Hoops Rumors Originals

Hoops Rumors Chat Transcript

August 26th, 2015 at 4:04pm CST by Chuck Myron

4:04pm: We hosted the weekly live chat.

3:00pm: J.R. Smith and the Cavs reached a deal within the past week, and so did Jason Terry and the Rockets, and intriguing names like Jeff Adrien and Henry Sims came off the board, too. That leaves three key unsigned players who are all clients of Rich Paul, as I noted this week when I examined how negotiations for the players he represents have gone in the past. Tristan Thompson, Norris Cole and No. 32 overall pick Montrezl Harrell are still without deals, but that surely won’t be the same for too much longer, since training camps begin in a month.

We can discuss them and many others in today’s live chat.

Too Many Guaranteed Deals Leave Pistons In Bind

August 26th, 2015 at 11:54am CST by Chuck Myron

NBA teams commonly carry more than 15 players during the offseason, when they’re allowed as many as 20, but just about every summer, a few teams end up in an especially tenuous situation. This year, three teams — the Timberwolves, Celtics and Pistons, have already promised fully guaranteed salaries to more than 15 players. The Celtics had 17 full guarantees before they waived Zoran Dragic, though the Heat had sent over enough cash to cover his salary when they traded Dragic to Boston earlier in the offseason. Boston, like Minnesota, now has 16 full guarantees, and while both teams are in a tough spot, the Pistons face perhaps the most difficult decisions, since they have 17 full guarantees and must offload not one but two fully guaranteed deals.

The question marks regarding the health of Brandon Jennings, who tore his Achilles tendon in January, cast a shadow. Jennings had reportedly been expecting as of two months ago that he’d be ready for training camp, but uncertainty still abounds. Spencer Dinwiddie called it “the biggest elephant in the room” and said that no one knows whether Jennings can start the season on time, as Keith Langlois of Pistons.com recently relayed.

The fate of Dinwiddie, one of four point guards among those 17 with fully guaranteed deals, seems largely tied to Jennings. Dinwiddie’s contract runs through 2016/17, but this is the final guaranteed season, and his salary is only slightly more than $845K this year, the one-year veteran’s minimum. Small forward Darrun Hilliard is making less, an even $600K, but the Pistons just drafted him 38th overall this summer. Of course, Detroit used last year’s No. 38 overall pick on Dinwiddie, so giving up either of them would cost the Pistons an investment of a high second-rounder.

Cartier Martin possesses the next lowest guaranteed salary on the team, at about $1.271MM. He averaged just 8.6 minutes per game in 23 appearances this past season, a level of playing time that he apparently wasn’t pleased with, but his teammates encouraged him to opt in for this season nonetheless. The Pistons and Martin agreed to the deal on the first day of free agency in 2014, which made it all the more surprising when Stan Van Gundy, who doubles as coach and president of basketball operations, didn’t use him much in 2014/15. Thus, it’s hard to predict what sort of value the Pistons place on having Martin on the roster, though he’d seem at risk of getting cut.

The same is probably true of Danny Granger, though he’s set to make nearly $2.171MM. Granger hasn’t made more than 41 appearances since the 2011/12 season, the last in a string of five straight years in which he led the Pacers in scoring and the last before injuries robbed him of his effectiveness. As with Jennings, Granger’s health is uncertain, and a better understanding of it will help the Pistons figure out how to maneuver.

The Pistons benefit from a large number of medium-level salaries to help facilitate trades. Reggie Jackson has the team’s only eight-figure salary, and he’s ineligible to be traded until January 15th anyway. The Pistons can’t trade Aron Baynes or Joel Anthony until after the season starts, either, since they both signed new deals this summer, and certainly the team isn’t about to give up Andre Drummond, but that still leaves several candidates. Jennings would seem like one of them, though he’d no doubt be more difficult to trade before he gets healthy than after.

The stretch provision gives the Pistons another opportunity to excise guaranteed salaries, or at least a portion of them as far as this season is concerned. Monday is the last day for teams to use the stretch provision to spread salaries for this coming season. The Pistons used the stretch most notoriously on Josh Smith last year, but they also used it on Aaron Gray before the start of this past season.

How do you see the Pistons sorting out their guaranteed salary dilemma? Leave a comment to share your thoughts.

Poll: 2003 NBA Draft Take Two (Pick No. 3)

August 25th, 2015 at 7:40pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Drafting players is far from an exact science, and many a GM has been second-guessed for his draft night decisions. I’m willing to bet that every team executive has at least one pick that he would like a mulligan for. While life, and the NBA, doesn’t allow for such opportunities, we at Hoops Rumors decided it would be fun to give our readers a second take at picking players, complete with the benefit of hindsight.

We are in the process of taking you on a journey back to June of 2003, and revisiting a draft that saw the likes of LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh available to potentially change the fortunes of a few struggling franchises. Wade was the first of that group to win an NBA championship, though James and Bosh would later join him in Miami and go on to win multiple titles together years later, while Melo is still seeking his first trip to the NBA Finals. Detroit, which owned the No. 2 overall pick that season, chose to go with Darko Milicic, who didn’t work out so well for the Pistons. Not all picks pan out, but that one is especially painful given the talent that the Pistons passed over to select the big man, who owns career averages of 6.0 points and 4.2 rebounds, and has been out of the NBA since making a single appearance for the Celtics back in 2012/13.

We continue our revisionist history with the Nuggets, who used the No. 3 overall pick to select Anthony, who still happens to be on the board in our draft. Readers, you are now on the clock! Cast your vote for Denver’s pick and check back Wednesday night for the results, as well as to cast your vote for who the Raptors will select with the No. 4 overall pick. But don’t limit yourself to a simple button click. Take to the comments section below and share your thoughts on the No. 3 overall pick and why you voted the way that you did.

Previous Picks

Cavaliers: LeBron James
Pistons: Dwyane Wade

With the No. 3 Overall Pick the Nuggets Select...

Carmelo Anthony 74.29% (1,020 votes)

Chris Bosh 20.25% (278 votes)

Darko Milicic 2.48% (34 votes)

Kyle Korver 1.38% (19 votes)

David West 0.44% (6 votes)

Jose Calderon 0.29% (4 votes)

Zaza Pachulia 0.29% (4 votes)

Chris Kaman 0.22% (3 votes)

Kirk Hinrich 0.15% (2 votes)

Josh Howard 0.15% (2 votes)

Mo Williams 0.07% (1 votes)

Total Votes: 1,373

If you’re a Trade Rumors app user, click here.

2016 Free Agent Power Rankings

August 25th, 2015 at 3:13pm CST by Chuck Myron

When most NBA observers think of the 2016 free agent class, Kevin Durant is the first name that comes to mind. However, he’s not on top of our inaugural 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings. That title is reserved for the player who’s been on top of these rankings since the beginning: LeBron James. Durant’s struggle with a broken foot this past season injects enough doubt into his future that, if 2016 free agency began today, James would seem like a safer bet.

LeBron’s strategy of signing two-year deals with player options lets him capitalize on a rising salary cap as he navigates the prime of his career, and perhaps most importantly, gives him leverage every July. He seems overwhelmingly likely to stay in Cleveland for the foreseeable future, but he, like Durant, isn’t giving too many hints about just what he’ll do.

Of course, the ranking is subject to change, and we’ll no doubt see plenty of movement in this top 10 as we check back on a regular basis between now and next June. Still, even as a few notable names remain in this year’s free agent class, here’s our first look at how they stack up for 2016:

LeBron James (player option) — Yes, he’s almost four years older than Durant. But LeBron just dragged a banged-up Cavs team to the Eastern Conference title and drew Finals MVP consideration even though he was on the losing team. Durant sat out all but 27 games this past season. Once Durant proves healthy, he probably eclipses LeBron. But for now, King James remains in his throne atop these rankings.
Kevin Durant — That broken foot keeps him from the top spot, but he needn’t bounce back to his MVP form of 2013/14 to vault to No. 1. He could merely do what he’s done four out of the last six years and win the scoring title. That would give him five scoring titles before his 28th birthday.
Mike Conley — This ranking might seem high for Conley, who took fewer shot attempts per game than Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph did last season, but in what’s increasingly becoming a point guard’s game, Conley, who turns 28 in October, is among the elite. Multiple reports seem to indicate that he’ll follow in Gasol’s footsteps and make the Grizzlies the clear front-runners to re-sign him.
Dwight Howard (player option) — Howard, like Durant, can climb this list if he proves his health this year. He played in only 41 games and put up some of his lowest numbers in 10 years this past season. Still, he led the playoffs in rebounds per game and helped the Rockets to the Western Conference Finals.
Andre Drummond (restricted) — Drummond, in many ways, is like a younger version of Howard. They’ve both played for Stan Van Gundy, they’re both top-flight rebounders, and neither can shoot free throws. It remains to be seen if Drummond can become the sort of devastating force that Howard has been, however. It seems more likely that the Pistons will tie up Drummond with an extension than let him hit free agency.
Al Horford — The Hawks won 38 games in 2013/14, when Horford missed the majority of the season with injury. Atlanta won 60 games when the big man returned healthy last season. That’s no coincidence. He doesn’t put up gaudy numbers, but his game doesn’t have many holes, and he’s even showing signs of developing a three-point shot.
Bradley Beal (restricted) — The Wizards reportedly want some non-guaranteed money in the deal if they’re to sign Beal to a max extension this summer, with health a concern, so an extension that seemed on its way last year might not happen. If that’s the case, Beal would hit restricted free agency just three days after his 23rd birthday, and if he merely keeps up his current career numbers, he can boast 40% three-point accuracy and a scoring average of 15.6 points per game.
Joakim Noah — Horford’s former Florida teammate is yet another top 2016 free agent whose health is in question. He only missed 15 regular season games this past year, but he clearly wasn’t right, and he was well off the pace of his career year in 2013/14. Part of that had to do with the adjustments he made to play with 2014 free agent signee Pau Gasol. Noah has been the anchor of one of the league’s stoutest defenses for too long to ignore, however.
DeMar DeRozan (player option) — The shooting guard has posted back-to-back 20-plus PPG seasons while nailing slightly fewer than 30% of his three-pointers the last two years combined, a testament to his ability to get to the basket. The early indications are he’ll opt out, and he has plenty of reason to do so, since the option would pay him only $10.05MM.
Dwyane Wade — The Heat and Wade settled their differences this summer with a one-year, $20MM deal, and if all players only went year to year on their contracts, Wade might be higher on this list, having just averaged 21.5 PPG this past season. But when he enters the market as a 34-year-old with knee trouble next July, he simply won’t be able to command the sort of long-term money that others will.

These free agents make up the next 10:

Harrison Barnes (restricted)
Pau Gasol (player option)
Al Jefferson
Timofey Mozgov
Chandler Parsons (player option)
Roy Hibbert
Joe Johnson
Hassan Whiteside
David Lee
Luol Deng

The following three players can also hit free agency in 2016, but they’re far more likely to retire than leave their respective teams. So, we’re listing them here, in a special section of sorts, and in alphabetical order.

Kobe Bryant
Tim Duncan (player option)
Dirk Nowitzki (player option)

Who are your top 10 2016 free agents? Leave a comment to give us your list.

Extension Candidate Series

August 25th, 2015 at 10:59am CST by Chuck Myron

Rookie scale extension season seems to have begun early this year, with Jonas Valanciunas and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist having come to terms in back-to-back weeks. Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard signed their max extensions in July. Still, plenty more names remain on the list of players eligible for rookie scale extensions, and while veteran extensions are much more rare, a reasonable case can be made for some of those on that list, too.

As we did last year and in years before, we’ll be profiling several extension candidates with in-depth analysis. The pieces will discuss the merits of an extension for player and team, dissect the market forces at play, and project the outcome of negotiations.

Below are links to the posts we’ve done so far. We’ll add links to this page as we continue the project in the months ahead. You can access this list anytime from the right sidebar under the Hoops Rumors Features menu.

Harrison Barnes
Bradley Beal
Andre Drummond
Festus Ezeli
Evan Fournier
John Henson
Terrence Jones
Donatas Motiejunas
Jared Sullinger
Jonas Valanciunas — already signed a four-year, $64MM extension.
Dion Waiters
Tyler Zeller

Column: How Far Will Blazers Fall — If At All?

August 25th, 2015 at 8:58am CST by Hoops Rumors

Sam Amico, the founder and editor of AmicoHoops.net and a broadcast journalist for Fox Sports Ohio, will write a weekly feature for Hoops Rumors with news, rumors and insight from around the NBA. If you missed last week’s edition, click here.

A lot of people think the Trail Blazers are headed straight down the Western Conference tubes.

That kind of makes sense. After all, star forward LaMarcus Aldridge split for San Antonio and the Blazers received nothing in return.

On top of that, Nicolas Batum was traded to Charlotte, Wesley Matthews signed with Dallas and Robin Lopez bolted for New York.

So scratch four starters off last season’s 51-31 team. That record was good enough for the West’s No. 4 playoff spot — and many considered the Blazers to be a younger, up-and-coming bunch that only needed a few more years to do something special.

Now, only Damian Lillard remains as a real hope.

Of course, Lillard is a pretty good place to start. The 6’3″ point guard is still only 25 years old, and coming off a season in which he averaged 21.0 points and 6.2 assists. He is a brilliant point guard, a winner, a guy who knows how to take over a game and keep his teammates happy.

This year, Lillard may get an idea of what Kyrie Irving must have felt like in Cleveland prior to LeBron James‘ return.

Lillard will have to direct an entirely new unit — a unit that looks significantly less talented than the one that gave the Blazers so many reasons to believe.

Free agent signees Ed Davis and Al-Farouq Aminu, and offseason trade acquisition Mason Plumlee, will likely form the starting frontcourt. Gerald Henderson, obtained in the Batum deal, is likely Lillard’s running mate in the backcourt.

Meanwhile, the bench is a mish-mash of youth, new faces and untapped potential – with the likes of everyone from big men Meyers Leonard and Noah Vonleh, to swingmen Allen Crabbe and Maurice Harkless, to guards C.J. McCollum and Phil Pressey, playing fairly large roles.

None are bad players. None are Aldridge or Batum or even Matthews or Lopez. At least not yet.

On the bright side, Terry Stotts is entering his fourth full season as Blazers coach, and he has proven he knows how to get the players’ attention. That can count for a lot when you’re looked at as fairly undermanned.

Also, Lillard hasn’t hung his head publicly over all the departures. Far from it.

“I’m looking forward to having a bigger role, to being the leader of the team, and I think it’s going to be fun,” he said in a press conference after signing a contract extension in July, as Joe Freeman of The Oregonian relayed. “I’m going to continue to be the same person. I’m going to continue to attack things with confidence like I always have. And, hopefully, it’ll all work out like I plan for it to work out.”

Of course, this is the West we’re talking about — a loaded conference with the Spurs, Rockets, Clippers and NBA champion Warriors all expected to finish near the top.

Memphis is another rugged playoff returnee, as is New Orleans. And Oklahoma City is expected back with the return of a healthy Kevin Durant.

So even with the old group, the Blazers would have had to really fight to hold their ground. Now? It may take a basketball miracle.

Then again, sometimes being counted out can really motivate a team. It happened in Denver not long after they traded Carmelo Anthony to New York in 2011 — when the Nuggets banded together without a true star and surprised their way to the postseason.

These Blazers will have to try to do something similar, and if they have anything going for them, it’s the fact no one expects them to do much. Most expect them to be forgotten.

That could indeed be the case. But at least the team’s clear-cut leader is promising to try to do his part.

“We’re a young team,” Lillard told Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports last month. “There are going to be ups and downs. But I’m not giving up on anything. I don’t doubt that we can still compete. We got a lot of young athletes. I don’t feel like it’s going to be [solely] me up there. I feel like we got guys capable of stepping up and doing more than they’ve done in the past.”

If he’s right, maybe the Blazers can pull together. Maybe they can find some resolve, maybe they can overachieve. And maybe, their travel down the chutes won’t be as dramatic as some are predicting.

Extension Candidate: Andre Drummond

August 24th, 2015 at 10:12pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Pistons owner Tom Gores made it clear before the end of last season that there would be no haggling over money in negotiations with Andre Drummond. Gores declared publicly in April that Drummond is a “max player” and it seems as though every move the franchise has made recently is designed to build around the 22-year-old center. The only mystery regarding Drummond is whether he’ll receive an extension before the end of training camp or if he’ll come to terms on a new contract next summer.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

A maximum contract for the Jeff Schwartz client would be a projected $20.4MM starting salary with maximum raises of 7.5%. A four-year deal would put $90.78MM in Drummond’s bank account. He could also receive a fifth year if the Pistons make him their Designated Player, giving him a projected $117.3MM over the life of the contract.
In the highly unlikely scenario that Drummond wins the MVP award this season, he would qualify for an even greater max deal triggered by the Derrick Rose rule with a projected starting salary of $24.9MM.

It was already apparent from Drummond’s rookie season that the Pistons had been gifted a franchise player when he slid to the No. 9 selection in the 2012 draft. Only two All-Star talents — Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard — were selected ahead of Drummond, who played one inconsistent season with the University of Connecticut before turning pro. He quickly established himself as a ferocious rebounder in his rookie season, grabbing double-digit boards in 16 games before the All-Star break despite limited playing time. A back injury sidelined him most of the second half but a 29-point, 11-rebound performance against the Cavs in April of that season showed what he could do when healthy.

He’s turned into a double-double machine over the past two seasons, averaging 13.5 points, 13.2 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in his second year, followed by a 13.8/13.5/1.9 slash line last season. His 21.5 Hollinger player efficiency rating and 21.4 Basketball Reference PER placed him among the Top 25 players in the league last season.

Drummond, who will make $3,272,091 this season, is still just scratching the surface of his potential. His low-post game is still in the development stages — he’s a 35% shooter from 3-10 feet in his young career — and he’s a woeful 39.7% free throw shooter. That makes him a target for getting intentionally fouled when opponents are playing catchup or trying to slow the Pistons’ momentum.

Those weaknesses won’t affect Drummond’s contract situation. The main reason why an extension may not get done this year is to provide flexibility for the front office next summer. If Drummond holds off on the extension, the Pistons will have more cash to spend to make whatever improvements are necessary. The Pistons are projected to have anywhere from $5.7MM-$38.0MM in cap space next summer, depending on how coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy manages his roster decisions.

There is inherent risk involved for both sides to delay the process. Drummond’s incentive to sign by November 2nd (the usual October 31st deadline is pushed back a couple of days because it falls on a weekend) is to get the guaranteed money before a potential significant injury could affect his long-term value. The Pistons’ incentive to get the deal done is to keep their franchise player as happy as possible and that’s the approach they’re taking, as Van Gundy confirmed in July that extension talks would begin this summer.

Leading up to those negotiations, Van Gundy continued to construct his team around Drummond’s talents, much like Orlando’s roster was built around Dwight Howard when Van Gundy coached the Magic to an NBA Finals appearance in 2009. He re-signed point guard Reggie Jackson to a whopping five-year, $80MM deal to be Drummond’s pick-and-roll partner for years to come. He traded for a stretch four, Ersan Ilyasova, to pair up with Drummond in the frontcourt after concluding that the duo of Drummond and Greg Monroe, a low-post power forward, clogged up the middle. Monroe wound up signing with the division rival Bucks as an unrestricted free agent. Van Gundy also upgraded at small forward by acquiring Marcus Morris and drafting Stanley Johnson.

So while the Pistons could put themselves in a better position to make trades and sign free agents by waiting to lock up Drummond next summer, the more likely scenario is for Drummond to sign on the dotted line and get the most important order of business for both parties out of the way before the season starts.

Longest-Tenured Players For Each NBA Team

August 24th, 2015 at 1:49pm CST by Chuck Myron

Injuries and age may have knocked Kobe Bryant down a few pegs among the league’s best players, but no one can touch him atop the list of the longest tenured players in the NBA. He’s been a member of the Lakers for more than 19 years, and while it seems like he’ll fall just shy of making it into a third decade with the team, with his contract set to expire June 30th and the expectation that he’ll retire at that point, that’s not a certainty just yet, as we discussed Sunday.

Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki are the only other players to have been with their respective teams since the 1990s, with a wide gap between them and fellow 2003 draftees Dwyane Wade and Nick Collison. This list doesn’t include players who had non-consecutive terms with teams. If it did, Kevin Garnett would be No. 1, having originally joined the Timberwolves in the 1995 draft, nearly 20 years before he rejoined the team at the trade deadline in February.

The past year has seen little turnover atop the list, as the six players who’ve been with their teams the longest are the same from this past October, when we last compiled the ranking. It seemed at that point that LaMarcus Aldridge, No. 7 on last year’s list, would continue to stick around the Trail Blazers, but he changed his mind about recommitting to Portland and signed with the Spurs instead. He’s one of 10 among the 30 players on last year’s list to have changed teams. Thus, the players listed for the Blazers, Celtics, Kings, Pacers, Hornets, Nuggets, Pistons, Bucks, Knicks and Sixers are all different, though Philadelphia remains the team with the longest tenured player who’s been there the shortest time. That distinction belongs to Nerlens Noel, who finished third in Rookie of the Year voting just this past season after sitting out his first year with the team.

Markieff Morris is the Suns’ entry on this list, but he’d like that to change, having demanded a trade. He could eventually wind up back on this list for his next team, the way Carmelo Anthony has done for the Knicks more than four years since he pushed his way off the Nuggets. The ‘Melo trade gave Denver two players who now share the title of longest tenured Nugget. Both Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari, fresh off renegotiations and extensions, don’t appear to be heading elsewhere anytime soon.

See the full list here:

Los Angeles Lakers: Kobe Bryant. Acquired via trade on July 11th, 1996.
San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan. Drafted on June 25th, 1997.
Dallas Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki. Acquired via trade on June 24th, 1998.
Miami Heat: Dwyane Wade. Drafted on June 26th, 2003.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Nick Collison. Drafted on June 26th, 2003.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Anderson Varejao. Acquired via trade on July 23rd, 2004.
Atlanta Hawks: Al Horford. Drafted on June 28th, 2007.
Memphis Grizzlies: Mike Conley. Drafted on June 28th, 2007.
Chicago Bulls: Joakim Noah. Drafted on June 28th, 2007.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Nikola Pekovic. Drafted on June 26th, 2008.
Brooklyn Nets: Brook Lopez. Drafted on June 26th, 2008.
Los Angeles Clippers: DeAndre Jordan. Drafted on June 26th, 2008.
Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry. Drafted on June 25th, 2009.
Toronto Raptors: DeMar DeRozan. Drafted on June 25th, 2009.
Sacramento Kings: DeMarcus Cousins. Drafted on June 24th, 2010.
Indiana Pacers: Paul George. Drafted on June 24th, 2010.
Boston Celtics: Avery Bradley. Drafted on June 24th, 2010.
Washington Wizards: John Wall. Drafted on June 24th, 2010.
Utah Jazz: Gordon Hayward. Drafted on June 24th, 2010.
Denver Nuggets: Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari. Acquired via trade on February 22nd, 2011.
New York Knicks: Carmelo Anthony. Acquired via trade on February 22nd, 2011.
Charlotte Hornets: Kemba Walker. Drafted on June 23rd, 2011.
Phoenix Suns: Markieff Morris. Drafted on June 23rd, 2011.
Houston Rockets: Donatas Motiejunas. Acquired via trade on June 24th, 2011.
New Orleans Pelicans: Eric Gordon. Acquired via trade on December 14th, 2011.
Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard. Drafted on June 28th, 2012.*
Detroit Pistons: Andre Drummond. Drafted on June 28th, 2012.
Milwaukee Bucks: John Henson. Drafted on June 28th, 2012.
Orlando Magic: Andrew Nicholson. Drafted on June 28th, 2012.
Philadelphia 76ers: Nerlens Noel. Acquired via trade on July 10th, 2013.

Note: We went by the date a player was drafted, rather than the date that he signed his first contract. If multiple teams selected their longest-tenured players in the same draft, the team that made its pick first is the first team listed.

* — The Trail Blazers selected Meyers Leonard, who’s also still with the team, later in the same draft.

Aside from Markieff Morris, which of the players on the list do you think will be the next to change teams? Leave a comment to tell us.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Extension Candidate: Donatas Motiejunas

August 24th, 2015 at 10:29am CST by Chuck Myron

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The Rockets made a somewhat unexpected postseason run to the Western Conference Finals without Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas, both of whom sat out the postseason with injury. Houston nonetheless re-signed Beverley, though he came back at a relative bargain of a deal worth four years and $23MM, and the Rockets brought in Ty Lawson, who’ll challenge him for the starting point guard position. Motiejunas already has plenty of competition at power forward in Houston, but it remains to be seen whether he, like Beverley, is prepared to do a post-injury deal with the Rockets and risk signing at an ebb tide in his leverage.

The Wasserman Media Group client has the luxury of waiting until next summer, unlike Beverley, whose contract expired at season’s end. Yet a deal during this offseason would give Motiejunas greater stability, since the Poison Pill Provision makes it difficult for teams to trade players between the time they sign rookie scale extensions and the time those extensions kick in the following July. It would also allow him to capitalize on a 2014/15 regular season in which he made 62 starts, nearly four times as many as the total number of starts he made in his first two years in the league. He played a critical role for a Rockets team that managed to overcome injuries to Dwight Howard and others and finish with the second-best record in the West before the 24-year-old Lithuanian suffered his own injury, a back ailment that required surgery.

Motiejunas averaged 12.0 points in 28.7 minutes per game this past season, with that offense coming in the quintessential Rockets way. He took less than 10% of his shots from distances that were more than 10 feet away from the basket but within the three-point line, as Basketball-Reference shows. Most of his looks were within 10 feet, as he gave Houston an interior presence, but when he ventured outside to shoot his three-pointers, he made 36.8% of them, a significant improvement on a career three-point percentage that had been 26.9% going into last season. The question of whether his strong shooting season is an outlier or a true indication of his improvement will no doubt hang over negotiations.

The 7-footer’s rebounding numbers are discouraging, as he collected only 5.9 boards per game. Some of that probably has to do with the presence of Howard, but D12 only played in 41 games and posted his lowest RPG since his rookie season. Motiejunas meanwhile rebounded less frequently per 36 minutes this past season than he did in 2013/14.

Defensively, his numbers are mixed. He was a plus on that side of the court, according to Basketball-Reference’s Defensive Box Plus Minus, and the same is true in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus Minus, though he ranked as just the 29th-best power forward in that category this past season. The Rockets gave up 1.1 more points per 100 possessions when Motiejunas was on the floor compared to when he wasn’t, according to NBA.com, though that’s a stat that doesn’t separate him from what the other four players on the floor were doing. Still, it’s not encouraging for his case that the Rockets were a net 2.3 points per 100 possessions better overall with Motiejunas sitting.

Motiejunas was more efficient last year than he’d been in the past, as his career-best 14.4 PER indicates, but that’s still below 15.0, the mark of an average player in that category. That pales in comparison to the 18.3 PER of Terrence Jones, the other Rockets power forward up for a rookie scale extension. The relative value of Jones versus Motiejunas will color the negotiations for both. Jones missed significant time with an injury last season, too, and their numbers weren’t all that dissimilar. Still, areas of separation, such as the PER number, will loom large.

The Rockets will have about $44.5MM committed for 2016/17, assuming they pick up Clint Capela‘s rookie scale team option. That doesn’t include any money for Howard, who has a player option worth nearly $23.3MM, or Lawson, whose more than $13.2MM salary is non-guaranteed. Bring them both back, and Houston would have at least $81MM against a projected $89MM cap, and perhaps more if Howard opts out and re-signs at a higher number. An extension for either Motiejunas or Jones would make it more difficult for Houston to replace Howard if he bolts and perhaps even put the team in danger of crossing the projected $108MM tax line if Howard and Lawson remain.

Motiejunas is more power forward than center, but the $64MM over four years that Jonas Valanciunas is receiving in his extension from the Raptors is a factor. The rises in the salary cap that will come in the next few years are already having a profound effect on the economics of player salaries, and even if Motiejunas can’t quite command what his fellow Lithuanian got, it’s fair to suggest an extension would entail salaries of around $12-14MM a year.

It’s difficult to envision Rockets GM Daryl Morey, who values flexibility, committing to a number like that. Houston will have a tough time clearing cap space next summer anyway, but Morey has proven adept at that. The extension would also compromise Morey’s flexibility for trades this season, given the Poison Pill Provision. Morey and company will probably have discussions with the Motiejunas camp and make at least a token offer, but I doubt that reaching a deal will be a priority. Motiejunas has incentive to make the Rockets think twice about such a stance, given his strong season, but he’d probably have to take less than he could command on the open market to get Morey to budge, and little reason exists for him to take a discount if he’s looking to capitalize on his performance.

Should the Rockets sign Motiejunas to an extension? Leave a comment to give us your thoughts.

Previous Negotiations For Rich Paul Clients

August 24th, 2015 at 8:59am CST by Chuck Myron

The Cavaliers and Leon Rose client J.R. Smith reached a deal last week, leaving perhaps the most intriguing free agent negotiations to clients of Rich Paul. The agent who counts LeBron James as his most famous client is also the representative for Tristan Thompson and Norris Cole, who’ve remained in restricted free agency for almost two months. Paul is also the agent for Montrezl Harrell, this year’s No. 32 overall pick, and the Rockets are facing a tricky contract situation with him, as I examined.

Paul is gaining a reputation for dragging out negotiations, and while Thompson, Cole and Harrell aren’t his first clients to stay on the market for months at a time, that hasn’t been the case with everyone he represents. Here’s a look at how free agency has gone in the past for his seven clients currently under contract:

Eric Bledsoe — No high-profile free agent, outside of Ray Allen, stayed on the market longer last summer than Bledsoe did. He and the Suns didn’t agree to sign his five-year, $70MM contract until September 24th, just days before the start of training camp, and public contentiousness marked the negotiations. The Timberwolves reportedly offered a four-year max deal less than a week before he re-signed with Phoenix.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope — The eighth overall pick from 2013 was with Thad Foucher of the Wasserman Media Group when he signed his rookie scale contract with the Pistons. He’ll become eligible for a rookie scale extension next summer, giving Paul his first crack at negotiating with an NBA team on behalf of the shooting guard.
LeBron James — James kept the NBA world waiting last summer as he made up his mind about returning to Cleveland, turning the usual flood of early-July transactions into a trickle. Still, he didn’t linger in free agency an inordinately long time, announcing his choice on July 11th, 2014, the same day he put pen to paper. This year, James was reportedly going to put off negotiations until Thompson’s situation was resolved, but that didn’t end up happening, and he re-committed to the Cavs on July 9th before making it official on July 10th.
Cory Joseph — There was little delay with Joseph, who committed to the Raptors on July 5th and signed on July 9th, the first day after the July Moratorium. The Spurs withdrew their qualifying offer to Joseph shortly before the report that he’d agreed to terms with Toronto, though the timing suggests that Joseph, Paul or someone else from the point guard’s camp told San Antonio about the Raptors deal before it became public knowledge.
Trey Lyles — Negotiations on rookie scale contracts are almost always straightforward and without fanfare, but that wasn’t the case with Lyles, this year’s No. 12 overall pick. Reports indicated that some complications emerged, and Jody Genessy of The Deseret News explained to Hoops Rumors that they had to do with incentives the Jazz wanted in the contract that Lyles and Paul didn’t. Ultimately, Jazz GM Dennis Lindsey admitted blame for the holdup that caused the forward to miss the first two games of the revived Salt Lake City summer league, an absence that rankled Utah fans.
Ben McLemore — As with Caldwell-Pope, McLemore wasn’t a client of Paul’s yet when he signed his rookie scale contract with the Kings in 2013. McLemore, whom Sacramento took with the selection before the Pistons drafted Caldwell-Pope, can have Paul negotiate toward a rookie scale extension when he becomes eligible for one next summer.
Kevin Seraphin — Seraphin and the Wizards didn’t do a rookie scale extension when he was eligible in 2013, setting him up for restricted free agency last year. Paul helped him take a somewhat unconventional route, as he signed his qualifying offer on July 17th, 2014 (though news of the signing didn’t come out until July 18th). Seraphin and Paul had motivation not to drag out talks too long, since the Wizards had the power to unilaterally withdraw the offer, worth a fully guaranteed one-year salary of nearly $3.9MM, anytime through July 23rd. Taking the qualifying offer triggered unrestricted free agency for him this year, and this time he lingered in free agency a bit longer, committing to the Knicks on August 4th before making it official on August 6th.

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