2017/18 NBA Reverse Standings

Throughout the 2017/18 NBA season, Hoops Rumors will be maintaining a feature that allows you to keep an eye on what the 2018 draft order will look like. Our 2017/18 Reverse Standings tool, which lists the NBA’s 30 teams from worst to first, will be updated daily to reflect the outcomes of the previous night’s games.

Our Reverse Standings take into account playoff teams in each conference, so they’re essentially a reflection of what 2018’s draft order would look like with no changes to lottery position. In addition to not considering the results of the lottery, our tracker lists teams in random order when they have identical records. At the end of the year, those ties would be broken via random drawings.

Traded first-round picks are included via footnotes. For instance, the note next to Miami’s pick says that the Heat will send their pick to the Suns if it’s not in the top seven. As of today, the Heat are 13th in the lottery standings, meaning their pick would head to Phoenix.

Our Reverse Standings tracker can be found at anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu. It’s a great resource not just for monitoring a team’s draft position, but also for keeping an eye on whether or not traded picks with protection will be changing hands in 2018. So be sure to check back often as the season progresses!

Note: Mobile users are advised to turn their phones sideways when viewing the Reverse Standings in order to see team records and lottery odds.

Weekly Mailbag: 11/27/17 – 12/3/17

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

Do you think DeMarcus Cousins will be moved at the trade deadline? — Antonio Sosa

That depends on the Pelicans’ performance between now and the February 8 deadline, which depends heavily on the health of Anthony Davis, who will undergo further examination today for a groin injury. The pairing of Cousins and Davis has been much smoother this season, and the Pelicans have moved into contention for a Western Conference playoff spot with a 12-11 record. Cousins is making a little more than $18MM in the final year of his contract and will be among the top names on the free agent market next summer. He’s putting up typical numbers of 25.6 points and 12.3 rebounds per game and seems happy in New Orleans. Unless Davis is out for months and the Pelicans’ season falls apart, there’s little reason to expect them to part with Cousins.

What kind of return should Bulls fans expect for Robin Lopez? — Jesse, via Twitter

At 29, Lopez doesn’t fit in with the youth movement in Chicago, and although he might help a contender, he won’t be easy to trade. Lopez has another year left on his contract at more than $14.35MM. If he goes anywhere, it will have to be to a team with no expectations in free agency next year. Chicago wasn’t planning to rebuild so soon when it traded for Lopez in the summer of 2016, and the Bulls may be stuck with him for another year until his expiring contract makes him a more valuable asset.

Did David Fizdale get a raw deal in Memphis, and is it time for the Grizzlies to start rebuilding? — Shane, via Twitter

Fizdale is well regarded around the league and certainly deserved more than 101 games to prove himself as a head coach. However, he did the worst possible thing a coach can do, which is to feud with his star player. Reports out of Memphis say Fizdale and Marc Gasol hadn’t been on good terms for months, and the situation reached a boiling point last week when Gasol was kept on the bench for the entire fourth quarter of a loss. Management will always side with the player making millions over the easily replaceable coach. As far as rebuilding, the Grizzlies have dropped 11 in a row and have the fifth-worst record in the league. It may seem like time to rebuild, but the bulk of their salary is tied up in three players, Gasol, Mike Conley and Chandler Parsons, none of whom will be easy to trade with their enormous contracts.

Community Shootaround: Best Fit For DeAndre Jordan

DeAndre Jordan is the hottest new name on the trade market, put there by the Clippers’ poor start, a slew of injuries to teammates and his body language as the season continues to crumble.

A Friday night report from Gery Woelfel says the Bucks are aggressively pursuing Jordan, with L.A. asking for John Henson, Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton in return. Milwaukee may not be willing to part with all three, but it’s easy to see why the Bucks would like to add Jordan’s elite interior defense. They would become serious challengers to the Cavaliers and Celtics with a team built around Jordan, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Eric Bledsoe and Jabari Parker once he returns from from a torn ACL, which is expected in February.

But the Bucks aren’t the only team trying to acquire Jordan, Woelfel reports, as the Raptors, Wizards and Timberwolves have all expressed interest. Haley O’Shaughnessy of the Ringer sees Washington as a prime location, proposing a trade that would send Marcin GortatJason Smith, Tomas Satoransky and a 2019 unprotected first-rounder to L.A. in return.

The other two locations are a tougher fit, as Toronto would probably want to unload center Jonas Valanciunas, who still has two more seasons and more than $34MM left on his current deal. Jordan would be an awkward match beside Karl-Anthony Towns in Minnesota and his addition would mean less playing time for Taj Gibson, who just signed with the Wolves this summer.

Another rumor, addressed last week by Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com, has the Cavaliers getting involved with a package of Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert and possibly the unprotected pick from the Nets. A league source told Vardon the Cavs would likely consider such a deal if they thought it would help them beat the Warriors.

Publicly, the Clippers are downplaying talk of rebuilding, but the prospect becomes more real as they sink in the standings. L.A. is 4-13 since a 4-0 start and currently sits in 10th place in the West, two and a half games out of a playoff spot. Patrick Beverley is out for the year, Blake Griffin is sidelined for two months and Danilo Gallinari and Milos Teodosic haven’t returned from early-season injuries. Jordan has a player option for next season worth $24,119,025 and could opt for unrestricted free agency if he thinks the Clippers’ best days are over.

We want to hear your opinion. If the Clippers decide to move Jordan, where would be the best fit and what should they ask for in return? Please leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 11/25/17 – 12/2/17

Every week, the writers here at Hoops Rumors strive to create interesting original content to complement our news feed.  Here are those segments and features from the last 7 days:

Community Shootaround: Anthony Davis

The Pelicans may be without superstar big man Anthony Davis for the foreseeable future, a painful realization that’s become all too familiar for the New Orleans franchise.

Although no details about Davis’ latest set back – an apparent groin injury – have been announced, he appeared to be in considerable pain in the fourth quarter of the team’s loss to the Jazz Friday night and allegedly left the locker room on crutches.

While Davis was jostling to box out Jazz center Derrick Favors at the time of the injury, it didn’t look as though the pain was related directly to the contact, although that’s merely a non-medical observation.

For the first five seasons of his career, Davis struggled to stay consistently healthy, suffering a series of unrelated injuries that suggest a general fragility more than any one particular troublesome area. Last year, however, he managed to stick it out through a career high 75 contests.

Our question for readers is a simple one, will Davis – unbelievably still just 24 years old – ever shed the injury prone level that has dogged him throughout his career? If you were at the helm of an NBA franchise, could you ever trust investing substantially in a player with Davis’ track record?

It won’t be long before the details as to the extent of the injury are made public and hopefully it’ll have simply looked worse than it actually was.

Unfortunately in Davis’ case, it’s only natural to expect bad news.

Fantasy Hoops: November Notes & Trends

The Rockets had the NBA’s best record during the month of November, going 12-1 behind the play of James Harden, who is my early favorite for MVP this season.NBA: Preseason-New York Knicks at Houston Rockets

Harden was the team’s top scorer in 12 of those 13 contests. He also led the team in assists in all seven games Chris Paul missed, and was the leader in dishes during half the games Paul played. Harden led the league in scoring (34.9 points per game) during the month, and sits second in the assists column with 10.1 per game (Paul had 10.3).

Paul only played six games during the month and while some may worry about the former Clippers point guard cannibalizing Harden’s stats going forward, I wouldn’t buy into that notion. Houston’s high-powered offense can support both stars and that, combined with Harden’s top-level play, makes The Beard fantasy’s No. 1 player going forward.

Here’s more notes and analysis from the month of November:

  • Paul George, who led all players in minutes per contest (39.2) during the month, got off to a slow start with the Thunder. However, he has proven he’s still a top-20 option in fantasy despite the abundance of scoring options around him. George averaged 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game during the month while leading the NBA in steals per game with 2.9 per night.
  • Many criticized the Pacers for “only” landing Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis when they traded away PG13, but both players look like potential long-term starters. Oladipo has been particularly impressive, as he’s putting up All-Star numbers, fueled by opportunity and efficiency. Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Bradley Beal, and Harden are the only players who had at least 18 shot attempts per game in the month and posted a higher field goal percentage than Oladipo.
  • If you trade George for Oladipo in fantasy, I’m not sure who’s getting the better end of the deal. If you net Oladipo and Sabonis, who shot 50% from the field on nearly nine attempts per game during the month, you win the trade.
  • LBJ had an amazing November for the Cavaliers, shooting 58.1% (best among non-bigs) from the field on a whopping 19.7 attempts per game (fourth-highest among all players). He was second in the NBA in points per game (29.6), fourth in assists (8.5) and was one of just 11 players who averaged at least a steal and block per game (min 10 games played) during the month.
  • The Pistons went 9-3 during November and Tobias Harris is a major reason why. The 25-year-old shot an eye-popping 48.6% from behind the arc (an NBA-best among those with at least five attempts per contest), despite making fewer than 35% of his attempts in four of out the last six games. Harris is slightly behind Avery Bradley for the team lead in overall attempts per game (14.3 vs. 14.2) and his role in the offense makes him a locked-in top-60 play going forward.
  • Joel Embiid continues to dominate, but one of the flaws in his game this month has been his three-point shot. He made just 26.7% of his 2.5 attempts per game from behind the arc and it’s possible that teams may start to sag further off of him and dare him to shoot from outside as an approach to mitigate the damage he can do. If he doesn’t improve his stroke, the Sixers big man could see a slight decline in his stats and therefore, in his fantasy value. That risk, along with his injury history, may make him a sell-high candidate, especially if you can nab a top-10 player for him.
  • Only George has more steals per game than Ben Simmons during the month. Simmons’ defensive prowess and ability to fill up the stat sheet (18.6 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game during the month) make him a top-10 play going forward.
  • Nikola Mirotic hasn’t played in November (or yet this season) after being on the wrong end of a physical altercation with teammate Bobby Portis. He could be back as soon as Monday, but it’s unclear what his role will be with Portis and Lauri Markkanen soaking up frontcourt minutes. The Bulls may look to give him minutes in order to showcase him for potential trades, similar to what the Suns may be doing with Greg Monroe. If you have a spare bench spot, Mirotic is worth scooping up.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Statistics are current through Friday morning. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Top Five NBA Restricted Free Agents For 2018

A handful of players eligible for rookie scale extensions during the 2017 offseason signed new deals, with the Timberwolves, Sixers, Nuggets, and Suns locking up Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Gary Harris, and T.J. Warren, respectively. However, that modest, four-player group made 2017 the least eventful year for rookie scale extensions since 2003, putting most of the players who had been extension-eligible on track to become restricted free agents in 2018.

Restricted free agency can be trickier to navigate than unrestricted free agency, which allows a team to sign a player outright. A team with a restricted free agent has the ability to match any offer sheet that player signs, but that doesn’t mean retaining him is a lock — the Hawks, for instance, were unwilling to match what they viewed as an excessive offer sheet for Tim Hardaway Jr. from the Knicks this past offseason.

While restricted free agency can be a boon for certain players, such as Hardaway and Otto Porter, who received larger deals than they might have as UFAs, it can diminish the market for other players. Guys like Nerlens Noel, Alex Len, JaMychal Green, and Nikola Mirotic were on the RFA market for months this offseason and eventually either signed their qualifying offers or accepted short-term deals. Prying a restricted free agent away from another club often requires an aggressive – and perhaps overpriced – offer sheet. Sometimes, there’s just no team out there willing to make that sort of offer for an RFA, which significantly reduces his leverage.

Today, we’re taking a look at a handful of players set to reach the restricted free agent market in 2018 who shouldn’t have to worry about being stuck in limbo for months and then settling for a below-market deal. We expect free agency for these five RFAs-to-be to play out more like it did for Porter or Hardaway than for Noel or Len.

Here are our current picks for the top five restricted free agents for 2018:Aaron Gordon vertical

  1. Aaron Gordon, PF (Magic): Gordon has slowed down a little since his red-hot start to the season, but he’s still on his way to a career year, blowing away his previous career highs in several key categories, including PPG (18..6, RPG (8.4), FG% (.510), 3PG (2.3), and 3PT% (.438). Gordon’s athleticism, his expanding skill set, and his age (22) make him a tantalizing target for any team in need of a power forward. The current management group in Orlando didn’t draft Gordon, so it will be interesting to see if GM John Hammond and president of basketball ops Jeff Weltman are willing to go all-out to retain the former No. 4 overall pick next July.
  2. Clint Capela, C (Rockets): Capela probably isn’t the sort of player who will become a team’s primary offensive option, but he has rapidly turned into one of the more productive and efficient complementary frontcourt players in the NBA. He’s averaging a double-double (13.7 PPG, 11.3 RPG) in just 25.9 minutes per contest this season, and his .670 FG% leads the league. Capela doesn’t shoot from the outside at all, and his free-throw shooting remains a concern, but he has improved his FT% every year since entering the NBA, and has protected the rim admirably (1.7 BPG). The 23-year-old is about to get expensive.
  3. Jabari Parker, F (Bucks): If Parker had stayed healthy for all four of his professional seasons, he might already have a maximum salary extension in hand, like fellow top-two pick Andrew Wiggins. Instead, he’s still recovering from the second ACL tear of his young NBA career, and likely won’t get back on the court until February. As he showed last season, when he averaged 20.1 PPG in 51 games, Parker is capable of being one of the most effective young scorers in the league when he’s healthy. I’m bullish on him finishing the season strong and positioning himself for a lucrative new deal, but his injury history makes him a wild card.
  4. Zach LaVine, G (Bulls): LaVine’s situation is awfully similar to Parker’s. Like Parker, LaVine is coming off a career year (18.9 PPG) which was cut short just after the halfway point by a torn ACL. LaVine’s recovery is moving a little faster than Parker’s though, so we may see him make his Bulls debut this month. Chicago has high hopes for LaVine, one of the key pieces acquired in Jimmy Butler‘s blockbuster, and while the two sides didn’t work out an extension in October, there seems to be little doubt that the Bulls will lock up LaVine to a long-term contract in 2018. The size of that deal may hinge on how the 22-year-old performs upon his return.
  5. Jusuf Nurkic, C (Trail Blazers): After averaging a double-double during his first 20 games with the Blazers near the end of last season, Nurkic has struggled this season to get back to that level. Having recovered from a broken leg, the big man has become a focal point of Portland’s offense and is recording a solid 15.5 PPG, but his FG% has slipped to .460, and his per-minute rebounding numbers are the lowest of his career. Still, at age 23, Nurkic remains a very intriguing long-term prospect, capable of providing value on both ends of the floor, which is why he beats out potential RFAs like Julius Randle, Rodney Hood, Marcus Smart, and Elfrid Payton for this No. 5 spot.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Waiver Order Now Determined By 2017/18 Record

It’s the first day of December, which means the NBA’s waiver order is now determined by a team’s 2017/18 record, rather than its 2016/17 mark. Waiver claims are fairly rare in the NBA, but it’s still worth noting which teams will have the first crack at intriguing players who may be cut over the next few weeks or months.

[RELATED: Other December dates to watch]

Prior to today, the Nets were first in the NBA’s waiver order, followed by the Suns, Lakers, Sixers, and Magic. As of December 1, the teams at the top of the NBA’s waiver order now look like this, as our 2017/18 Reverse Standings show:

  1. Chicago Bulls
  2. Atlanta Hawks
  3. Dallas Mavericks
  4. Sacramento Kings
  5. Phoenix Suns
  6. Memphis Grizzlies
  7. Brooklyn Nets / Los Angeles Lakers (tie)
  8. Charlotte Hornets / Los Angeles Clippers / Oklahoma City Thunder (tie)
  9. Orlando Magic
  10. Miami Heat

Note: Head-to-head record for the current season is used to break ties, if possible. Otherwise, a coin flip determines priority for those tied teams.

Of course, if an appealing target hits waivers, some teams will be be better positioned than others even if their priority isn’t necessarily as high. For instance, even though the Hawks currently have the second-highest waiver priority, they don’t currently have the cap room, trade exception, or disabled player exception necessary to claim a player earning more than the minimum salary.

For the full details on which teams have the cap room or exception(s) necessary to claim a waived player making more than the minimum, check out our breakdown from last month. That piece also includes an explanation of the waiver process, as does our glossary entry on the subject. And be sure to use our Reverse Standings feature throughout the season to determine what the NBA’s ever-shifting waiver order looks like on a given day.

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are in a precarious position, now teetering on the ledge of an existential crisis following Blake Griffin‘s latest significant injury. Suddenly, the team that seemed so valiantly intent on forging ahead without Chris Paul (and then Milos Teodosic and then Patrick Beverley) has been dramatically deflated, dealt a seemingly insurmountable blow that could very well change the franchise’s short-term plans.

Needless to say, the next few months will be of particular interest to various representatives of the team’s pending free agents, several of whom could stand to benefit from increased playing time in Griffin’s absence and/or a significantly expanded role if the team decides to lean into a full-fledged rebuild and trade away veterans.

On paper, the Clippers could end up with substantial cap space, but that’s far from guaranteed considering how many players have options heading into the summer.

Montrezl Harrell, C, 24 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $4MM deal in 2015
One of the biggest potential beneficiaries of the Clippers’ bad luck is Harrell, a 2015 second-round pick who showed glimpses of productivity throughout his first two seasons in the league with Houston. Harrell hasn’t done much to this point in the 2017/18 season but it seems inevitable that he’ll see his playing time and opportunities in general increase over the next two months.

Brice Johnson, PF, 24 (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $3MM deal in 2016
While the absence of Griffin could open up opportunities for Johnson to see more of a role at the big league level, the team would have to fully accept a rebuild in order for the sparsely-used North Carolina product to start seeing consistent action. I’m not sure if the Clips are there yet. Simply put, Johnson hasn’t show much in Los Angeles and the team forfeited the chance to lock him up on the cheap last month when it turned down his rookie option.

Wesley Johnson, SF, 30 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $18MM deal in 2016
After eight underwhelming seasons in the NBA, it’s hard to imagine Johnson landing big money in a crowded free agent market next summer. However, the 30-year-old – who has career averages of 7.6 points and 3.7 rebounds per game – has a player option worth over $6MM that he’ll presumably accept.

DeAndre Jordan, C, 29 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $88MM deal in 2015
Jordan is the closest thing to a marquee name among Los Angeles’ pending free agents. The 29-year-old will be coming off of seven straight seasons as a rain-or-shine starter (10 in total), with off-the-charts rebounding numbers and an All-Star Game under his belt. That being said, Jordan  – who holds a $24MM player option for next season – will need to be careful heading into the summer, considering the market for big men has changed since he signed his last contract. On top of that, any long-term deal would put a club at risk of having that contract turn into an albatross during its back half. Finally, it’s not inconceivable to suggest that the Jordan you could temporarily (kinda, maybe, possibly) justify maxing out was simply a product of CP3’s playmaking abilities. Jordan may very well end up turning down his player option, but there won’t likely be strong market pressure for L.A. or anybody else to offer a huge long-term deal.

Willie Reed, C, 28 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
Now with his third team in three NBA season, Reed will need to show that he’s more than just a journeyman spot starter with legal baggage. While Reed has been used less with the Clippers than he was in Miami last season, his opportunities could increase substantially with Griffin sidelined. I suspect, given the big man’s per-36 numbers, he’ll be able to procure more than the minimum and stick with that team for longer than a single season.
Austin Rivers vertical
Austin Rivers, G, 25 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $35MM deal in 2016
The Clippers took a gamble on Rivers in 2016, offering the largely unproven combo guard a major contract without much of a track record to show for it. Fast forward two seasons and Rivers remains more or less equally underwhelming. Rivers does little across the board and isn’t a particularly effective shooter. It wouldn’t make much sense for Rivers’ camp to turn down his $13MM player option for next season.

Milos Teodosic, PG, 31 (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $12MM deal in 2017
It’s hard to gauge Teodosic’s NBA value, considering he only played two games before falling to a foot injury. As things stand, the romantic notion that Teodosic would drop in from overseas to fill the playmaking hole left by Paul is on the back burner. If the plan was for Teodosic to prove himself in his rookie season, turn down his player option for 2018/19 and then sign a larger contract, it’ll come down to how he fares during the second half of the season, since nobody has yet seen enough to warrant a big investment. It seems likely that the Serbian 31-year-old will be back in the lineup before the end of December, so there’s plenty of time for him to prove himself at the NBA level.

Lou Williams, SG, 32 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $21MM deal in 2015
Over course of the last half decade, Williams has fully embraced an identity as a wildly prolific scorer off the bench. Over the course of the last two seasons alone he’s thrived in systems that have had no reason but to let him loose on their second unit and the volume shooter has shown no signs of slowing down north of 30. It may be a bit much to expect Williams to yield anything in the realm of former Clipper J.J. Redick‘s offseason haul ($23MM for a one-year deal with Philly) but there should be plenty of suitors willing to give 2015’s Sixth Man of the Year a sizable raise over his current $7MM salary.

Player ages as of July 1, 2018. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

December Dates To Watch On NBA Calendar

Near the start of the 2017/18 campaign, we looked ahead and highlighted several dates and deadlines to watch on the NBA calendar throughout the rest of the season. While that list covered the general highlights, it’s worth taking a closer look – with December around the corner – at some of those key dates to keep an eye out for over the next month. Let’s dive in…

Players becoming trade-eligible:

While many NBA players can be traded now, a huge chunk can’t be dealt until December 15, which is the default date for offseason signees to become trade-eligible. Our list of players who become eligible to be moved on December 15 features nearly 100 names, so any clubs eager to make a move could engage in more serious trade talks around mid-December.

For players who signed contracts later in the offseason or who meet certain specific criteria, there are other dates to watch. Jason Terry (Bucks), Andrew Bogut (Lakers), Aaron Brooks (Timberwolves), Alex Len (Suns), Dante Cunningham (Pelicans), Bobby Brown (Rockets), and Dwyane Wade (Cavaliers) will all become trade-eligible between December 15 and the end of the month, while some other offseason signees can’t be dealt until January 15.

Waiver order changes:

Waiver claims are pretty rare in the NBA, since teams must have cap room, a trade exception, or a disabled player exception to claim any player earning more than the minimum salary. Still, it’s worth noting that on December 1, the waiver order changes, with the league using this year’s reverse standings instead of last year’s. That means that the Bulls, Hawks, and Mavericks are on track to move to the top of that list starting on Friday, supplanting the Nets, Suns, and Lakers.

Salary guarantee dates:

Most non-guaranteed salaries won’t become guaranteed until January, but there are a few specific dates to watch in December. Dorian Finney-Smith (Mavericks) will get a bump to his partial guarantee on December 5, while Luke Babbitt (Hawks) will have his full salary guaranteed for 2017/18 if he remains under contract through December 15. You can check out the full details right here.

Christmas Day lineup:

After the NFL gets Thanksgiving to itself in November, the NBA gets its showcase on Christmas Day, December 25. The highlight of this year’s schedule will be a rematch of last year’s Finals, as the Warriors play the Cavaliers in Oakland — that game gets even more interesting if Isaiah Thomas is back by then, which is a distinct possibility. However, there’s something to like about each of the other four matchups as well.

A battle of young bigs will open the day, with Kristaps PorzingisKnicks hosting Joel Embiid and the Sixers; the Wizards/Celtics rivalry will get its latest chapter in Boston; James Harden‘s Rockets will visit his former team, the Thunder; and the new-look Timberwolves will face the young Lakers in Los Angeles to wrap up the Christmas slate.

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