The Beat: Jabari Young On Blazers, Spurs
Nobody knows NBA teams better than beat writers, save for those who draw paychecks with an NBA owner’s signature on them. The reporters who are with the teams they cover every day gain an intimate knowledge of the players, coaches and executives they write about and develop sources who help them break news and stay on top of rumors.
We at Hoops Rumors will be chatting with beat writers from around the league and sharing their responses to give you a better perspective on how and why teams make some of their most significant moves. Last time, we spoke with Diamond Leung of the Bay Area News Group about the Warriors. Click here to see all of the previous editions of this series.
Today, we gain insight on the Spurs and the Trail Blazers from Jabari Young, who’s moving from Comcast SportsNet Northwest to the San Antonio Express-News. You can follow Jabari on Twitter at @JabariJYoung, and check out his archive of material for Comcast SportsNet Northwest right here.
Hoops Rumors: You spent the past season covering the Blazers and LaMarcus Aldridge, and now you’re following his footsteps to San Antonio to once more cover the Spurs. So, given your unique insight here, what do you think he found so appealing about the Spurs, and what persuaded him to change his mind about staying with the Trail Blazers?
Jabari Young: It’s well-known LaMarcus has always been intrigued by the Spurs. His respect for Tim Duncan is also well-documented. I think his decision to end his tenure in Portland was a mixture of an opportunity to learn from Tim firsthand, be coached by Gregg Popovich, be closer to winning a championship than any point of his career, and return to Texas (his home state). He likes the team’s unselfish style, and will not try to emulate Tim one bit, but leave his own mark with the Spurs playing his game and becoming a part of their championship history. The Spurs have everything Aldridge needs from top to bottom to finally win a ring, which is important to him. After all, he took less money to join the Spurs.
Hoops Rumors: The last time the Spurs made a free agent signing nearly as splashy, it was Richard Jefferson, and that didn’t go so well. What have the Spurs learned since then that will help them incorporate a star like Aldridge into their system?
Jabari Young: With Popovich at the helm, the Spurs have learned not to fall in love with just any big name. It has to be someone they feel will enter the organization and fit right into the way they do things, led by Popovich/Duncan. LaMarcus was the perfect fit because of his willingness to adapt to this philosophy, but at the same time play his game. I feel the Spurs will allow Aldridge to play his style and he’ll also adjust. Plain and simple, Aldridge is arguably the best power forward in the NBA and wanted to be in San Antonio. It’s not every day the Spurs experience a top free agent like Aldridge wanting to join. With Duncan possibly in his final year(s), Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili on their last run, Aldridge, along with Kawhi Leonard, will be handed the keys to usher the Spurs into a new era. The Spurs trust that Aldridge has the right tools to help them stay afloat after the “Big Three” have departed. He has the basketball IQ and wants to win at this point in his career. It should be a good fit for both parties.
Hoops Rumors: Why do you think the Blazers signed Enes Kanter to a max offer sheet but haven’t done so, at least so far, with Tristan Thompson?
Jabari Young: The Blazers wanted to add a more established offensive threat in Enes Kanter to the mix. It’s not that they aren’t high on Mason Plumlee, but adding Kanter would’ve helped take pressure off Damian Lillard on offense. Tristan Thompson doesn’t pose the same threat on offense as Kanter does, and the Blazers are invested in power forwards Meyers Leonard and Noah Vonleh. Adding Thompson would only disturb the progress of Leonard and Vonleh. Kanter, as a center, would’ve been a different type of signing.
Hoops Rumors: Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and David West won’t make as much put together this season as Danny Green will on his $10MM salary, and Green probably could have signed elsewhere for more money. What is it about the Spurs that convinces all these guys to make financial sacrifices?
Jabari Young: For a player like Danny Green, I feel he’s learned the grass isn’t always greener (see what I did there :-) ) on the other side. Take less money, be in contention for another championship, no pressure as being an overpaid signing. He’ll still earn more money than last season and already has a solid role within the Spurs system. Most guys would chase the money, ignoring everything else. Those players who have taken less to stay put realize they will not only be taken care of financially, but personally, and have the opportunity to win championships. Add that to the fact the Spurs are well-known for protecting their players, and the community support, some just feel it’s better to remain and take less than to take more, be on a bad team, have a bad role, and no real chance to win. Sometimes less is more, but it takes a certain player to realize this. Danny Green is that type of player.
Hoops Rumors: The Blazers had seven free agents at the end of the season, including Aldridge, and they didn’t re-sign any of them. Is there any one of them who you’re surprised they didn’t bring back once they learned Aldridge was going elsewhere?
Jabari Young: So much was depending on the future of Aldridge that once he walked, even if all their free agents were still available, it would’ve been hard to see them re-signing. What Blazers GM Neil Olshey did was alter the face of the franchise with Lillard at the helm, adding younger players who will buy into it being Lillard’s team. With that said, you would think Wesley Matthews, with all he’s given the Blazers over the years and the respect he’s earned among the fans in Portland, would have gotten some kind of offer from the Blazers. His injury was serious, so it’s hard to knock the Blazers for not pursuing his services again, but the injury did occur in a Portland uniform; hence, one would think the Blazers would take care of him. But it’s a business, and they treated it like one by moving on.
Hoops Rumors: Does Jimmer Fredette have what it takes to stick with the Spurs?
Jabari Young: He’s a shooter, which is always welcome in San Antonio (see Matt Bonner). Thing is, will he make enough of an impact to stay? The Spurs will not just give him a roster spot. He’ll have to earn it. How bad he wants to be a part of this team, time will tell. But if he makes the opening night roster, he could be a threat. Right now, I’d say it’s 50/50 he sticks.
The Beat: Diamond Leung On The Warriors
Nobody knows NBA teams better than beat writers, save for those who draw paychecks with an NBA owner’s signature on them. The reporters who are with the teams they cover every day gain an intimate knowledge of the players, coaches and executives they write about and develop sources who help them break news and stay on top of rumors.
We at Hoops Rumors will be chatting with beat writers from around the league and sharing their responses to give you a better perspective on how and why teams make some of their most significant moves. Last time, we spoke with Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe about the Celtics. Click here to see all of the previous editions of this series.
Today, we gain insight on the Warriors from Diamond Leung of the Bay Area News Group. You can follow Diamond on Twitter at @Diamond83, and click here to check out his stories.
Speights Savors Title As Contract Year Looms
The Larry O’Brien Trophy glistened in front of Marreese Speights this afternoon as about two dozen family, friends and well-wishers clutched paper plates of food in one hand and cell phone cameras in the other while they crammed into a tiny room at the Childs Park Recreation Center in his native St. Petersburg, Florida. The crowded but low-key hometown celebration, the latest stop for the trophy as the Warriors take it on tour around the country, served as a coda to a short but proud offseason for Speights and the Warriors, who start training camp a week from Tuesday.
Three months and three days have passed since the Warriors finished off the Cavaliers for the franchise’s first NBA title in 40 years, and soon begins Golden State’s attempt to win a second in a row. It’s an accomplishment that’s happened so often during the lifetime of the 28-year-old Speights, a period in which 10 NBA champions were the same team that had won the year before, that it almost seems like a rite of passage for the truly elite. Speights doesn’t quite see it that way.
“No, we’re already in a different class, so repeating would just be a bonus,” he told Hoops Rumors, “but hopefully we get another one.”
The 6’10” center/forward nonetheless made it clear as he spoke during today’s event that the team is hungry to add to its trophy collection, and this season, Speights has extra motivation. The three-year, $11MM contract that he signed with the Warriors in 2013 expires at season’s end, and he’s set to hit free agency just as the salary cap is projected to catapult from its present $70MM to $89MM. The Andy Miller client nonetheless insists that he won’t change the way he plays just because it’s a contract year, and that he isn’t focused on the strength of next summer’s market for him.
“I really don’t worry about things I can’t control,” Speights said. “As long as I come into camp, as long as I start the season off good, everything will be all right. So, I’m just focused on the things I can control.”
The Warriors have so far paid to keep their talented team together. They gave Draymond Green a new five-year, $82MM deal in restricted free agency this summer, and rewarded Leandro Barbosa with a one-year, $2.5MM deal after he spent last season making the minimum. They also cast luxury tax concerns aside to pick up their $3.185MM team option on Speights, who made the most of his 15.9 minutes per game this past season. He averaged 10.4 points and 4.3 rebounds per contest, numbers that extrapolate to 23.6 points and 9.7 boards per 36 minutes.
Speights applauded the front office’s efforts to maintain continuity and chemistry, and he also has a positive impression of the team’s most prominent newcomer. Jason Thompson arrives after a series of July trades in which the Warriors shipped out David Lee for Gerald Wallace and flipped Wallace for Thompson, while Thompson went from the Kings to the Sixers and finally to the champs.
“He’s a good player. He’s been in the league. He’s going on his eighth year. He played with Sacramento. He’s going to come to our team and bring us something we need, or something that somebody else can’t bring,” Speights said of Thompson. “So, hopefully he comes in and contributes and that’ll be the role with him.”
Coach Steve Kerr envisions Thompson fitting in somewhere amid a frontcourt that boasts Green, Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli and James Michael McAdoo in addition to Thompson and Speights. The role that Lee played last season is “up for grabs,” as Kerr recently told Tim Kawakami of the Bay Area News Group. Thus, Speights, whose minutes in the playoffs this spring were curtailed by a right calf strain, would appear to have a chance to inherit some more playing time. Still, just as with his looming free agency, he won’t focus on decisions that rest in the hands of others.
“Like I said, I don’t know. I just got to worry about things I can control,” Speights said. “I don’t know what my role’s going to be. I’m just going to go into training camp and be the best player I can be, and hopefully, I have a role. So, I’m looking forward to training camp.”
The 16th overall pick from the 2008 draft is a veteran of seven NBA seasons, but he nonetheless made it clear that he’s eager to learn more and improve himself. Not long from now, he’ll learn what it’s like to defend a title, and soon after that, just how much championship experience is worth at the bargaining table.
Poll: 2015/16 Team Power Rankings (No. 28)
The start of NBA training camps is less than two weeks away, and teams are in the process of finalizing their preseason rosters. Every new season brings with it the hope for each franchise that it will conclude with the hoisting of the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy. But for the more jaded fans — or practical, depending on your outlook — not every team has a realistic shot at making the playoffs, much less at being the last team standing when all is said and done and the playoffs have concluded.
We at Hoops Rumors want to know what you, the reader, think about each team’s chances this coming campaign. To help facilitate that, we’ll be posting a series of polls asking you to vote on where in the standings each franchise is likely to end the season. We’ll be going in reverse order, beginning with the question of which team you believe will occupy the very bottom of the standings. So please cast your vote below for the franchise you expect to end the season with the third worst overall record, or at No. 28 overall. But don’t end your involvement with the simple click of a button. Take to the comments section below to share your thoughts and opinions on why you voted the way that you did. We look forward to what you have to say.
Previous Selections:
- No. 30: 76ers
- No. 29: Knicks
The No 28 Ranked Team For the 2015/16 Season Is...
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Nuggets 21% (102)
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Lakers 16% (79)
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Nets 13% (64)
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Timberwolves 8% (40)
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Magic 8% (37)
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Trail Blazers 7% (36)
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Jazz 6% (27)
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Suns 4% (21)
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Kings 4% (18)
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Pistons 2% (11)
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Cavaliers 2% (9)
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Hornets 1% (6)
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Mavericks 1% (6)
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Warriors 1% (6)
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Celtics 1% (4)
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Bucks 1% (4)
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Bulls 0% (2)
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Clippers 0% (2)
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Thunder 0% (2)
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Rockets 0% (1)
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Pacers 0% (1)
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Grizzlies 0% (1)
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Spurs 0% (1)
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Raptors 0% (1)
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Wizards 0% (1)
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Hawks 0% (0)
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Heat 0% (0)
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Pelicans 0% (0)
Total votes: 482
If you’re a Trade Rumors app user, click here.
Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 9/13/15-9/19/15
In addition to our weekly chat, which Chuck Myron facilitates every Wednesday, we have a second opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap, or the NBA draft? Drop me a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com or @EddieScarito on Twitter. Now for this week’s inquiries:
“Do you think Doc Rivers was playing coy when he said the team won’t trade Jamal Crawford? Or do you see the Clippers keeping him the full season?” — James
I think Rivers will wait to see how Lance Stephenson will fit in with the team before he makes a final decision regarding Crawford. But beyond that, the Clippers are pretty stocked in the backcourt with Austin Rivers and J.J. Redick also on hand, and who will both cut into Crawford’s playing time. The most sensible path for the Clippers to take would probably be to hang onto Crawford until December, then try to deal him to fill any holes in the team’s rotation. The benefit of holding off on a deal is that it would give the team a better chance to assess its roster, as well as for them to hope that some other teams have a run of early season injuries in their backcourts, thus driving up the asking price for Crawford. Holding off dealing Crawford until the season is underway would also protect the Clippers in the event one of their players were to go down with a serious injury. In the end, I do think Crawford is traded, though it might not be until the February trade deadline.
“Should the Knicks seriously consider trading Carmelo Anthony?” — Vinnie
I think it’s getting to that point, yes. Though, for full-disclosure purposes, I think New York should have worked out a sign-and-trade last offseason rather than ink ‘Melo to his current deal. I’m not the biggest Anthony fan out there, and I firmly believe he needs to be the second or third best player on a team if he ever hopes to win an NBA title. That will likely never be the case with the Knicks, and with him being on the wrong side of 30, Anthony’s almost certainly in his decline phase. With their wealth of roster needs, and distinct lack of future draft picks, the Knicks are in dire need of a complete tear down, which will be difficult to accomplish as long as Anthony’s nearly $23MM salary is on the books for New York.
Of course, Anthony has a big say in all of this, given his no-trade clause. But if the Knicks get off to a slow start and hope for the postseason appears lost, I have a feeling Melo may be more amenable to relocating, though it will be extremely difficult to move that big a salary during the season. If he’s traded, it would likely occur after the season. That would net the Knicks a better return as well as expand the list of potential trade partners.
“Who do you predict will win the Rookie of the Year award for this season?” — Aaron
This is a tough one to answer prior to regular season rosters and starting lineups being set, but I’ll give it a go. The ROTY award is much more about the situation each first year player is placed in than which player is the most talented. Playing time is a huge determining factor, because this is primarily a stats-driven award. So keeping that in mind, I’d have to say the early favorite is the Sixers’ Jahlil Okafor. Philly doesn’t have all that much talent around him, so he should receive ample playing time, as well as become the team’s primary offensive weapon. That combination bodes well for Okafor to earn himself the award … if he can remain healthy and teams don’t park multiple defenders in the paint area to stop him.
“If the Isiah Thomas returning to the Knicks doomsday scenario does indeed come to pass, will Phil Jackson remain with the team?” — Nathan
Quick note, I love the phrasing of your question. It was definitely written by a longtime Knicks fan. I’ve had numerous nightmares involving Isiah making his return to the Knicks, and I hope and pray that it never comes to pass. But unfortunately, Thomas either has some serious blackmail material on James Dolan stashed away, or those two are simply destined to be together…in a basketball sense, of course. I fear as long as Dolan owns the team Isiah will always be lurking in the shadows awaiting his chance to strike, sort of like the antagonist in the film “It Follows.”
If this terrible event should indeed come to pass and Thomas is brought back into the fold with the Knicks, I can’t see any way that he and Jackson could co-exist. I should also mention that I don’t believe Jackson will complete his five year deal with the team regardless of Thomas’ whereabouts. So I could definitely see a scenario where Phil decides he’d rather be on the beach than at Madison Square Garden, and Dolan using that as a reason to bring back Thomas. No matter what the circumstances, I don’t see Thomas and Jackson being able to work together for very long, if at all. All I do know for sure is that I’m actively rooting against the New York Liberty to win even a single game next season. Maybe that would quell the return of Thomas talk? But these are the Knicks after all, so who knows at this point what it would take to make Dolan give up on Thomas for good…
Well, that’s all the space that I have for this week. Thanks to all those who sent in their inquiries. Please keep them coming, and I’ll see you back here next Saturday.
Hoops Rumors Originals 9/13/15-9/19/15
Here’s a look back at the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this past week…
- In his weekly column, Sam Amico, the founder and editor of AmicoHoops.net and a broadcast journalist for Fox Sports Ohio, looked at the effect George Karl could have on the Kings.
- Chuck Myron broke down all of the contract scenarios for restricted free agent Tristan Thompson.
- I handed out my 2015 NBA Draft grades to the teams of the Pacific Division.
- If you missed the week’s live chat, you can view the transcript here.
- Chuck ran down the players who have partially guaranteed deals for the 2015/16 campaign.
- As a part of our continuing series, “The Beat,” we interviewed Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe. You can follow Adam on Twitter at @AdamHimmelsbach, and click here to check out his stories on BostonGlobe.com.
- Chuck interviewed Dave King of SB Nation’s Bright Side of the Sun.
- Chris Crouse looked at Tyler Zeller as an extension candidate.
- I broke down the 2015/16 salary cap commitments for the Kings and the Spurs.
- Chuck ran down who the longest tenured primary basketball executives around the league are.
- Zach Links highlighted some of the better basketball blogs around in his weekly installment of Hoops Links.
- Chuck looked at where all of the Celtics players who have been traded since July 2014 are currently.
- We asked readers to vote on who they would select if they had the chance to redo the the 2003 NBA Draft. Here are the results for the No. 18, No. 19, and No. 20 picks.
- Chuck looked at the verbal agreements made this offseason that fell apart.
- If you missed any of our daily reader-driven discussions, be sure to check out the Community Shootaround archives.
- Chuck ran down all the players who have signed qualifying offers over the years.
- Here’s how you can follow Hoops Rumors on social media and RSS feeds.
- I answered reader questions in our Weekly Mailbag.
- We reviewed our commenting policy. Play nice everyone.
- We asked readers to rank where each NBA team will finish the 2015/16 campaign. Here are the results for teams No. 30 and No. 29.
Hoops Rumors Community Shootaround 9/18/15
The Bulls currently have a bit of a logjam at the power forward position heading into training camp. Veteran Pau Gasol is the expected starter, but after him things become a bit muddled. The remainder of minutes at the four spot will need to be divvied up between Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, rookie Bobby Portis, Cameron Bairstow, and offseason signee Cristiano Felicio. While not all of these players are assured of a regular season roster spot, new head coach Fred Hoiberg will certainly have some tough calls to make, not just during the preseason, but over the course of each and every contest throughout the season.
This brings me to the topic of the day: Who should the Bulls’ power forward rotation consist of during the 2015/16 season?
Time for you to play head coach and make the call. Should Gasol be utilized off the bench to better take advantage of his versatility, or should he indeed remain the starter? As for the rest of the rotation, who makes the cut, and what should be the minutes allotments between those players? If you feel that the team is too stacked at the four, who would you trade, and why? Take to the comments section below to share your thoughts and opinions on the subject. We look forward to what you have to say.
Poll: 2015/16 Team Power Rankings (No. 29)
The start of NBA training camps is less than two weeks away, and teams are in the process of finalizing their preseason rosters. Every new season brings with it the hope for each franchise that it will conclude with the hoisting of the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy. But for the more jaded fans — or practical, depending on your outlook — not every team has a realistic shot at making the playoffs, much less at being the last team standing when all is said and done and the playoffs have concluded.
We at Hoops Rumors want to know what you, the reader, think about each team’s chances this coming campaign. To help facilitate that, we’ll be posting a series of polls asking you to vote on where in the standings each franchise is likely to end the season. We’ll be going in reverse order, beginning with the question of which team you believe will occupy the very bottom of the standings. So please cast your vote below for the franchise you expect to end the season with the second worst overall record, or at No. 29 overall. But don’t end your involvement with the simple click of a button. Take to the comments section below to share your thoughts and opinions on why you voted the way that you did. We look forward to what you have to say.
Previous Rankings:
- No. 30: 76ers
The No. 29 Ranked Team For the 2015/16 Season Is...
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Knicks 20% (81)
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Nuggets 15% (59)
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Nets 11% (42)
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Lakers 10% (41)
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Timberwolves 8% (32)
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Trail Blazers 8% (31)
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Magic 5% (21)
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Jazz 3% (13)
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Pistons 3% (11)
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Kings 3% (11)
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Thunder 2% (8)
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Cavaliers 2% (7)
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Warriors 2% (6)
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Hornets 1% (5)
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Suns 1% (5)
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Bulls 1% (4)
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Celtics 1% (3)
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Grizzlies 1% (3)
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Bucks 1% (3)
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Mavericks 1% (2)
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Rockets 1% (2)
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Pacers 1% (2)
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Heat 1% (2)
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Hawks 0% (1)
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Clippers 0% (1)
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Spurs 0% (1)
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Raptors 0% (1)
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Pelicans 0% (0)
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Wizards 0% (0)
Total votes: 398
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2015 NBA Draft Grades: Pacific Division
The 2015 NBA Draft is squarely in the rearview and a number of draftees have already provided a taste of what is to come with their summer league play. I held off on my grades until now because I wanted a better context in which to evaluate each team’s selections, with free agency and summer league providing greater perspective. Sometimes, selecting the best available player isn’t the best course of action and it is wiser to nab a player who fits a clear need, which should always be considered when rating how each front office fared in the draft. I’ve already run down my thoughts on the Atlantic, Central, and Southeast Divisions, and next up is a look at the Pacific Division:
Golden State Warriors
Team Needs: Frontcourt depth.
Draft Picks:
- No. 30 Overall — Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA
The Warriors didn’t have many needs entering this year’s NBA Draft, which is usually the case with teams that win an NBA title and aren’t hit with a wave of free agent defections afterwards. This allowed Golden State to take a gamble on Looney with the final selection of the first round. The forward out of UCLA is unlikely to contribute much, if anything, during the 2015/16 campaign, courtesy of a hip surgery in August that is expected to keep him out of action for four to six months. However, this isn’t a huge blow to the team, since Looney wasn’t likely to see much playing time anyway this season on a stacked Warriors squad.
Missing training camp and most, if not all, of the 2015/16 season certainly won’t help speed Looney’s development along, but the Warriors can certainly afford to be patient with the young player. As a freshman at UCLA, the 19-year-old averaged 11.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.3 steals in 30.9 minutes per night, earning Second Team All-Pac-12 and Pac-12 All-Freshman Team honors along the way.
Questions still exist about Looney’s NBA position, as he is saddled with the dreaded tweener label. He doesn’t quite shoot well enough to be a small forward on a full-time basis, and he’ll need to add bulk to his 220 pound frame if he wants to survive prolonged exposure to some of the league’s bigger, stronger power forwards in the paint. But all quibbles aside, Golden State landed a talented young player with a tantalizing upside using the last pick of the first round. The team will probably just have to wait a couple of seasons before its investment in Looney will pay off.
Overall Draft Grade: B. It’s difficult to find fault in the NBA champs landing a player who possesses lottery-level talent at the bottom of the first round. It’s a solid gamble by GM Bob Myers, though it’s unclear what position Looney is best suited for in the league.
Los Angeles Clippers
Team Needs: Depth at center.
Draft Picks:
- No. 56 Overall — Branden Dawson, F, Michigan State*
*Acquired from the Pelicans in exchange for cash.
The Clippers were without a first-round pick this year because their pick went to Boston as compensation for the hiring of Doc Rivers. The Celtics used that selection, No. 28 overall, to nab long-range bomber R.J. Hunter out of Georgia State. It’s difficult to make a case that Rivers wasn’t worth the sacrifice, especially given how he held the Clippers organization together amid the Donald Sterling scandal. It can also be argued that not having a first-rounder helped the franchise in a way, seeing as how it didn’t need to hand out another fully guaranteed deal, a benefit because the Clippers are nearly $11MM into luxury tax territory.
The franchise was also without a second-round pick, though Rivers was able to purchase one from New Orleans. While there weren’t many alternatives still left on the board at No. 56, I’d argue that the team could have saved its money and not missed a beat. Dawson is an excellent athlete who is a strong rebounder, though he’s too short at 6’7″, or 6’5″ without shoes, to be an effective power forward in the NBA. The former Michigan State Spartan isn’t nearly a good enough shooter to play the three, which will certainly limit his usefulness. Dawson is more than likely ticketed for the D-League or overseas, and it would be quite a surprise if he makes an impact in the league anytime soon.
Overall Draft Grade: B-. I bumped up the Clippers’ grade from a C- because of Doc Rivers, who is arguably more valuable than any player the team would have nabbed at No. 28 overall. But the addition of Dawson feels unnecessary given the team’s frontcourt depth, as well as his size and offensive limitations.
Los Angeles Lakers
Team Needs: Talent and depth at every position.
Draft Picks:
- No. 2 Overall — D’Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State
- No. 27 Overall — Larry Nance Jr., PF, Wyoming
- No. 34 Overall — Anthony Brown, SF, Stanford
The Lakers entered this draft with needs at virtually every spot on the court. The team had to make a choice between big man Jahlil Okafor, who is regarded as the best offensive center in the entire draft class, and Ohio State playmaker D’Angelo Russell, who rocketed up draft boards as the 2014/15 season progressed. It was a tough call, and it will be a few seasons before we’ll know if the Lakers made the correct choice.
Still, Nabbing a point guard makes sense, especially in today’s backcourt-driven NBA. Russell is a fantastic passer and defender who can also shoot the lights out when he’s on. But he’s extremely raw, and he did not fare that well in summer league play. Lakers fans believing he’ll be a savior this season should dial down those expectations quite a bit. Russell has star potential, though it will likely be a rough ride at first. It’s easy to make an argument that the team should have taken Okafor, especially given the lack of true centers making their way into the NBA nowadays, but I can’t fault the Lakers for taking a chance on Russell, who is one of my favorite players in this year’s crop of draftees.
The selection of Nance at No. 27 was a surprise, and a bit of a head-scratcher given the team’s many needs. Nance is an intriguing player, thanks to his high motor, impressive wingspan and NBA-ready frame, but he’s not a good enough outside shooter or post player to make an impact on offense. A number of other players who were still available at No. 27 appear to have higher upsides and more useful skills than Nance does, and that’s why I’m down on the Lakers making this pick.
I’m more enthusiastic about the selection of Brown at No. 34 overall. While the former Stanford wing lacks elite athleticism, he has a high basketball IQ, and he’s a solid outside shooter. Brown is unlikely ever to be a starter in the NBA, but he has the makings of a solid future rotation player. He’ll need to log some serious time in the D-League to aid his development, however.
Overall Draft Grade: B+. The Lakers may regret passing on Okafor, but Russell is an intriguing, exciting young prospect who should give the fanbase hope for a better tomorrow. I’m not sold on the selection of Nance, especially given some of the players still available at that draft slot.
Phoenix Suns
Team Needs: Outside shooting, rim protector, backcourt depth.
Draft Picks:
- No. 13 Overall — Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
The Suns are still in the process of picking up the pieces from their failed multiple point guard experiment, and the team’s roster is in a state of flux. One glaring hole the team has is the lack of a wing who can stretch the floor and make other teams pay from beyond the arc on a nightly basis. Well, Phoenix certainly did its best to address that need in this year’s draft, landing Kentucky freshman Devin Booker at No. 13 overall. I’m still a bit surprised that Booker slipped past the Hornets at No. 9 overall, seeing as Charlotte also needs shooters, and Booker is arguably the best long-range bomber in this year’s draft class.
Booker is a smart player who has nearly perfect mechanics on his jump shot, and he moves extremely well without the ball. The question mark with Booker is his lack of elite athleticism and quickness. That’s not to say that he’s a lumbering player, but he may have some difficulty guarding some of the more explosive wings in the league, and I’m not sold that he’ll be able to create his own shot off the dribble consistently. Still, he should quickly evolve into one of the better spot-up shooters in the league.
My only issue with the Suns selecting Booker is that Kelly Oubre, who is a superior defender and athlete, was still available at No. 13. Oubre isn’t in Booker’s class as a shooter, but his all-around game is more enticing, and I believe that Oubre has a much higher upside than Booker does overall.
Overall Draft Grade: B+. Phoenix lands the best shooter in the draft, though minor concerns exist regarding Booker’s speed and athleticism. The Suns definitely addressed one of their primary needs, and it’s hard to take them to task for it. Overall, this is a very solid pick for Ryan McDonough.
Sacramento Kings
Team Needs: Stretch four, rim protector, outside shooting.
Draft Picks:
- No. 6 Overall — Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
The Kings hope that they solved one of their most pressing needs by nabbing Cauley-Stein with the sixth overall pick. Sacramento has been looking to pair center DeMarcus Cousins with a rim-protecting big for the last two seasons, and Cauley-Stein was the best one available in this year’s draft. Cauley-Stein is perhaps the most NBA-ready player in the entire draft, and I’d be surprised if he is not starting from day one. Concerns exist about his offensive skills, which mainly consist of cashing in on lobs and transition buckets at this stage. But he’s an excellent athlete and a fantastic defender who reminds me quite a bit of Tyson Chandler. It took Chandler a few seasons in the league to become a solid player, and I expect the same for Cauley-Stein, who’s nonetheless almost assuredly a player who will have a long, productive NBA career if he remains healthy.
I have two potential concerns regarding this pick, though. First, if Rondo is not the long-term answer at point guard, Sacramento may end up kicking itself for passing on Emmanuel Mudiay, who went to the Nuggets at pick No. 7. Mudiay is a mystery at this point, but he has the physical tools and ability to become a major star in the NBA. My second concern is how Cauley-Stein, who arrives with some question marks regarding his attitude and love for the game, will fit in with what could be an extremely volatile locker room in Sacramento this season. If things turn toxic there, it will be interesting to see how Cauley-Stein reacts and if it sets back his development.
Overall Draft Grade: A-. Sacramento lands one of the best defenders in the draft, as well as fills one of its most glaring needs. Hopefully, the team won’t come to rue the day it passed on Mudiay to land Cauley-Stein.
Contract Scenarios For Tristan Thompson
It’s crunch time for Tristan Thompson. Training camp starts in less than two weeks, and October 1st is the last day for Thompson to accept his qualifying offer from the Cavaliers. The Rich Paul client could let that date pass and continue to be a restricted free agent, but it seems much more likely that a resolution of some sort will come before then.
The former No. 4 overall pick is not without attractive choices. The Cavaliers have apparently been willing to give him $80MM over five years since his free agency began July 1st, but Thompson believes he can do better. He’s reportedly prepared to sign the qualifying offer if the Cavs don’t deliver a max deal, and Paul has said that if Thompson does take that qualifying offer, which would set him up for unrestricted free agency next summer, the power forward wouldn’t re-sign with the Cavs in 2016. Paul, who just watched client Norris Cole sign his qualifying offer from the Pelicans, apparently believes Thompson can receive a max deal from his hometown Raptors next summer, while another report indicated that Paul has three teams willing to pay him the max if he hits the open market next year.
[RELATED POST: 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings]
Normally, the qualifying offer would entail a financial sacrifice that wouldn’t make sense for a top free agent. However, the spike in the salary cap projected for 2016/17 changes the equation for Thompson. Here’s what a five-year, $80MM contract, like the one the Cavs are apparently offering to Thompson, might look like:
Five-year, $80MM contract
2015/16: $13,913,044
2016/17: $14,956,522
2017/18: $16,000,001
2018/19: $17,043,479
2019/20: $18,086,957
Total: $80,000,000
Here’s what Thompson would make if the Cavs relented and gave him a max deal this year:
Max contract this year from Cavs
2015/16: $16,407,500
2016/17: $17,638,063
2017/18: $18,868,625
2018/19: $20,099,188
2019/20: $21,329,750
Total: $94,343,125
Now, here’s what Thompson would get if he signed his qualifying offer and followed it up by signing a max deal with another team next summer, assuming the NBA’s 2016/17 maximum salary for a player with Thompson’s level of experience comes in at the projected $20.4MM:
Qualifying offer, then leave for max deal
2015/16: $6,777,589
2016/17: $20,400,000 (figure based on projection)
2017/18: $21,318,000 (figure based on projection)
2018/19: $22,236,000 (figure based on projection)
2019/20: $23,154,000 (figure based on projection)
Total: $93,885,589 (figure based on projection)
As you can see, the totals in those last two scenarios are pretty close. So, if the Cavs believe that Thompson can indeed score a max deal elsewhere this summer, they’d have reason to exceed $80MM in their offer.
Let’s look at a couple of other scenarios that could come into play. The Trail Blazers are the only team with enough cap flexibility as of now to sign Thompson to a max offer sheet. It seems unlikely, but Portland signed Enes Kanter to a max offer sheet earlier this summer before the Thunder matched, so we can’t entirely discount the idea. Here’s what Thompson would make on that:
Max offer sheet
2015/16: $16,407,500
2016/17: $17,145,838
2017/18: $17,844,175
2018/19: $18,622,513
Total: $70,060,025
(Estimated 2019/20 max: $28,822,000)
I added an estimate for the 2019/20 max for which Thompson would be eligible, for comparison’s sake, since an offer sheet could only extend for four years while a deal with the Cavs could run for five. If Thompson can get a max deal in 2019, the offer sheet would be more lucrative for him in the long run, though it’s difficult to project four years into the future.
Qualifying offer, then re-sign with Cavs
2015/16: $6,777,589
2016/17: $20,400,000 (figure based on projection)
2017/18: $21,930,000 (figure based on projection)
2018/19: $23,460,000 (figure based on projection)
2019/20: $24,990,000 (figure based on projection)
2020/21: $26,520,000 (figure based on projection)
Total: $124,077,589 (figure based on projection)
Finally, perhaps the most lucrative hypothetical involved would be one that Paul has said Thompson won’t consider. That would entail him playing on his qualifying offer this season and re-signing with the Cavs next summer. He would be able to take advantage of a surging salary cap to make a projected amount of more than $124MM over six years. The first five years of that scenario would add up to $97,557,589, greater than $3MM more than he would get if he simply signed a five-year, maximum-salary contract with the Cavs this summer.
Of course, that doesn’t take into consideration the estimated 2020/21 max of $30.235MM that Thompson could get if he signed a five-year deal with the Cavs this year. So, let’s say that Thompson signs in the next couple of weeks for five years at the max and comes up with another max deal when he hits free agency again in 2020. He’d make an estimated $124,578,125 over the next six seasons, roughly $500K more than he would make in that same period if he signed his qualifying offer and took the projected five-year max from the Cavs next year.
Still, the difference is miniscule enough to suggest that all the hand-wringing over the past two and a half months has been for little reason. Of course, the caveat is Cleveland’s willingness to do the max at any point. If the Cavs aren’t willing to pay Thompson the max now, it’s reasonable to assume they won’t be willing to do so next summer, especially when the max would entail a starting salary of about $4MM more. The luxury tax threshold is projected to be much higher for 2016/17, so that would alleviate some concern for Cleveland, but with a new contract for Timofey Mozgov due a year from now, and LeBron James poised to score yet another more lucrative max deal of his own, the payroll headaches figure to remain.
So, much of it largely comes down to the willingness of both sides to bet on whether Thompson can command the max from one team or another next year. Thompson and Paul seem ready to wager that he will. Soon, we’ll see if the Cavs follow suit.
Which of these scenarios above do you think is the most likely outcome? Leave a comment to share your thoughts.