28-year-old’s doubts about the organization, and it seemed that the team’s fast start this season made it attractive to other marquee players as well. Aldridge said during the All-Star break that multiple fellow All-Stars came up to him and told him they’d like to play for the Blazers. He didn’t say who they were, and there exists the possibility that Aldridge only said so to make his team look more attractive. Even if those All-Stars did make such comments, it’s a wide gap between saying so and doing so.

The dream scenario would no doubt involve Kevin Love, who went to high school in Oregon, but there’s been no indication that the Timberwolves star is considering a return to his childhood home. The Blazers have little in the way of up-and-coming young assets to offer the Timberwolves in a trade this summer, aside from Lillard, whom the team surely wouldn’t surrender. Nicolas Batum flirted with the Timberwolves in 2012, but that was when David Kahn was the GM in Minnesota, and new front office chief Flip Saunders might not be as high on the long-armed small forward. Still, Batum, at age 25, looms as the linchpin of any major trade Olshey might undertake this summer. He’s not a superstar like Lillard or Aldridge, and not the textbook role player that Robin Lopez is, either. Matthews is coming off a career year, but he’s more than two years older than Batum and doesn’t possess the same kind of tantalizing upside.

Batum averaged fewer points this year than the season before for the first time since he entered the NBA in 2008, but he set new career highs with 7.5 rebounds and 5.1 assists per contest. His defensive prowess is difficult to measure, given the deficiencies of the bench unit and the team’s overall sieve-like performance this season, but his 3.1 defensive win shares were the most in his career by a significant margin, according to Basketball-Reference. His nearly 7’1″ wingspan indicates his potential as he continues to mature and pick up the nuances of NBA defense. Surely there are teams higher on him than others, and if Olshey can find the most infatuated of his front office peers, perhaps Batum can be at the center of a trade package for a star.

Any such trade would probably require Portland to give up future first-round picks, a concern given the team’s lack of draft picks this year. The Blazers would be able to trade their 2015 pick as soon as this year’s draft is over, but it’s difficult to build a team for the long haul without underpriced first-round talent. Lillard and perhaps C.J. McCollum embody that for the Blazers now, but Lillard is due for a new deal in 2016, and that plus a new max deal for Aldridge would take up a significant chunk of the team’s cap flexibility. Sacrificing too much of the future to accelerate the climb to contention has consequences that can prevent the Blazers from ever reaching the summit.

A daring GM might consider trading a starter to acquire a lottery pick this year, but taking a step back before the last season of Aldridge’s contract would be too risky for most. There’s better logic in largely standing pat, identifying the best mid-level and biannual targets, and hoping Lillard takes yet another stride forward in year three. That probably wouldn’t allow the team a clear shot at the Western Conference Finals, but little other than the instant construction of a superteam a la the Heat in 2010 would accomplish that feat, given the strength of the West. There’s a strong chance the Blazers will have to settle for another second round finish at best next season, leaving Aldridge to wonder whether the team is flat-lining.

The Blazers find themselves in a position similar to the one Golden State found itself in last season. The Warriors went out in the second round to San Antonio, their best success in years, but they entered the 2013 offseason capped out. GM Bob Myers pulled off a complicated trade for Andre Iguodala that seemed like a significant upgrade at the time, but it ultimately resulted in no real advancement in a challenging Western Conference. The Warriors gave up multiple future first-rounders to accomplish what seems like a lateral move one year later. Olshey was certainly watching his neighbor to the south, and I don’t expect him to follow Golden State’s lead and reach for a trade this summer. Batum is the only Blazer with guaranteed salary beyond next season, and Olshey will have ample opportunity to show Aldridge what he can do next summer, just as the star is set to make his final decision on his next contract.

Cap footnotes

* — Williams has twice expressed his intent to opt out, so assuming he does, his cap hold will be $3,182,400.
** — Barton’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 31st.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Golden State Warriors

May 16th, 2014 at 4:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • None

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $63,970,632
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,810,928
  • Cap Holds: $15,406,048
  • Total: $81,187,608

In the span of eight days, the Warriors went from an ex-Knick as their coach to someone who seemed destined to become a future Knick. Instead, Steve Kerr will be on the Warriors bench next season, overseeing an offense with a few triangle-inspired principles but with a heavy dose of Stephen Curry in the pick-and-roll, as he told Tim Kawakami of the Bay Area News Group. Kerr cites Gregg Popovich, who coached him for four seasons in San Antonio, as an influence, but it’s a stretch to declare him a member of the vaunted Popovich coaching tree, or any coaching tree at all, since he’s never coached before. He walks into the job with the sort of comfortable relationships with co-owner Joe Lacob, GM Bob Myers and other Warriors bigwigs that predecessor Mark Jackson didn’t have, but the pressure for Kerr to succeed in a field that’s new to him will be instant. Lacob expected this year’s squad to be a top-four team in a loaded Western Conference, and with limited flexibility for changes to the roster over the summer, the onus will be on Kerr to lift the team to that elite level immediately to avoid the sort of in-house scrutiny that dogged Jackson.

The club enters the offseason with commitments that slightly exceed the projected $63.2MM salary cap. Even if the cap winds up going even higher, any room the Warriors could create would almost certainly not be significant enough to entice the team to renounce its cap holds and officially dip under the cap, thus causing the forfeiture of the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception. That mid-level, worth $5.305MM, figures to be the team’s primary offseason tool. The biannual exception is unavailable, since the team used it to sign Jermaine O’Neal last year. The projected increase to the tax threshold for next season doesn’t get as much publicity as the rise in the salary cap, but it’s actually a larger jump, exceeding $5MM. The ability to spend up to $77MM without incurring the tax gives Golden State plenty of cushion to use the full mid-level, re-sign their trio of free agents, and explore trades that would add to the payroll.

Lacob has expressed his willingness to pay the tax in the right circumstance, and it might come to that if the team is to become a true title contender. Still, short of the chance to acquire a superstar, the Warriors seem more likely to lurk beneath the threshold and revisit the idea of going over it closer to the deadline, when their relative title chances will be more apparent. Golden State pulled off the Andre Iguodala trade last year with much less flexibility beneath the tax than it has now, so the front office has established that it’s capable of finding a way to manage an upgrade even under challenging financial circumstances. Still, the Iguodala deal cost Golden State its ability to promise a team a first-round pick before 2019, and the Warriors don’t have the haul of expiring contracts they needed to make the salaries work last time, making it tough to manage a trade that makes a difference without cutting into the core of the roster.

The most obvious target is the man whom Iguodala knocked from the starting lineup. It was Jackson’s call to bring Harrison Barnes off the bench, and it’s not out of the question that Kerr has different ideas. Still, the Warriors starting five of Iguodala, Curry, Klay Thompson, David Lee and Andrew Bogut was a tantalizingly efficient unit, outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. That’s the second-best margin of any five-man unit in the league that saw at least 250 minutes together this season. It’s a sign of success, and a sign of failure for the bench, since the team outscored opponents by just 5.4 points per 100 possessions overall.

Barnes doesn’t deserve all the blame for a group of reserves that suffered from the departures of Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry, but the seventh overall pick from 2012 suffered a disturbing stall in his development, with most of his numbers holding steady or declining slightly in spite of more minutes per game. His PER fell from 11.0 as a rookie to 9.8 this season, and most lottery picks who record sub-10 PERs have trouble avoiding the “bust” label. Barnes, who’ll turn 22 in a couple of weeks, seemingly still has time to turn his career around and fulfill his promise. While that possibility makes it difficult to fathom trading him away, it also makes this summer perhaps the perfect time to strike, before the perception of his upside changes for the worse.

The Grizzlies reportedly made a push to trade for Barnes at the deadline, and the Cavs apparently inquired about him, too, but the Warriors brushed off such talks and Lacob publicly cast doubt on the idea of letting him go. The Warriors made counter-proposals in response to a few offers, as Chad Ford of ESPN.com reported as he passed along a list of names that intrigued the team: Greg Monroe, Thaddeus Young, Tristan Thompson, Kenneth Faried, John Henson, Amir Johnson and Kevin Love. Some of those names would appear on any team’s list of intriguing players, and others are cornerstones that their clubs would be reluctant to trade. Still, the Warriors aren’t afraid to try to hit home runs, as their pursuit of Dwight Howard last summer made clear, and the likes of Love can’t be considered out of the realm of possibility, no matter how unlikely they are to wind up in Golden State next season.

Barnes might be the team’s best trade asset, but he isn’t the only one, even if the team does have a few sacred cows. Trading Curry seems unthinkable, and Lacob has vowed to keep Thompson, who’s up for an extension this summer, for the long haul. Bogut just received an extension this past fall, and while his inability to remain healthy is troubling, his presence as a defensive anchor, not to mention his long-term contract, would make it tough for the Warriors to send him away.

Lee inspires much disdain from critics who see beyond his impressive traditional stats, reminiscent of the advanced metrics community’s vitriolic deconstructions of Rudy Gay. The Warriors made their 2013 playoff run largely without his help, save for his laudatory efforts to play through a painful hip injury. He nonetheless has more than $30MM and two years left on his deal, and it might prove impossible to find a team willing to take that on and give back fair value in return this summer. Iguodala has changed teams the past two summers, and if the front office determines it was better off in 2012/13 with reserves like Jack and Landry than this past season with Iggy, there’s a decent chance he’d be on the move again. The Warriors might also attempt to trade bench players for bench players, banking on their ability to get more than they give.

The only pressure the Warriors would have to make a major upgrade this summer would be self-created, and there’s plenty of incentive for the team to concentrate on finding the best mid-level fit available. Curry and Thompson are young, with room for continued improvement, and the same can be said of Barnes, providing that this past season was an aberration. Festus Ezeli was impressive as a rookie, and his return to health bodes well for the bench. No matter what, negotiating that extension with Thompson will be a priority. Marcus Thompson of the Bay Area News Group (no relation) suggested recently that the shooting guard will wind up with $12MM annual salaries, putting him on par with Ty Lawson, who was probably the best player on a 57-win Nuggets team in 2012/13. The Warriors no doubt have higher aspirations than to mimic the team they pushed aside in last year’s playoffs, but Thompson is at best second on Golden State’s hierarchy to Curry, who’s on an even cheaper deal for another three seasons. The Warriors appear to have the foundation and framework needed to contend. The question is whether they have the front office savvy and patience necessary to fill in the gaps.

Cap footnotes

* — Green’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before August 1st.
** — Crawford’s qualifying offer is worth $3,206,867.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Hawks

May 15th, 2014 at 4:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options 

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (15th overall)
  • 2nd Round (43rd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $47,057,817
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,658,241
  • Cap Holds: $13,843,649
  • Total: $62,559,707

Rarely does much optimism surround a team that went 38-44 in the regular season and enters the draft without a lottery pick. Yet such is the case with the Hawks, whose injury-depleted roster just barely held off the Knicks for the last playoff berth in the Eastern Conference but nearly toppled the No. 1 seed Pacers in the first round. Much of Atlanta’s success in that series was likely a product of Indiana’s disturbing late-season malaise, but Jeff Teague once more proved a more valuable player in the playoffs, where it really counts, than in the regular season. Team’s all-out attack from behind the three-point arc engendered faith in first-year coach Mike Budenholzer and the team’s trio of inside-out big men. All three — Paul Millsap, Pero Antic and Mike Scott — were on bargain deals.

Millsap has one more year left at the team-friendly rate of $9.5MM, and the Hawks intend to keep Antic past the point when his paltry $1.25MM salary becomes fully guaranteed this summer. Scott’s contract is up, but he’s a restricted free agent, and Hawks GM Danny Ferry can match any offer. But it would be far-fetched if Ferry were content to take a passive approach this summer and hope improved health and the return of Al Horford would be enough for the team to win a round or two in the playoffs.

The Hawks can free up close to enough cap room to register a maximum offer for restricted free agents coming off rookie scale contracts, and it appears as though the team is considering a run at Pistons big man Greg Monroe. Ferry’s agent from his playing days, David Falk, is Monroe’s representative, and there are conflicting reports on just what new Pistons boss Stan Van Gundy intends to do with the former seventh overall pick. Still, the Hawks have Millsap and Horford firmly entrenched at either starting position that Monroe would occupy, and after competing for time with Andre Drummond and Josh Smith this past season, I’d be surprised if Monroe jumped into another crowded frontcourt.

A trade, of course, could change that dynamic, and Ferry would surely have no shortage of intriguing offers for either Horford or Millsap, both underpaid, if he were to put them on the block. A max deal for Monroe, who turns 24 this summer, would give Atlanta a young building block to pair with Teague, who’s facing his 26th birthday, with both on long-term deals. The trick would be finding a trade partner who can provide a piece that fits in exchange for one of the team’s incumbent big men. In that scenario, the Hawks would ideally bring in a wing player who can complement Kyle Korver‘s expert outside shooting with defense and dribble penetration at a level of production and a price point similar to Horford’s or Millsap’s. That’s a lot to ask of Ferry or any basketball executive.

Still, the team knows it needs one more star. The idea of playing with Teague, Horford and Millsap reportedly intrigues free agents, and while the Hawks probably won’t land LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony this summer, Ferry’s pursuit of Dwight Howard last year showed that he’s not afraid to make a pitch to anyone. It wouldn’t be shocking if the team made a run at Gordon Hayward, Luol Deng or Lance Stephenson, all of whom have appeared in the Hoops Rumors Free Agent Power Rankings as among the 10 best free agent options for the summer ahead. I’m just speculating about those names, but they’d probably be within Atlanta’s price range.

The Hawks are also well-positioned to attack the more star-studded 2015 free agent class, as the team only has Horford, Teague and Korver with guaranteed contracts beyond next season. The prospect of staring at those three plus upward of $35MM in cap flexibility 12 months from now will surely make Ferry think hard before committing long-term money to anyone other than a superstar. Even so, signing a free agent with the cap room likely available to the Hawks this summer wouldn’t preclude the team from clearing enough or nearly enough cash next year to go after the likes of Kevin Love, Rajon Rondo, or even LeBron.

All of that make it critical that the team not overspend on Scott or Shelvin Mack, another soon-to-be restricted free agent. Scott, whom the team unearthed at pick No. 43 in 2012, represents the most productive of the players from the team’s brief draft history under Ferry. He promises to develop into a valuable rotation-level role player who can contribute to even the best of teams, but the Hawks would be wise to let him sign elsewhere if another team shows strong interest. Mack made a valuable contribution this past season as a backup for Teague and as a spot starter, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawks decline to tender qualifying offers for him and for Scott, clearing $2.5MM worth of cap flexibility. That extra room could make all the difference for a more desirable free agent. Atlanta may also elect to float the qualifying offers with the intention of withdrawing them should one of their primary free agent targets show interest, but that would be a greater risk, since Scott and Mack would be free to quickly accept the offers during the July Moratorium.

Ferry acquired a pair of projects in the draft last year, trading for 16th overall pick Lucas Nogueira, who didn’t sign and spent the season overseas instead, and taking Dennis Schröder at No. 17. Last year’s draft was unusually talent-poor, and this year’s prospects are much more promising, even if they aren’t quite as ballyhooed as they were a year ago. The Hawks are set up to find a more valuable player this year even though they’re drafting at more or less the same position, and Ferry will surely enter draft night with a player or two he’d love to see fall to No. 15. Still, trading the pick seems a distinct possibility, perhaps in exchange for a future first-rounder. The Hawks have a chance to make a move toward title contention in the next year or two, and extra cap flexibility, plus the trade bait that a future first-round pick represents, seem more attractive than a mid-first-round rookie.

Ferry entered last summer with much the same aspirations, and though he accomplished plenty, swiping Millsap at a discount, retaining Teague and Korver, and plucking Antic out of Greece, the Hawks fielded a team that was no better in 2013/14 than it was the year before. Injuries pushed the team even farther down the standings. The Hawks could have ended up with a lottery pick if they’d been just a game or two worse, but it was a stroke of luck for them to make the playoffs and draw a Pacers team that’s wheezed toward the finish line. The Hawks didn’t win, but their showing against Indiana piqued the interest of a long-dormant Atlanta market. The Hawks aren’t a hot ticket quite yet, but their playoff momentum probably bought enough patience for the franchise to allow Ferry to hold on to his cap flexibility for 2015 if his aggressive pitches fall on deaf ears this summer. The offseason ahead could be a pivot point for the Hawks, but it doesn’t have to be.

Cap footnotes

* — Antic’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 15th.
** — The Hawks hold the draft rights to Nogueira, who’s yet to sign an NBA contract. He was the 16th overall pick last year, and his cap hold is equal to 100% of the rookie scale for the 16th overall pick in this year’s draft.
*** — Mack and Scott’s cap holds would be $915,243, respectively, if the Hawks do not tender a qualifying offer.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Memphis Grizzlies

May 9th, 2014 at 3:27pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options 

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (22nd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $48,980,360
  • Options: $16,938,333
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,316,482
  • Cap Holds: $22,433,851
  • Total: $91,669,026

The man whose absence was most conspicuous the last time the Grizzlies played no doubt lingers in the back of the mind of everyone in the organization. Team officials probably won’t harbor too much anger at Zach Randolph for incurring a suspension for Game 7 against the Thunder, since his hit to the jaw of Steven Adams was such questionable grounds for a one-game ban that few, if any, expected the punishment to happen. Instead, the Grizzlies will ruminate on Z-Bo’s decision regarding his lucrative player extension for next season. He’s given little, if any, indication of his preference whether to opt in or hit the market, where he could cash in as the ninth-ranked player on the latest Hoops Rumors 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings.

Randolph bookended the season with assertions that he’d like to remain with the Grizzlies for the rest of his career. He also expressed a desire to continue playing alongside Marc Gasol, who can’t elect free agency until next year, a subtle indication that Randolph might prefer to opt in so that he and Gasol can go on the market together. Still, Randolph expressed frustration with trade rumors that invoked his name this season. Team sources were adamant in their denials, but Randolph said he was hurt by what he perceived as a lack of loyalty, and he cited the Spurs, Lakers and Heat as examples of teams that have developed long-term bonds and won with them.

It would be tough to imagine the Spurs making the cap-clearing moves necessary to get into a bidding war for the 32-year-old, but the Lakers will have plenty of cap room, and the Heat might be in play if their trio of stars depart. There surely would be no shortage of other teams eyeing Randolph if he were to hit the market. The belief around the league is that Randolph would be in line for a three-year deal worth $30-35MM, according to Marc Stein of ESPN.com. I wouldn’t be surprised if a team goes a little higher for a player whose 17.4 points per game and 18.3 PER were the best he’s posted in three years.

There’s plenty of value in opting out, given Randolph’s increased production this season and the prospect of suitors growing all the more wary of his age in another year. He’ll turn 33 in July, suggesting it’s time to secure another long-term contract. Still, Randolph doesn’t figure to command the nearly $17MM salary he’d make next season if he opted in. Agent Raymond Brothers will no doubt earn his commission even before he negotiates Randolph’s next contract as he gathers the intel necessary to advise his client.

If Randolph’s back, the Grizzlies would have enough commitments to put them over the salary cap, but they’d have plenty of room beneath the tax line if the latest $77MM luxury tax projection holds up. That’ll allow them to use the full value of the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception, worth $5.305MM this year. There’s also a decent chance they’ll have room to use the $2.077MM biannual exception, and that chance would become a near-certainty if Randolph opts out and re-signs for a lower salary. Those loom as critical weapons for a front office that snagged Mike Miller and James Johnson at the minimum salary for this past season. Players who are bargains at the mid-level price can have an even more significant effect than minimum-salary gems, of course, so it’ll be interesting to see what CEO Jason Levien and company do with that sort of flexibility.

Randolph’s departure would give the Grizzlies even more money at their disposal, and they’d have about $11MM in cap flexibility without him. It would also present the team with an intriguing chance to change its identity from a traditional, bruising, post-oriented squad with two big men to a club based on spacing with a stretch power forward. Replacing Randolph with an outside shooter would help the team’s deficiencies in that department, and the return of a healthy Quincy Pondexter would add to the roster’s long-range firepower. The style would seem like a fit for the analytics-friendly Memphis front office, given how highly the greater advanced metrics community values the three-pointer.

It would nonetheless be difficult to change on the fly so quickly, particularly if the team wants to remain competitive and attractive to Gasol, who’s a free agent after next season. That’s why a strong push to sign Pau Gasol, Marc’s brother, would make sense regardless of the style of play Memphis chooses. The Grizzlies reportedly see any pursuit of Gasol as a secondary priority to Randolph, but that’s true of just about anything the team would do this offseason. Gasol appears have a decent chance of garnering a $10MM offer in free agency this summer, but the allure of playing with his brother on a winning team might be enough to inspire him to take a discount to return to Memphis, where he began his NBA career. Using the full mid-level on Pau Gasol as a backup should Randolph return might seem wasteful for a team in need of outside shooting, but having a first-rate reserve would be crucial, as Marc Gasol’s absence this year demonstrated.

Kosta Koufos is a capable backup, but he’s no Marc Gasol, and he’s no Pau Gasol, either, and the Grizzlies suffered when Marc was injured this season, costing them enough wins for them to wind up as the seventh seed. They proved they were much better than a seventh-place team against the Thunder, but it was also easy to see that the Grizzlies are still a player or two away from true title contention. It might not be necessary to waive Koufos and recoup most of his partially guaranteed salary for next season to upgrade the bench, but cutting ties with Koufos seems much more plausible than when the Grizzlies pulled off a shrewd trade to obtain him for Darrell Arthur last year.

Similarly, there doesn’t seem to be enough playing time to go around for Ed Davis, whose 6’10” size and pedigree as a former 13th overall pick might intrigue a team looking for a small-ball center on the cheap. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Grizzlies fail to tender him a qualifying offer, which would be worth more than $4MM. That’s more per year than Pondexter received on his extension this past autumn, and likely more than market value for Davis. The Grizzlies probably wouldn’t mind him back at Pondexter’s salary, but no more than that.

Miller has expressed a desire to return to the club “as long as everything is done fairly,” and while that might indicate that he’s unwilling to re-sign for the minimum salary, the Grizzlies could use his Non-Bird rights to give him a 20% raise, or the biannual for a larger bump. Retaining his shooting will likely be important to the club, but the Grizzlies will no doubt keep in mind that the oft-injured 34-year-old seems a long shot to play in all 82 games next year as he did this season. The Grizzlies will be without Nick Calathes for the first 13 games of next season thanks to his suspension for alleged use of Tamoxifen, so Beno Udrih appears a candidate to return on another minimum salary deal to back up Mike Conley.

The Grizzlies will have the sort of flexibility this summer that they haven’t enjoyed in the past few years regardless of whether Randolph opts out. Just how well they apply it will be pivotal not only for the team, but for the rest of the league, as Memphis lingers on the precipice of the title picture.

Cap footnotes

* — The Grizzlies waived Melo in August 2013 and used the stretch provision to spread his salary over three seasons.
** — If Randolph opts out, his cap hold would be equivalent to the maximum salary for a player of 10 or more years of experience, which will likely be around $20MM.
*** — Koufos’ salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30th.
**** — Calathes’ salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 15th.
***** — Davis’ qualifying offer is $4,268,609.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bulls

May 8th, 2014 at 2:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options 

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (16th overall)
  • 1st Round (19th overall)
  • 2nd Round (49th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $63,951,756
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $4,069,062
  • Cap Holds: $14,578,358
  • Total: $82,599,176

The possibilities for the Bulls offseason resemble the playoff scenarios for five teams separated by half a game at the top of the standings on the final day of the regular season. The summer ahead could break in myriad conceivable ways for Chicago, most of them giving the team a better shot at contention than seems fitting after the team spent the last three postseasons with with their title hopes, like Derrick Rose‘s knees, in tatters.

The most compelling outcome this summer would no doubt involve the acquisition of Carmelo Anthony, who appears to have put the Bulls atop his list of non-Knicks options for next season. Chicago’s cap commitments make any pursuit tricky, but the latest salary cap projection of $63.2MM has left the Bulls more confident they can pull it off. It would almost certainly have to involve removing Carlos Boozer‘s contract from the books, be it by amnesty or, as the Bulls appear to prefer, trade. Few teams would be willing and able to take on Boozer’s deal, even though it expires after next season, without sending back a significant chunk of salary in return, which would render moot Chicago’s rationale for trading Boozer in the first place. The possibility of a sign-and-trade with the Knicks involving Anthony exists, but Knicks president Phil Jackson might not be willing to play along and facilitate the departure of his team’s star.

The Bulls may find it impossible to trade Boozer, forcing owner Jerry Reinsdorf to either approve an amnesty or kiss goodbye to the team’s chances of landing ‘Melo. Reinsdorf has long been reluctant to spend, and an amnesty of Boozer, which removes him from the team’s cap but not its payroll, would likely force the owner to shell out more money on the Bulls roster than he ever has.

Even if the team sheds Boozer’s entire salary from its cap figure, the rest of Chicago’s salaries would eat up all but about $16.4MM under the projected cap. That number that would be further reduced to about $13.8MM, thanks to roster charges worth the rookie minimum salary that the Bulls would incur for having fewer than 12 players under contract. That would be well short of the nearly $22.5MM starting salary for which Anthony is eligible. The Bulls would have to find trade partners willing to absorb other assets without sending salary in return, though the team probably wouldn’t have a hard time divesting itself of its pair of first-round picks, which represent more than $2.7MM in cap holds. The Rockets were able to find a home for Thomas Robinson and others last year as they cleared the way for Dwight Howard to sign a max deal in Houston, so there’s reason for optimism that the Bulls can relieve themselves of Mike Dunleavy and perhaps Tony Snell.

Lopping the two first-rounders, Snell and Dunleavy off their books would give the Bulls about $17.6MM in flexibility, so perhaps Anthony would be willing to accept a deal of that size to allow the Bulls to have more than just the room exception and the minimum salary to fill out their roster. Any discount Anthony takes in his starting salary affects the money he can make over the course of the deal, since his raises would be limited to 4.5%. So, Anthony would likely have to make a financial sacrifice of somewhere between $10-20MM over the course of a four-year contract if he heads to Chicago.

Signing Anthony would probably keep Nikola Mirotic overseas for at least one more year. Mirotic appears to be the team’s priority if it can’t strike a deal with ‘Melo, though there have been conflicting reports about just how much it would take to buy him out of his Spanish league contract and bring him stateside. If it takes more than the mid-level exception, removing Boozer’s salary from the cap once more becomes critical. The 6’10” forward is widely considered the best player outside of the NBA, but his ability to contribute to a team with designs on a championship next year is a question. The Bulls may decide they’re better served chasing NBA free agents, like Lance Stephenson and Pau Gasol, in whom Chicago appears to have interest.

The team also has choices regarding its own free agents, including guards Kirk Hinrich and D.J. Augustin. GM Gar Forman won’t rule out re-signing both of them, but it appears that Augustin has the inside track to become Rose’s backup next season. The renaissance that Augustin, a 26-year-old former ninth overall pick, enjoyed this season after signing with the Bulls in December figures to make him fairly valuable on the market, though he’s said he’d like to remain with Chicago. Jimmer Fredette, another midseason backcourt signing, saw even less playing time with the Bulls than he did before engineering his release from the Kings, so he seems unlikely to return.

Forman and executive VP of basketball ops John Paxson made a flurry of late-season moves to maximize the team’s flexibility going forward. They released Erik Murphy, correctly surmising that a team would claim him off waivers and wipe his salary off Chicago’s books. That almost certainly leaves the team enough room below the tax line in case Taj Gibson or anyone else on the roster triggers an unlikely bonus. That means the Bulls, who paid the tax last season, won’t be in line for repeat offender penalties if they jump back into the tax next season. The team signed Mike James, Louis Amundson and Ronnie Brewer to cheap prorated deals that carry into 2014/15 with non-guaranteed salary, giving Forman and Paxson tools to help make salaries match in a trade.

The front office’s most significant task between now and the draft might involve coach Tom Thibodeau. The Lakers and Warriors would reportedly like permission to speak with Thibodeau, who’s in the midst of a long-term contract. Another report has suggested the team is eyeing Fred Hoiberg as a potential replacement. The loss of an elite coach, particularly if the Bulls replace him with someone like Hoiberg who doesn’t have NBA head coaching experience, could complicate the team’s free agent pursuits. So, I’d be surprised if the tension between management and Thibodeau manifests itself in a divorce. Still, the departure of Doc Rivers from the Celtics last season seemed to open the door for coaching “trades,” and perhaps the Bulls view Thibodeau as a fungible asset they can pawn off if necessary.

The Bulls also face a key decision regarding Jimmy Butler, who’s up for a rookie scale extension. Butler finished a tick behind ‘Melo for the highest minutes per game average in the NBA this season, establishing himself as an indelible part of the team. He shot much more poorly from the outside this season than he did in 2012/13, but he’s otherwise improved markedly during his tenure in Chicago. Hedging against a further breakout with an extension might help the Bulls keep long-term costs in check, with the prospect of free agency for the underpaid Joakim Noah looming in 2016.

The most important addition for next season would undoubtedly be a healthy Rose, who holds the key to the team’s title hopes. Just about any outcome for this summer would put Chicago in title contention if Rose returns to form, but it would be tough to envision the Bulls playing in June if his athleticism is compromised or he gets hurt again. The hands of Forman and Paxson will surely not be idle this summer, but their fingers will be crossed.

Cap footnotes

* — The Bulls waived Hamilton in July of 2013 and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining $1MM in guaranteed salary over three seasons.
** — The Bulls hold the draft rights to Mirotic, who’s yet to sign an NBA contract. He was the 23rd overall pick in 2011, and his cap hold is equal to 100% of the rookie scale for the 23rd overall pick in this year’s draft.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: New York Knicks

May 1st, 2014 at 5:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • None

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed salary: $29,903,532
  • Player and early termination options: $58,244,393
  • Team options: $0
  • Non-guaranteed salary: $3,706,939
  • Cap holds: $5,592,697
  • Total: $97,447,561

This summer will have a lot in common with the winter of 2010/11. That was the last time the courtship of Carmelo Anthony took center stage, and the specter of Anthony’s free agency this summer figures to once more dominate the back page headlines in New York and our pages here at Hoops Rumors. Anthony made it clear before the season that he intends to decline his lucrative player option for 2014/15 and hit free agency, and he’s maintained that stance ever since. He said at the All-Star break that the Knicks were his preference and that he’d be open to the idea of taking a discount to remain in New York, but he added that he wants to hear the team’s plans to return to contention before making his final decision.

Anthony has repeated those remarks as well, though it seems that he’s more concerned with what the team can do next season than in the long term. That puts pressure on Knicks president Phil Jackson, just weeks into his first job as a team executive. Anthony and the Zen Master met this week to discuss ‘Melo’s free agent plans for the first time and talk about Steve Kerr, whom Jackson has zeroed in upon for the team’s coaching vacancy. Kerr would be a first-time coach, meaning that he and Jackson, neophytes in their jobs, would have the task of squeezing a significant improvement out of a 37-win team that offers precious little roster maneuverability.

The Knicks have less than $30MM in guaranteed salary for next season, but that number is almost certain to more than double, since Amar’e Stoudemire and Andrea Bargnani appear to be locks to opt in. That would bring the team’s commitments to about $64.8MM, roughly $1.6MM more than even the new, more optimistic projections for next season’s salary cap. That means the team would be capped-out regardless of where or for how much Anthony decides to play next season. Anthony’s return would almost certainly bring the team over the tax threshold for a third straight season, putting them in line to pay sharply escalating repeat-offender tax penalties in future years.

Such expenditures matter little to the high-revenue Knicks, who gave Jackson a five-year, $60MM contract, making him the most highly paid basketball executive in the league’s history. Where paying the tax hurts the Knicks is with the loss of the full mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, and the chance to accept players who agree to a sign-and-trade. New York will only have the $3.278MM taxpayer’s mid-level exception at its disposal, and the minimum salary, to attract free agents from other teams.

The Knicks are also without either a first- or second-round draft pick this year. The earliest first-round pick that Jackson can offer teams in a trade is the Knicks’ 2018 selection because of the Stepien Rule. New York has little in the way of intriguing young players to offer outside of Iman Shumpert, whom the team dangled at multiple points this past season, nearly sending him to the Clippers at the deadline. Shumpert is eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer, but he doesn’t appear to hold the promise of turning into a star as most of the players who receive such extensions do. Jackson seems higher on Shumpert than the front office did under GM Steve Mills, who gave up his title of president when Jackson came aboard. Of course, Jackson, who made a habit of manipulating his team through the press when he was a coach, might have planted the assertion that he values Shumpert to better leaguewide perception of the 23-year-old as a trade asset, but that scenario is probably far-fetched. Still, the prospect of trading Shumpert represents one of the team’s clearest avenues for an upgrade.

Tyson Chandler, Cole Aldrich, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Toure’ Murry are also reportedly among Jackson’s favorites. Chandler suffered an injury early this season, and his play dropped off when he returned. He was a frequent critic of former coach Mike Woodson this year, fueling speculation that he might ask for a trade, but the arrival of Jackson and a new coach presents an opportunity for Chandler to reset. The question is whether the 31-year-old can resuscitate his game and again provide the elite defensive presence that was so critical to New York’s 54-win season in 2012/13. If Jackson senses he can’t, Chandler would become a trade chip whether he wants to leave New York or not. It might not be too hard to find takers for him, since he’s only under contract for one more season, and the risk of taking him on wouldn’t be too severe.

Hardaway would be another attractive trading piece after a strong rookie season. Still, given Jackson’s rumored affection for the guard and his potential for growth, he’d probably help the team more than whatever he could net in a trade, unless a team is willing to overpay for him. J.R. Smith began to play better toward the end of the season, but for the most part he was an albatross whose trade value bottomed out. Unless Jackson wants to send him out for little in return just to remove him from the locker room, Smith seems destined to remain a Knick.

New York’s late-season signing of Lamar Odom was clearly tied to Jackson’s history with the troubled forward, but it also signals what lies ahead in the offseason. His non-guaranteed contract is worth the minimum salary, but it’s the minimum for a veteran of 10 or more seasons in the league, worth more than $1.448MM. Odom’s chances of becoming a useful NBA player again seem remote, but that won’t matter if Jackson needs to use him to make the salaries match in a trade this summer. He can insert Odom into a trade, and the team that acquires him can simply waive him without owing him a cent. The Knicks can also cut him loose before opening night without him counting toward the team’s salary, so it’s a low-risk investment.

Jackson and, if hired, Kerr may hold out hope that the triangle offense will significantly help a team that’s too often reliant on Anthony’s isolations, but for Anthony to get his wish of an improved roster by next season, Jackson probably knows that trades are his best option. His assertion that Anthony should be “true to his word” and give the Knicks a hometown discount matters little for the team’s 2014/15 math. Jackson must exhibit the same aplomb with executives from opposing teams that he did with his players in his years as a coach to help the Knicks make a quick return to prominence.

Cap footnotes

* — Anthony has said repeatedly that he intends to opt out and become a free agent. In that case, his cap hold would be $22,458,402.
** — Murry’s cap hold would be $816,482 if the Knicks do not tender a qualifying offer.

ShamSports was used in the creation of this post.

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