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Offseason Outlook: Houston Rockets

June 1st, 2015 at 3:30pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (18th overall)
  • 2nd Round (32nd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $54,629,767
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,294,572
  • Options: $4,797,664
  • Cap Holds: $22,523,182
  • Total: $83,245,185

Maybe the Rockets would be best served to have an offseason of disappointment. That’s what happened last summer, and this spring they made their first conference finals appearance since the Hakeem Olajuwon era. Of course, the Rockets probably would have been in a better position if they had signed Chris Bosh, as they thought they were about to do, or another one of the other stars they targeted. Still, it’s undeniable that Trevor Ariza, Houston’s primary acquisition from the offseason of 2014, fit in well as a replacement for Chandler Parsons, giving James Harden a stronger defensive complement on the wing. Harden took another leap on both sides of the ball, responding to widespread criticism of his defense with a career best number in Basketball Reference’s Defensive Box/Plus Minus metric and a marked gain in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus figures. Midseason pickups Josh Smith, Corey Brewer and Pablo Prigioni became key contributors, as did Jason Terry, whose outsized salary the Rockets accommodated via trade in exchange for a pair of sizable non-guaranteed deals that came via the Omer Asik deal.

Apr 26, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Houston Rockets forward Josh Smith (5) waits for play to resume against the Dallas Mavericks in game four of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Center. The Mavericks defeated the Rockets 121-109. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Terry’s contributions underscore how the Rockets really didn’t miss Asik or Jeremy Lin, both of whom Houston traded last summer to clear cap space for their failed run at a star. Coach Kevin McHale, who validated the team’s decision to extend his contract, and GM Daryl Morey spent the year making the best of an offseason that didn’t go to plan and a host of injuries that cost Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverley, Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas significant time. The concern going forward is whether this season’s accomplishments are sustainable. The Rockets won 56 games when they should have won only 50, according to Basketball-Reference‘s expected win-loss stat, which is based on point differential. The Clippers could have denied them that Western Conference Finals bid if they had held on to a 19-point lead in Game 6 of their series.

Regardless, Houston seems to have faith in its supporting cast. The Rockets are “determined” to re-sign Beverley, and they’d like a new deal with Smith, too, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports reported. Morey told Calvin Watkins of ESPN.com that the team has interest in re-signing its other free agents, too. Certainly, the Rockets would still like a third star to go with Harden and Howard, but such a pursuit may well have to wait until 2016. The Rockets can take their cap figure down to $57,577,046 barring any sort of trade, only about $10MM shy of the projected $67.1MM cap. They’d have to create roughly another $6MM or so of cap flexibility to sign Greg Monroe, the cheapest of the star-level unrestricted free agents, and somewhere around $9MM for most of the rest of the marquee free agents. Morey has made a habit of clearing salary this time of year, and surely there would be takers for Ariza and Houston’s first-round pick if he wants to renew that tradition. Cap holds for Beverley and Smith would further eat into Houston’s flexibility, but Morey could offset those with salary-clearing trades of Jones and Motiejunas.

Indeed, there is a route by which the Rockets could sign a max free agent, give Beverley whatever’s necessary to retain him and have the flexibility to at least get in the ballpark to re-sign Smith. That said, pulling off a trifecta of deals that would send away Ariza, Jones and Motiejunas for no salary in return wouldn’t be a snap, and it would come with consequences, particularly if the Rockets come up short again in free agency. Still, Morey is canny enough that NBA observers shouldn’t rule out the possibility.

That said, it seems more likely that Morey and his staff set to work on determining the right price for Beverley and Smith, whose respective market values are among the most difficult to peg in this year’s free agent class. Beverley has a reputation as a defensive bulldog, though he’s a negative in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus and not far into positive territory in Basketball-Reference’s Defensive Box Plus/Minus. The Rockets were 3.2 points per 100 possessions worse on defense with Beverley on the floor this season, according to NBA.com, though that number is heavily influenced by who was on the floor with him. Beverley has barely averaged 10 points per game the past two seasons and his paltry 3.4 assists per game this season were a career best. He’s a strong rebounder for his 6’1″ size, but the none of Beverley’s numbers suggest that the Rockets should pay him much more than the equivalent of the $5.464MM mid-level exception.

Still, the Rockets seem want him back, so perhaps Morey’s proprietary advanced metrics show value that other stats don’t. It’s possible that Houston’s success in the playoffs without him, as he battled in vain to return from season-ending left wrist surgery, will take him down a notch in the team’s eyes, just as postseason results may well have sweetened the team’s pot for Smith. McHale’s insertion of the oft-maligned forward into the starting lineup coincided with Houston’s comeback from a 3-1 series deficit against the Clippers, and for the playoffs as a whole, Smith had a 16.4 PER, better efficiency than he’s put up in either of his two seasons since leaving the Hawks. Some of that had to do with his 38.0% postseason three-point accuracy, an unsustainable rate based on his track record, but Smith proved nonetheless effective in his role as a supporting player instead of as a miscast star.

The Rockets don’t have the flexibility with Smith, with whom they have only Non-Bird rights, that they do with Beverley, a full Bird player. Houston can’t top $2,492,400 in a starting salary for Smith without using another exception or cap space. That’s probably less than he’s worth, though Smith is due $5.4MM from the Pistons next season, and each year through 2019/20, thanks to the stretch provision Detroit used to waive its fat contract with him in December. The next contract that the Brian Dyke and Wallace Prather client signs will defray a fraction of the Pistons’ obligation via set off, but there’s still incentive for Smith to sign for as much as he can, even if he knows he has at least $5.4MM coming. That very figure, almost equivalent to the non-taxpayer’s mid-level, seems like a fair price for Smith’s next deal, a cost that would be quite difficult, if not impossible, for the Rockets to pay if they dip beneath the salary cap to make a marquee signing. If Houston operates above the cap and re-signs Beverley, re-signing Smith at that level would take away the team’s capacity to sign anyone it doesn’t already own the rights to for more than the minimum.

Reports have indicated the Rockets have interest in signing draft-and-stash prospects Sergio Llull, Alessandro Gentile and Marko Todorovic this summer, though none are former first-rounders, and thus the Rockets wouldn’t have a rookie exception to use toward signing them. Gentile doens’t have an out in his overseas contract and Llull doesn’t seem to have much motivation to come stateside. Morey shot down the idea that Houston was planning a three-year mid-level deal for Llull. That leaves Todorovic, a 23-year-old center from Montenegro who’s said the Rockets would like to sign him. He averaged 11.6 points and 7.2 rebounds in 27.2 minutes per game for Bilbao Basket of Spain this past season. Those are decent numbers that suggest a minimum-salary offer wouldn’t cut it.

All of this makes it more likely the Rockets would seek to re-sign Terry and Brewer if they don’t open cap space. They’ll have full Bird rights on both, so they won’t face much restriction on their salaries. There’s a decent chance that Brewer, who turned down a $4.905MM player option for next season to facilitate the midseason trade that sent him to the Rockets, would want a similar amount in a new deal with Houston, but regardless, Morey will surely exercise caution with him and with Terry. The Rockets probably don’t want to court the projected $81.6MM tax line, nor will Morey be anxious to commit too much long-term money that gets in the way of a run at free agents in 2016.

K.J. McDaniels also holds intrigue as a potential restricted free agent based on the strong performance in Philadelphia that validated his decision to sign a one-year, non-guaranteed deal for the minimum salary, though he didn’t play much after the Sixers traded him to Houston. Kostas Papanikolaou hardly justified his nearly $5MM salary this season, but his uniquely designed contract that features both an option and non-guaranteed salary at least gives the team a chance to see how he develops over the summer before decision time arrives.

The Rockets face a stiff challenge to improve on this year’s performance, though they haven’t failed to make progress in any of the past three seasons. Improved health, more so than a star addition, is Houston’s likeliest path to another step toward a title next season, but the Rockets will once more loom as an outside threat to acquire any marquee name that becomes available.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Prigioni’s salary is partially guaranteed for $440,000.
2 — Papanikolaou’s salary would be non-guaranteed if the Rockets pick up his option. It would become fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through October 4th.
3 — The cap hold for Beverley would be $947,276 if the Rockets elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
4 — The cap hold for McDaniels would be $947,276 if the Rockets elect not to tender a qualifying offer.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Hawks

June 1st, 2015 at 9:58am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • Pero Antic ($1,625,000) — $1,562,500 qualifying offer

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (15th overall)
  • 2nd Round (50th overall)
  • 2nd Round (59th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $39,276,545
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $947,276
  • Options: $0
  • Cap Holds: $25,528,417
  • Total: $65,752,238

It’s difficult to know just what to make of the Hawks. They were the league’s second-best team in the regular season, but they looked vulnerable against putatively inferior opposition in the first two rounds of the playoffs and were completely outclassed in the conference finals versus the Cavaliers. Some of that postseason trouble had to do with health, as Atlanta’s top three wing players were all either out or hobbled by the time the Cavs completed their sweep. Still, Thabo Sefolosha, who suffered a broken leg in an incident outside a nightclub in early April, was the only member of the Hawks rotation to miss a significant portion of time prior to the conference finals, aside from Shelvin Mack, who went about a month without playing from mid-January to the All-Star break. The Hawks were second only to the Warriors in net rating prior to All-Star weekend, according to NBA.com, and just ninth afterward, behind the Jazz and Pacers, who didn’t make the playoffs. Sefolosha, because of his broken leg and, before that, a calf strain, only played in seven games in the second half of the season. But surely the swingman the Thunder gave up on a year ago isn’t the difference between a team that won at a 65-game pace in the season’s first half and a 50-game pace for the balance of the regular season.

Mar 25, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) against the Orlando Magic during the second quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

A 50-win team is still pretty strong, but it’s not on the level of a true championship contender, and certainly not close to the kind of excellence the Hawks showed for much of 2014/15. Coach and acting GM Mike Budenholzer has expressed confidence in the team’s star-less approach, but the Hawks have trained their sights on such luminaries as Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony and even LeBron James in the past few years. Atlanta would surely love to have a legitimate No. 1 option just as much as any other team in the league. It just seems as though Budenholzer believes there is a legitimate alternative if, as was the case with Howard, Anthony and James, the Hawks come up short in their star search.

Keeping this year’s team together is a “huge priority,” Budenholzer said last week, and that starts with Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll, Atlanta’s starting forwards and most prominent soon-to-be free agents. The Hawks scored Millsap at a sharp discount two years ago, nabbing him for two years and a total of $19MM. The length of the deal was by the design of Millsap and agent DeAngelo Simmons, as USA Today’s Jeff Zillgitt said recently. Millsap’s camp thought another, more lucrative deal would be easier to come by this summer, when he’ll be 30 years old, than in 2017, after the four-year contract the Hawks proposed would have ended, according to Zillgitt. In any case, Millsap appears to have been planning to seek a major payday this summer, though Millsap and Simmons have both made comments recently that suggest the Hawks will have every opportunity to re-sign him.

It’s unclear exactly what that will take, though it wouldn’t be surprising if Millsap commands the max or a salary close to it. The maximum starting salary for a player with Millsap’s nine years of experience would be an estimated $18.96MM, or about $2.3MM more than the $16.625MM the Hawks are limited to giving him through his Early Bird rights. Re-signing him for more would require the Hawks to use cap space they may well otherwise need to keep Carroll. Estimates of Carroll’s value from executives and other sources have shot skyward in recent weeks. One executive who spoke with Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops for a story that ran last month said he thought Carroll would end up making $8-9MM a year. Executives from whom Howard Beck of Bleacher Report heard peg the three-and-D prototype for anywhere from $9-12MM, as Beck wrote last week. Later, Kevin Arnovitz of ESPN.com wrote that league sources had estimates ranging up to a four-year, $50MM deal, which would be worth $12.5MM annually, and those sources wouldn’t rule out a deal even more lucrative than that.

It’s tough to find an accurate read on the value of a player whose stock seems to rise exponentially. Carroll signed his two-year, $5MM contract with Atlanta two years ago without fanfare, having never averaged more than 6.0 points or played more than 16.8 minutes per game in four NBA seasons. The Hawks made him their opening night starter that fall, and he never looked back, incorporating a three-pointer into his game with sudden effectiveness that saw his accuracy from behind the arc go from 28.6% on 70 attempts in 2012/13 to 36.2% on 278 attempts in 2013/14. This year, he poured in 39.5% on 304 tries and crept to 40.3% on 72 playoff attempts.

The Hawks also have Early Bird rights on Carroll, but because his salary this season is much lower than Millsap’s is, those rights don’t go nearly as far. Teams can sign use Early Bird rights to sign free agents to up to 175% of their previous salaries or the league’s average salary, whichever is greater. The 175% figure would be $4.274MM, so Carroll’s Early Bird number will almost certainly be the average salary, which, based on average salary figures over the past few seasons, should be close to $6MM when the league sets it during the July Moratorium. It won’t be enough to keep Carroll, unless he’s willing to take a sizable discount, so there’s a strong chance the Hawks will have to use cap room to retain both Carroll and Millsap.

Atlanta can strip down to a cap figure of $42,452,024 without making a trade. The cap is projected to come in at $67.1MM, so the Hawks would have roughly $25MM worth of flexibility, not enough for even the most conservative estimate offered for Carroll if Millsap’s deal indeed approaches the max.

Still, Carroll is making the Hawks his priority, and the Hawks like their chances to keep both. Millsap would presumably be the team’s first choice if it had to pick, but if Millsap insists on the max while Carroll is willing to come back at around $9MM a year, the Hawks would have to think seriously about what they could do with the money they’d have left over if they re-signed Carroll at a relatively low price and let Millsap walk. Grantland’s Zach Lowe pointed to Atlanta’s longstanding interest in Greg Monroe, who’s eligible for a lower max estimated at about $16MM. Tyson Chandler, Omer Asik, Robin Lopez and, if he opts out, Roy Hibbert would make for affordable choices if the team goes for a big man, and Khris Middleton, Tobias Harris and Jeff Green would make for intriguing possibilities as combo forwards.

The Hawks would have decidedly less attractive options if Millsap came back at market value and Carroll signed elsewhere. The Hawks will almost certainly operate below the cap, so they’ll have the $2.814MM room exception instead of the $5.464MM full mid-level. A max deal with Millsap would leave cap flexibility roughly equivalent to that $5.464MM amount, though it seems the Hawks would earmark part of that for a new deal with backup big man Pero Antic. Atlanta has Early Bird rights with him, too, but it also has the opportunity to make him a restricted free agent and match all offers. There’s a decent chance the Hawks will pass on making him a qualifying offer and end up renouncing his rights to clear the decks for Millsap and Carroll, though Atlanta could circle back to him with the room exception in that scenario. It’s possible that Antic could be had for the minimum, but anyone who’s 6’11” and can stay on the floor for a 60-win team while connecting on a passable rate of three-pointers usually merits at least the value of Antic’s approximately $1.56MM qualifying offer.

Given that the team’s most prominent free agents are in the frontcourt, expect the Hawks to prioritize small forwards and big men in the draft unless a guard the team really likes slips to them at No. 15. Small forwards Sam Dekker, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Kelly Oubre, power forwards Bobby Portis, Trey Lyles and Kevon Looney, and center Frank Kaminsky are all candidates for that pick. Our Eddie Scarito has the Hawks going with Lyles in the Hoops Rumors Mock Draft.

It’s tough to make a fully confident prediction about anything the Hawks will do given that the team is reportedly on track to formally change hands sometime between now and July, with the Board of Governors seemingly likely to OK the franchise sale to Tony Ressler and his bidding group. The new owners will probably soon thereafter decide the fate of GM Danny Ferry, who’s on a leave of absence that’s already stretched more than eight months, and whether Budenholzer’s leadership of the front office will continue. New owners tend to bring in new personnel, so there’s a decent chance that neither Ferry nor Budenholzer will be in charge of basketball operations before too long, though finding a replacement in time for the July free agency rush would be ambitious, if not impossible.

Perhaps most clear through all of the uncertainty in Atlanta is that the Hawks have found a formula that works, at least to a degree. Augmenting that mix will ultimately be the team’s goal, but simply bringing back a reasonable facsimile of the 2014/15 team would, given the cap constraints this summer, constitute a successful offseason.

Cap Footnotes

1 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why Ayon technically remains on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Indiana Pacers

May 29th, 2015 at 2:08pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (11th overall)
  • 2nd Round (43rd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $36,022,711
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $0
  • Options: $28,114,031
  • Cap Holds: $23,077,435
  • Total: $87,214,177

The Pacers could, with relative ease, bank on the returned health of Paul George to lift them back into contention for the Eastern Conference title in 2016 after a year’s absence. They probably wouldn’t have a hard time convincing the Hornets to return Lance Stephenson to Indiana, either, a move that would allow the Pacers to trot out the same starting five on opening night this fall as they did in the Eastern Conference Finals last year. It nonetheless appears as though the team has decided that the core that led the team to back-to-back conference finals appearances isn’t the group most capable of taking the Pacers where they want to go from here.

NBA: Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

President of basketball operations Larry Bird dropped not-too-subtle hints at season’s end that he’d like Roy Hibbert to opt out, even refusing to rule out the idea of benching the two-time All-Star. Bird made it clear he wants to play at a faster pace and abandon the plodding approach in which the team has featured two traditional big men on the floor most of the time. Hibbert would have to give up more than $15.514MM to acquiesce to Bird’s wishes, and the David Falk client has given no indication that he’s about to do that. Hibbert would ostensibly become a trade candidate as soon as he picked up that option, though finding a taker for that sort of salary would be a challenge. The 28-year-old would have value to teams in need of a rim protector, but whether the value to any of them would be quantified by a monetary sum of greater than $15.514MM remains to be seen.

The Pacers seem somewhat more welcoming toward their other starting big man with an eight-figure player option for next season. The Pacers were open to the idea of trading David West for a first-rounder off and on during the season, as Grantland’s Zach Lowe heard, but the impending return of Paul for the stretch run and the open alley to a playoff berth ultimately led the team to stand pat, Mike Mazzeo of ESPN.com reported. Bird said he has a gut feeling that West will opt in. That would jibe with what sources told Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders at the trade deadline, when they said West was likely to do so. That would open the possibility that the Pacers could again entertain the idea of trading West, perhaps to the Raptors, who reportedly pursued West before the deadline. West averaged just 11.7 points per game this past season, his lowest scoring average in 10 years. The Pacers could try to offset his declining offensive production if they incorporate him as a small ball center in their new up-tempo attack, but if Indiana is anxious to take a different approach, moving on from West, a prototype of the traditional power forward, would make sense.

Luis Scola is a few months older than West, but he’s coming off a bounceback year statistically and the interest that Bird expressed in keeping him is mutual. Scola nonetheless referred to a “huge gap” when he spoke recently to Scott Agness of Vigilant Sports, presumably a reference to the deficit between what the George Bass client thinks he’s worth and what the Pacers are willing to pay. The guaranteed money on the books for the Pacers would come only about $3MM shy of the projected $67.1MM cap if Hibbert and West opt in, which would mean the team would almost certainly operate above the cap in that scenario, barring any trades that clear sizable chunks of salary.  So, Indiana would be free to use Scola’s Bird Rights for a deal that I’d speculate would be for no more than the equivalent of the $5.464MM non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception. If either Hibbert, West or both opt out, it gets trickier, since re-signing Scola almost certainly wouldn’t be Indiana’s first priority for the resulting cap flexibility, and the Pacers might have to renounce Scola’s rights to sign a more attractive free agent. There would be no rule against the Pacers re-signing Scola if they renounce him, but they’d be limited to either their leftover cap space or the $2.814MM room exception.

Chris Copeland, another ostensibly viable option at power forward, is also set for free agency this summer, and the Pacers can reserve the right to match all competing bids for him if they tender a qualifying offer of more than $3.9MM. The 31-year-old combo forward carries intrigue as a stretch four, but his three-point shooting fell off sharply, to 31.1% this season after he had made 42.0% his first two seasons in the league, and his playing time essentially vanished after mid-January. A frightening incident in which he was allegedly stabbed outside a New York City nightclub in April left him with multiple injuries and prematurely ended his season. It seemed unlikely that the Pacers would make the qualifying offer before he was hurt, and now, with questions about his health, it seems out of the question.

The Pacers seem much more enthusiastic about one of the players they signed to replace Stephenson than they do about any of their big men. Coach Frank Vogel said in March that the team’s plan all along was for a long-term partnership with Rodney Stuckey, whom the then-cash-strapped Pacers signed to a one-year deal for the minimum this past summer, and Bird singled out the combo guard for praise a few weeks later. In April, Bird stressed the importance of re-signing him and expressed optimism that it would happen. Stuckey would like to stay, though his Non-Bird rights only allow the Pacers to give him up to 120% of the minimum salary next season without using cap space or another exception. The longtime former Piston would seem a prime candidate for most if not all of the $5.464MM mid-level if Indiana stays over the cap this summer.

Stuckey averaged more points per game as a sixth man than he did as a starter, so if the Pacers want to keep him in the role he played best, they’ll have to settle on a starting shooting guard. Bird seems high on C.J. Miles, who scored a career-high 13.5 points per game this past season and was the 12th-best defender at the position according to ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus metric, though Basketball-Reference’s Box Plus/Minus counts him as a minus defender. It would be difficult for the Pacers to add starting-caliber talent through free agency if Hibbert and West opt in, so Miles is probably the guy unless the Pacers can work a trade. Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders wrote in February that the Raptors had considered dealing away Terrence Ross in the same report in which he identified Toronto as a suitor for West. Ross, as much of a shooting guard as he is a small forward, would fill Indiana’s starting two-guard spot while swinging to the three in small-ball sets, and exchanging a big man for a wing player would jibe with the team’s changing philosophy. Still, the Raptors maintain faith in Ross, their former eighth overall pick, and chances are he sticks in Toronto at least through the summer, as Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun wrote recently.

It would be challenging for the Pacers to come up with a player who could start at the two right away with the 11th pick, though Kentucky sharpshooter Devin Booker could make a strong case for himself. The Pacers would love to move up, according to Chad Ford of ESPN.com, though aside from Mario Hezonja, there aren’t really any shooting guards they could grab toward the top of the draft. It’s no secret that Bird is enamored with center Willie Cauley-Stein, not after the Kentucky center let slip that Bird considers him a “$100MM player,” and with his combination of strong defense and offensive rebounding, perhaps the Pacers view him as a potential replacement for Hibbert.

It was in many ways a lost year for Indiana, as the team had to navigate injuries to George, who missed all but six games, Hill, sidelined for nearly half the season, and others. The Pacers might have stood a chance to remain near the top of the Eastern Conference despite their failure to find common ground on contract proposals with Lance Stephenson last summer if they had been healthy, but once George went down, they had no shot. That they were still alive, and in control of their own destiny, for a playoff spot on the last night of the season was a remarkable accomplishment, but it seems Bird and company are convinced that a simple return to health wouldn’t be enough to lift them into true title contention. It would be fair to argue that the existing Pacers core stands as much chance as any in the East of keeping LeBron James from a sixth straight Finals appearance next season, but wisdom also lies in a bold approach rather than the hope that they catch the four-time MVP on four off nights out of seven.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Hibbert’s cap hold if he opts out would be the lesser of $23,271,047 and the NBA’s maximum salary for a player with seven years of experience. It would most likely be the latter.
2 — West’s cap hold would be $18,900,000 if he opts out.
3 — Whittington’s cap hold would be $845,059 if the Pacers elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
4 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why Bynum technically remains on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Utah Jazz

May 29th, 2015 at 8:59am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • Joe Ingles ($1,045,059) — $1,045,059 qualifying offer2

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (12th overall)
  • 2nd Round (42nd overall)
  • 2nd Round (54th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $47,030,610
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $8,041,525
  • Options: $0
  • Cap Holds: $6,321,814
  • Total: $61,393,949

The Jazz appeared to be taking a step back at the trade deadline in February, when they gave into the trade demand of center Enes Kanter, to whom they committed the No. 3 overall pick in 2011, and dealt him to the Thunder for a protected first-rounder and other uninspiring assets. That Oklahoma City pick is for 2017, the draft that follows the first season after Kevin Durant‘s contract is set to expire, but the lottery protection on it extends through 2020, by which point it would turn into two second-rounders, according to RealGM. The pick will never come close to the value of the one the Jazz used on Kanter. Yet what happened after this year’s trade showed the Jazz need not lament a pick at the back end of the first round.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Rudy Gobert, the 27th overall pick from 2013, took over the starting center job for the departed Kanter and quickly established himself as a game-changing defensive force. He garnered more votes for the NBA’s All-Defensive Teams than anyone who didn’t make the cut, which wasn’t shabby for a player who saw started fewer than half of his team’s games and saw only 21.9 minutes per night before the trade. The Jazz had the NBA’s fourth most porous defense before the All-Star break, when the trade went down, according to NBA.com point per possession data. After the break, they gave up the fewest points per possession by a long shot, as NBA.com also shows. That’s a stunning turnaround.

Utah would go 52-30 next season if it kept up its 19-11 post-trade pace, but the Jazz would be wise not get caught up in a 30-game sample size. The rest of the league will have a full offseason to study what Gobert and his teammates did so effectively down the stretch, and Jazz coach Quin Snyder will have to make counter-adjustments once the season starts. Some regression is to be expected, particularly if the Jazz don’t make a sudden push to engineer win-now moves this summer. That wouldn’t be in keeping with the team’s sharp focus on building from within under Dennis Lindsey, though Lindsey hasn’t encountered a juncture quite like this since the Jazz hired in him as their GM in August 2012. Most executives around the league thought, as Utah put the finishing touches on its second-half resurgence, that the Jazz would survey the trade market for their first-round pick this year, as Grantland’s Zach Lowe reported then.

The team’s ability to find Gobert so late in the first round of Lindsey’s initial draft as GM might dissuade the team from trading this year’s 12th overall pick, though the jury’s out on Trey Burke, Dante Exum and Rodney Hood, the three other first-rounders Lindsey’s come away with. Still, there may well be intriguing possibilities. Maybe the Pistons, committed as they are to re-signing Reggie Jackson, would be willing to part with Brandon Jennings for former University of Michigan standout Burke and the No. 12 pick. Perhaps the Nuggets would give up the disgrunted Ty Lawson for Exum and the No. 12 pick. Either move would solidify the point for Utah and allow the Jazz to trade uncertainty about whether Exum and Burke will deliver on their promise for a more well-known commodity, but there’s danger in giving up on either of them too soon. That’s particularly true with Exum, who’s still only 19 and who came into his rookie season this year with no college and precious little experience against other high-level talent.

Utah could keep the pick and venture bringing yet another highly drafted point guard onto the team with a selection of Cameron Payne, Jerian Grant or Tyus Jones, but there are other matters the Jazz can address. Alec Burks was the only member of the Jazz who saw regular playing time and hit more than 36.5% of his three-point attempts this past season, so Utah would do well to grab Kentucky sharpshooter Devin Booker if he’s still on the board at No. 12. Burks and Booker play the same position, but unless the Jazz select a point guard, they probably won’t plan on plugging anyone they draft into the starting lineup next season. The Jazz lack a backup center, so Utah could go with the high upside of Myles Turner from Texas or the familiar quantity of Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky.

Utah can also fill holes through free agency. The Jazz can clear up to roughly $16.6MM in cap room against a projected $67.1MM cap if they keep their first-rounder, enough to bid on a restricted free agent or a player entering unrestricted free agency early, like Greg Monroe or Wesley Matthews. Monroe probably wouldn’t have interest in Utah, where he’d compete for minutes against Gobert and Derrick Favors, but Matthews, who spent his rookie season with the Jazz, would be a more realistic possibility, particularly since he would come more cheaply. Such a move would give the Jazz two shooting guards coming off major injuries, and while Utah could afford to be patient as they heal and return to form, it would turn one of them into a highly paid reserve in the long run. The surprise four-year, $42MM extension to which the Jazz signed Burks this past fall is no mega deal, and it would be more palatable to have him as a reserve than it would be for the Jazz to bring in someone to play in front of the more well-compensated Hayward or Favors. Still, Hood played most of his minutes at shooting guard this past season, and there’s little call for the Jazz to spend at a position where they can get quality production on the cheap.

A bid for Patrick Beverley would give the Jazz the potential to become a frightening defensive team, while an offer sheet for Brandon Knight would afford Utah the chance to add scoring punch. The Rockets and Suns nonetheless appear to want their respective point guards back, so the legitimate threat of the match looms for each restricted free agent. Utah could instead spend on its bench, as it did last summer when it signed Trevor Booker to a healthy-sized deal that the Jazz can essentially escape after one season if they want. Booker’s partially guaranteed contract gives the Jazz the flexibility to keep him on the roster while seeing if there’s anyone on whom they’d rather spend his full $4.775MM salary, and either cutting him for the paltry cost of $250K if so or keeping him around if not. The Jazz can similarly sit on the non-guaranteed deals of Chris Johnson, Jack Cooley, Bryce Cotton and Elijah Millsap and wait to see how the market develops, and they can use some combination of those four and Booker as trade ballast if necessary.

That option doesn’t exist with Jeremy Evans, who’s finally hitting unrestricted free agency after five seasons of sticking on the Jazz roster despite failing to stay in the rotation for any long periods of time, with the exception of his 18.3 minutes per game in 2013/14. His minutes regressed this past season, so it seems that Utah is much more likely to retain its other free agent. The Clippers planned to re-sign Joe Ingles after they released him shortly before opening night, but the Jazz snatched his non-guaranteed minimum salary contract off waivers. The Clippers, in need of cheap bench help, could only watch as he validated the fanfare that had seven or eight NBA teams in pursuit of him this past summer, as Marc Stein of ESPN.com reported then. The 27-year-old small forward started 32 games, and while he doesn’t figure to start much going forward, there’s mutual interest in a return, as Gordon Monson of The Salt Lake Tribune reported, and the Jazz can match all offers. A deal somewhere between the three years and $7.3MM that Hawks gave Shelvin Mack and the three years and $10MM they shelled out to Mike Scott makes sense. Both Mack and Scott were restricted free agents last summer, and Hawks GM Danny Ferry, like Lindsey, is a Spurs disciple.

The Jazz are on the rise, but just how far and how quickly they continue to ascend remains to be seen. Kanter was an exception for a front office that’s made a habit of paying to retain its young talent in recent years, and that was as much Kanter’s choice as it was the Jazz’s. Still, no emerging talent on the roster will command eight figures this offseason, and with the salary cap surge coming in 2016, Utah has a chance this summer to use cap space on more seasoned help without compromising its ability to retain its young core. Take advantage of that opportunity, and that 52-30 record for next season is certainly within Utah’s reach.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Booker’s salary is partially guaranteed for $250,000.
2 — The cap hold for Ingles would be $845,059 if the Jazz elect not to tender a qualifying offer.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. 

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Offseason Outlook: Phoenix Suns

May 27th, 2015 at 11:56am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (13th overall)
  • 2nd Round (44th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $41,038,578
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $947,276
  • Options: $2,170,465
  • Cap Holds: $40,617,769
  • Total: $84,774,088

The regression of the Suns this past season was easy to see coming, in some respects. Phoenix’s 2013/14 squad overachieved markedly after it appeared bound for the dregs of the Western Conference, particularly after the Marcin Gortat trade. The Suns took a risk in the offseason, loading up the backcourt with a four-year sign-and-trade deal for Isaiah Thomas and finally, after a protracted negotiation, a five-year contract for Eric Bledsoe. Both moves came in spite of the presence of Goran Dragic, who was entering the final season of his deal before a player option, and in spite of the team’s decision to draft Tyler Ennis 18th overall. It shouldn’t have been a shock when Dragic made it clear he wouldn’t re-sign and that it would be in Phoenix’s best interest to trade him.

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

It was nonetheless surprising to see the Suns not only accommodate Dragic but also, in separate deals, ship out Thomas and Ennis, too. They took in Brandon Knight, but he’s set for a fat raise in restricted free agency this summer, unlike Thomas or Ennis, neither of whom can elect free agency until 2018. Knight is probably a more valuable player than either of them, but it’s almost certain that he’ll command more than the two of them will make put together next season. The Suns laid a lot on the line to acquire Knight and it would be unseemly for the team to just let him walk away in free agency after he made it into only 11 games post-trade, as I argued when I looked at Knight’s free agent stock. The position that Phoenix seems to be in strengthens the leverage that agent Arn Tellem has. Several GMs told Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops during the season that Knight would be worth $12MM a year, and it would take only one GM to drive his price even higher than that.

At least Knight appears uninterested in subjecting Phoenix to the protracted drama that played out prior to the Bledsoe signing last year, and Knight also told the Suns that he doesn’t mind playing with Bledsoe, as Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic wrote. The interest in a new deal between the Suns and Knight is mutual, though there are no guarantees. The Suns would be able to clear maximum-level cap room if they don’t bring back Knight, and GM Ryan McDonough said as the season ended that the team would be aggressive in pursuit of a star. McDonough has made it clear that he thinks highly of Knight, but if the price isn’t right, there are other options. The weather is indeed warm in Phoenix, but it remains to be seen whether there would be enough on the roster without Knight there to attract top-tier free agents to a team that just finished 39-43 and in 10th place in the Western Conference. The Suns, devoid of all but Bledsoe from their once-crowded stable of point guards, would need more than just the insertion of a star to truly contend.

A steal at No. 13 in the draft wouldn’t necessarily help this summer, but it would better Phoenix’s chances in the coming free agent frenzy of 2016. Kansas small forward Kelly Oubre has high upside and would help give the Suns more punch on the wing if he pans out. Kentucky shooting guard Devin Booker, if he’s available, would give the Suns the dead-eye three-point threat they lack after a season in which they finished 20th in three-point percentage. Texas center Myles Turner would probably be worth the gamble here, while Will Sammon of Hoops Rumors suggests the Suns as the best fit for Frank Kaminsky in his profile of the Wisconsin center. Both would serve as alternatives in case Alex Len doesn’t live up to having been the No. 5 overall pick in 2013. Our Eddie Scarito suggests another small forward, Arizona’s Stanley Johnson, in the Hoops Rumors Mock Draft, and he’d surely be a local favorite.

Phoenix will probably use free agency to address whatever need it doesn’t take care of in the draft. The Suns could wait to re-sign Knight and keep his cap hold at nearly $8.9MM to lend themselves greater flexibility, though that would be tricky with the threat of an offer sheet from another team looming. The Suns, with their existing guaranteed salaries, would have close to $55.9MM on the cap with a new deal for Knight at a starting salary of $12MM, the cap hold for the 13th pick, and a pair of roster charges for open roster spots if Phoenix were to strip down and renounce its other free agents. That figure would rise to about $58MM if Danny Granger opts in.  That’s $9.1MM away from the league’s $67.1MM cap projection, well shy of max-level flexbility, but fodder enough for some intriguing additions.

Danny Green could swing to small forward and would shore up Phoenix’s long-range game, though it may well require most, if not all, of that $9.1MM to snag him. Mike Dunleavy would be a cheaper option who could do the same if the Suns can tempt him away from the Bulls. Amar’e Stoudemire had an “extremely high” interest in rejoining the Suns before he signed instead with the Mavs after his buyout from the Knicks, so he seems obtainable for depth inside. Still, Phoenix and Brandan Wright have mutual interest, according to Coro, though Wright’s bloated cap hold of $9.5MM makes him a candidate to be renounced. That doesn’t mean that the Suns wouldn’t re-sign him, but rather that Phoenix would be more likely to do so via cap room or an exception instead of his Bird rights.

Kevin Bradbury, the agent for Gerald Green, offered a few vitriolic remarks in response to Jeff Hornacek’s criticism of Green’s defense, and the swingman at the time was unsure if the Suns wanted to re-sign him after a year in which his minutes dipped sharply. Green said at season’s end that he had a conversation with president of basketball operations Lon Babby that left him optimistic that the Suns want to bring him back, so he, like Wright, may well eat up roster room and salary that would otherwise go to outside free agents. Green’s $6.65MM cap hold isn’t as large as Wright’s, but it’s quite conceivable the Suns renounce Green, too, and circle back to try to re-sign him at a smaller number. There would also be value in keeping those cap holds and operating above the cap. Staying above the cap would give the Suns access to the $5.464MM mid-level instead of the $2.814MM room exception, and since the Suns have a $5.5MM trade exception, they could in essence have two mid-level exceptions. They couldn’t use the trade exception to sign anyone outright, but they could use it to acquire a player via sign-and-trade, floating an offer of a heavily protected second-round pick or a longshot draft-and-stash prospect at a team that’s going to lose its free agent anyway.

Whomever the Suns sign won’t move the needle much if they re-sign Knight at market value, so trades are the primary vehicle for Babby, McDonough and company to make a significant upgrade. The trade exception wouldn’t be enough to acquire a marquee player, but it could help the Suns facilitate a multiplayer deal involving a star. The trade market is nonetheless so far devoid of stars, particularly since DeMarcus Cousins seems off-limits. Roy Hibbert, if he opts in, and Lance Stephenson, Hibbert’s former Pacers teammate, might be among the most noteworthy names in play via trade. Stephenson’s recalcitrance would be a difficult sell to a front office that made its standards for personal and professional conduct clear in the press release announcing Michael Beasley‘s departure from the team two years ago. Hibbert could lift a middle-of-the-pack Suns defense as ranked by NBA.com points per possession data, but the Suns may not be enthusiastic about trying to accommodate his more than $15.514MM salary with Len still developing.

The Suns seemed on the cusp of jumping into the Western Conference elite a year ago, but that would have required a lot to break their way. Phoenix instead took a step back this season, but the team is still better off than where it seemed to be at the beginning of 2013/14. The realistic goals this summer involve hanging on to Knight at a price that’s a cut below the max, making marginal upgrades to weak spots on the roster, and maintaining flexibility for the whirlwind summer of 2016, when the salary cap zooms skyward. Accomplish all of that, and the Suns will have a realistic shot to become a title contender by opening night in 2016.

Cap Footnotes

1 — The Suns waived Beasley in September 2013 and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next three seasons.
2 — McNeal’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 21st.
3 — The cap hold for Granger would be $2,492,400 if he opts out.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Detroit Pistons

May 25th, 2015 at 7:35pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (8th overall)
  • 2nd Round (38th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $27,875,456
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $9,437,494
  • Options: $1,270,964
  • Cap Holds: $32,509,251
  • Total: $71,093,165

Guarded optimism characterizes the vibe around the Pistons as Stan Van Gundy heads into his second offseason as the team’s coach and president of basketball operations. Armed with ample salary cap space and a lottery pick, Van Gundy has the elements in place to finally get the Pistons out of their cycle of misery. They haven’t made the playoffs in six seasons, the longest drought for any team in the watered-down Eastern Conference. It’s a shocking state of affairs for a franchise that not long ago reached the conference finals six consecutive seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Van Gundy had never missed the playoffs while coaching a full season during his career until the PIstons’ rollercoaster 32-50 campaign in 2014/15. He’s intent upon turning things around quickly and has the full backing, emotionally and financially, of owner Tom Gores to make that happen. Much of that is predicated on free agency, with two of the Pistons’ starters heading into the market in July.

Greg Monroe took the unusual step of signing the team’s qualifying offer last season as a restricted free agent, giving him the opportunity to explore his options as an unrestricted free agent this summer. Van Gundy has repeatedly stated his desire to retain Monroe, though many NBA observers expect the 6’11” power forward to wind up in New York or another city. Monroe and agent David Falk have not ruled out the Pistons but it’s unlikely they’ll break the bank to keep him. The financial flexibility and the draft pick provide other options for the Pistons to replace Monroe, a solid, low-post scorer and rebounder. Monroe has his shortcomings — he cannot stretch the floor offensively and he struggles to guard quicker players at his position.

In contrast to Monroe’s situation, the Pistons anticipate re-signing restricted free agent Reggie Jackson as their starting point guard. Van Gundy made a bold trade-deadline move by acquiring Jackson from Oklahoma City and immediately installing the Thunder backup as his floor leader. Thrilled at the opportunity, Jackson struggled in the early going as the Pistons fell out of the playoff picture but he emerged as an offensive force once he settled in. Jackson averaged 19.9 points and 10.9 assists during the last 16 games of the season.

Several other teams were in the bidding for Jackson at the trade deadline and a substantial offer sheet could come his way. But the Pistons are prepared to match any offer and Jackson has given every indication he’s staying, going so far as to organize offseason workouts with his current teammates.

Money will not be an issue. The Pistons have about $27.9MM guaranteed to five players, plus a cap hold of approximately $2.4MM for their draft pick. Factoring in roster charges for the minimum 12 roster spots, the Pistons could have as much as $33.6MM to spend with the current projected cap of $67.1MM. Even if they retain Jackson and Monroe, they should still have enough cash left over to pursue another quality free agent.

The most pressing need for Detroit is a reliable outside shooter and solid defender at small forward. It finished the season with aging veterans Tayshaun Prince and Caron Butler at that spot. Prince, an unrestricted free agent, will likely pursue opportunities with contending teams. The team holds a $4.5MM option on Butler’s contract and will probably release him back into the free agent market. The Pistons will also require a starting power forward if Monroe walks.

The No. 8 overall pick in this year’s draft offers a way to fill one of those holes. The draft is chock full of forwards that could be available when the Pistons select, including Justise Winslow, Stanley Johnson, Mario Hezonja, Kristaps Porzingis, Frank Kaminsky, Myles Turner, Trey Lyles and Sam Dekker. With backup center Joel Anthony entering unrestricted free agency, the Pistons could also shift gears and choose Willie Cauley-Stein if he’s available. That would give them a dynamic backup to franchise player Andre Drummond.

A lottery pick alone won’t resolve their issues. They must sign a top-level free agent or make a blockbuster deal to get a difference-maker at one of the forward spots. Unfortunately, many of the big names in free agency — Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Khris Middleton — are restricted and will almost certainly be retained by their current teams. Stars like LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love (if he opts out) are unlikely to seriously consider a non-contender like the Pistons.

More realistic targets would be the unrestricted Hawks duo of DeMarre Carroll and Paul Millsap, Magic restricted free agent Tobias Harris and the Nets’ Thaddeus Young (if he exercises his early termination option). If that fails, Van Gundy will have to find a trade partner and use the cap space to absorb a big contract.

Upgrading the talent is not the only issue confronting the Pistons this offseason. They would like to lock up Drummond before he becomes a restricted free agent next summer. Gores considers him a max player, so that will not be a sticking point. If they keep Jackson, they’ll have to figure out what to do with former starter Brandon Jennings, who is recovering from a torn Achilles tendon. Would Jennings accept a backup role at this stage of his career? It would make sense to move Jennings and his approximate $8.34MM expiring contract, but it will be tough to do that until he proves he’s still got the same explosion in his first step.

A smaller issue is the status of backup power forward Anthony Tolliver, who has a partially guaranteed $3MM contract for 2015-16. Tolliver, another midseason acquisition, impressed Van Gundy with his play and professionalism and will likely remain as the main reserve at power forward.

Last summer, Van Gundy was preoccupied with evaluating his roster and assembling a staff. He took a conservative approach to free agency — his main acquisition was shooting guard Jodie Meeks, who was signed away from the Lakers for a three-year, $18.81MM deal. He didn’t have a first-round pick because the Pistons had to convey it to the Hornets to fulfill a two-year-old trade obligation. Van Gundy can contemplate bigger moves in his second offseason without all those distractions and concerns. If the Pistons do not enter training camp with an improved roster, it won’t be for lack of trying.

Cap Footnotes

1 — The Pistons waived Smith in December and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next five seasons.
2 — The Pistons waived Gray in October and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next three seasons.
3 — Tolliver’s salary is partially guaranteed for $400K.
4 — Miller’s salary would be partially guaranteed for $50K if he remains under contract through July 15th, $100K if he remains under contract through the date of the team’s first regular season game, and $125K if he remains under contract through November 15th.
5 — The cap hold for Martin would be $947,276 if he opts out.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Dana Gauruder contributed to this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Oklahoma City Thunder

May 25th, 2015 at 4:12pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • Enes Kanter ($11,389,348) — $7,471,412 qualifying offer
  • Kyle Singler ($2,725,003) — $2,725,003 qualifying offer1

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • None

Other Cap Holds

  • No. 14 pick ($1,684,600)
  • (Josh Huestis $950,200)2
  • (Derek Fisher $947,276)3

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (14th overall)
  • 2nd Round (48th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $78,260,713
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $0
  • Options: $0
  • Cap Holds: $17,696,427
  • Total: $95,957,140

The last day of Kevin Durant‘s contract is still more than a year off, but the Thunder brass has been dropping hints for months that it already feels the pressure. The calendar year of 2015 has been the most tumultuous for the Oklahoma City organization since the James Harden trade in 2012. The team dealt away Reggie Jackson and two future first-round picks in trades that brought back Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters, among others, and took the team over the luxury tax threshold. The Thunder replaced coach Scott Brooks after nearly seven seasons with NBA coaching neophyte Billy Donovan. And injuries that cost Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and others significant time left the team out of the playoffs for the first time since the franchise’s first season in Oklahoma City.

Mar 16, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder center Enes Kanter (34) during the game against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Still, the summer ahead allows GM Sam Presti to take a breath, if he chooses. Durant’s broken right foot is healing, the trades the team made during the season strengthened the team’s supporting cast, and no one on the roster can elect unrestricted free agency this year. Presti could have the same 15 players who ended the season on the roster back for opening night of the 2015/16 season if he wants to. It seems more likely there will be at least a slight degree of turnover, if for no reason other than the presence of this year’s No. 14 overall pick in the team’s quiver.

The Thunder aren’t a typical lottery team, so they’re as apt as any to value prospects who are ready to contribute immediately. So, raw talents like Texas center Myles Turner and Kansas small forward Kelly Oubre, both of whom have decent chances to be available when the 14th pick comes around, don’t appear to be fits for Oklahoma City. Arizona small forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is a more tempting possibility as a defensive-minded complement to Waiters if the Thunder is confident that Hollis-Jefferson can swing over to shooting guard. Still, neither Waiters nor Hollis-Jefferson is a strong three-point shooter, so that would invite defenders to clog the lane for Durant and Westbrook. Kentucky two-guard Devin Booker would give the team plenty of outside shooting, but he’ll probably go off the board a few picks before the Thunder would have a chance to grab him.

Perhaps the choice who makes the most sense is Notre Dame point guard Jerian Grant. He was a passable three-point shooter in college, knocking down 35.7% of his attempts in his first three years before he slumped to 31.6% this year. Moreover, he’s an NBA-ready point guard with four years of college under his belt who can score, as his 17.1 points per game across his junior and senior seasons demonstrates. The Thunder are set at backup point guard with D.J. Augustin, but Grant, at 6’5″ with a 6’7.5″ wingspan, would be a fit alongside Westbrook in two point guard sets. Our Eddie Scarito has the Thunder going with another point guard, Murray State sophomore Cameron Payne, in the Hoops Rumors Mock Draft.

The Thunder’s decision about whom to draft may well involve more work than the one surrounding their most notable free agent. Presti has made it obvious that he wants to retain Kanter, and so it appears Oklahoma City is willing to pay a premium to make it happen. A max offer from another team would probably make Presti think twice, but it still seems likely that the Thunder would match to keep a center who put up 18.7 points and 11.0 rebounds in just 31.1 minutes per game across 26 appearances after the trade that brought him to Oklahoma City. That’s a small sample size, and his defensive shortcomings are profound. Still, offensive production like that at the center position has long made front office personnel salivate. The Thunder would probably target a deal like the four-year, $48MM extension the Magic signed this past fall with Nikola Vucevic, who similarly excels at scoring and rebounding while playing subpar defense. Vucevic hadn’t displayed the knack for scoring before this season that his fellow native of Switzerland did in his time with the Thunder, so that may be the difference that ultimately drives up Kanter’s value.

The Thunder have reason to match even a max offer since, with commitments for next season that already take them well past the projected $67.1MM salary cap, they wouldn’t have means to replace Kanter with another comparable free agent, as The Oklahoman’s Darnell Mayberry recently noted. The same logic applies to Kyle Singler, Mayberry argued, though surely Singler won’t be drawing interest for the max. A logical limit, probably somewhere around the equivalent of the $5.464MM non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception, surely exists to the Thunder’s willingness to pay Singler to return. Even that would probably be too much for a player who Basketball-Reference’s Box Plus/Minus and ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus indicate is a minus on both ends of the floor. He’s nonetheless done enough to stick on the court as a rotation player and occasional starter during his three NBA seasons, and he has value as a floor spacer, but that duty could fall to Steve Novak if Singler receives an offer from elsewhere that the Thunder feel compelled to pass on.

Still, the Thunder would like to re-sign Singler, and that makes it tougher to envision the team finding room on the roster to sign Josh Huestis, last year’s first round pick, whom the Thunder stashed in the D-League as part of an unprecedented arrangement.  Huestis isn’t making a fuss about the idea of staying with the Thunder’s D-League affiliate for one more year, and even if he did, he’d have little leverage. The worst-case scenario for the Thunder is that he leaves their D-League team for a more lucrative deal overseas and develops there, but Oklahoma City can control his NBA rights in perpetuity if it wants to.

If Huestis does sign with the Thunder this summer, that will almost certainly require the Thunder to trade one of their 13 players with fully guaranteed salaries for next season. A majority of Hoops Rumors readers who voted in a recent poll said the Thunder need major changes around Durant if they’re to win a title next season, but making moves that significantly upgrade the team is easier said than done. Westbrook would presumably be untouchable, but the Thunder could gauge the market for what it would bear in a sign-and-trade involving Kanter, to see if other teams still believe Waiters can live up to having been a No. 4 overall pick, or even to see what Ibaka would fetch. Some combination of those three would make a pretty tempting offer for a star if one became available, but no marquee names seem to be on the block at this point.

A smaller-scale trade is much more likely, though Waiters, who struggles on defense and with his outside shot, bears watching if there is indeed a team still enamored with his potential. Possible trade candidates include Mitch McGary, who was effective in the meager playing time he saw, especially on the boards. In spite of McGary’s 16.6 PER this past season, the Thunder would have difficulty finding more playing time for him this coming season if they re-sign Kanter. There’d be little use for Novak, especially if Singler returns, but Novak remains a dead-eye three-point shooter who’s going into the final year of his contract. Perry Jones III has barely seen playing time over his three years with Oklahoma City, but he’s a former first-round pick, and he, too, is entering a contract year.

Jones, along with Lamb and Waiters, is one of three members of the Thunder up for rookie scale extensions this offseason, but only Waiters will likely merit any consideration for one. That’s still a tricky proposition for Oklahoma City, which doesn’t know whether it will still be building around Durant come 2016/17, the season that an extension for Waiters would kick in. Committing money for Waiters would stand to complicate matters if Durant leaves and the Thunder are trying to retool. Waiters’ trade value is probably as low as it has been since he entered the league, so the Thunder could get a discount if they’re high on his potential, but Waiters may well hesitate to bet against himself like that.

Presti has to think about a future without Durant even as he does everything in his power to keep the four-time scoring champ. The team’s moves of the past several months signal his thinking along that dual track, as the talent he’s added has chiefly been younger and still developing, as Kanter exemplifies. The big man can boost the team’s title chances for next season and help in the long run, with or without Durant, if the Thunder re-sign him this summer. The stakes are incredibly high for the Thunder next season, but barring the emergence of a superstar trade candidate on another team, they’ve done just about all they can to set themselves up for success while still preparing for the worst.

Cap Footnotes

1 — The cap hold for Singler would be $2,071,000 if the Thunder elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
2 — The team may remove the cap hold for Huestis, the 29th pick in the 2014 draft, if both sides agree in writing that they will not sign a deal during the 2015/16 season.
3 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation why Fisher technically remains on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Clippers

May 25th, 2015 at 9:56am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • None

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $58,077,790
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $8,748,342
  • Options: $0
  • Cap Holds: $24,060,085
  • Total: $90,886,217

This looked like the year the Clippers would make that next step forward. They were one win away from their first-ever Western Conference Finals berth, but they whiffed on all three chances to grab that victory. Instead, the team hit its head against the same ceiling it has repeatedly, losing in the conference semifinals for the third year out of four. What’s worse is that the specter of losing DeAndre Jordan in free agency presents a clear path in which they could get significantly worse for next season, and there’s no readily apparent way to get much better.

Apr 14, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Clippers center DeAndre Jordan (6) against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

No, a return to the lottery isn’t in store, given the continued presence of both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, both signed through 2016/17 with player options for 2017/18. Yet with more than $58MM guaranteed against a projected $67.1MM cap, and more than $6.7MM tied up in non-guaranteed salary to key contributors Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes, the Clippers would have no cap flexibility to sign an adequate replacement should Jordan bolt. The former 35th overall pick has spoken in glowing terms about Doc Rivers, the coach who took him from playing only 24.5 minutes per game in 2012/13 to an All-NBA Third Team selection in the span of two years, but Jordan has said the Clippers aren’t necessarily the favorites to sign him. Indeed, Jordan has expressed through back channels that he will have extreme interest in joining his home-state Mavericks this summer, multiple sources told Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com last month.

The Clippers appear ready to make him a five-year maximum-salary offer. Jordan has said he won’t sign a one-year deal to try to reap an even greater payday when the salary cap escalates sharply in the summer of 2016, so ostensibly the Clippers can tempt him with the fifth year and 3% higher raises that only they can offer him. Of course, Jordan never said he wouldn’t sign a two- or three-year deal to take advantage of the salary cap when it’s projected to rise into the $100MMs. The financial advantage the Clippers have wouldn’t be as pronounced in that scenario. It could well come down to comfort rather than money. While Jordan’s affection for Rivers is obvious, he’s rumored to have had a falling out with Paul, though teammate Dahntay Jones says that isn’t true.

A Jordan departure would carry a silver lining of sorts for the Clippers. Removing the league’s leading rebounder and All-Defensive First Team center from the roster would leave the Clippers without a reasonable chance to break through in a way they didn’t this year, and so it would likely goose Rivers into more extensive retooling with an eye on the summer of 2016. They could try to trade Crawford’s expiring, partially guaranteed contract for a future first-round pick or a promising young player on a rookie scale contract. They could explore what sort of bounty they might get in return for selling high on Redick, who’s coming off the best season of his career, knowing that he’d be 32 by the time they could spend freely again. They could try their luck at using the full mid-level again after blowing it on Spencer Hawes last year. None of those approaches would necessarily bear fruit, but as long as the Clippers didn’t clutter their 2016/17 books too much, missing on Jordan would allow them the chance to go after Kevin Durant and other star 2016 free agents.

Jordan is, without a doubt, one of the top centers in the game, but he’s no Durant. Maxing out Jordan this summer would mean he’d be making in the neighborhood of $20.5MM in 2016/17, and coupled with the more than $20.1MM that Griffin has coming and the nearly $22.9MM the team committed to Paul, and the Clippers would have about $63.5MM against the preliminary projection of an $89MM salary cap for three players alone, never mind the money on the books for Redick and Hawes. That would make it almost impossible for the Clippers to sign Durant to his estimated $25MM maximum salary.

The effects of a max deal for Jordan would be even more immediate, since it would essentially force the Clippers to either pay the tax or unload a key member of the team, like Redick or Crawford. A slight chance exists that the Clippers could dodge the tax apron, the line $4MM above the tax threshold, but it’s more likely the Clips would zoom above the apron, too. That means the team would be unable to acquire a player via sign-and-trade or spend more than the $3.376MM taxpayer’s mid-level amount on the starting salary for any free agent from another team. Just crossing the tax threshold carries with it stricter salary-matching rules for trades, never mind the apron.

Regardless of whether the Clippers sign Jordan or not, they’re already hamstrung when it comes to Austin Rivers. They can’t sign him for a starting salary any more than $3,110,796, which is the value of the rookie scale team option that the Pelicans declined before the season. That rule is in place so teams can’t try to get around the rookie scale and give their recent first-round picks more money as an enticement to stick around for the long term, but it doesn’t matter that the Clippers had nothing to do with that option decision. It still applies, even though Rivers was traded twice this season. It wouldn’t matter if the Clippers wanted to sign him using cap room, the mid-level, or any form of exception. That $3,110,796 figure is as high as they can go.

Of course, that doesn’t mean any other team will want to exercise its right to pay him more than that. Rivers had his moments in the playoffs, when he shot 37.1% from three-point range, but he was still a net negative during the postseason according to Basketball-Reference’s Box Plus/Minus metric, just as that statistic suggests he has been during all four regular seasons of his NBA career. Doc Rivers unsurprisingly wants to re-sign his son, and there is a degree of promise left for the former 10th overall pick who won’t turn 23 until August 1st. Still, there won’t be a clamor for his services from competing teams, and even $3,110,796 may well be too rich for the Clippers’ tastes, especially considering the other salary constraints they face.

The perception of nepotism concerned Doc Rivers before GM Dave Wohl and a pair of assistant coaches talked him into trading for his son. Doc Rivers suggested that Wohl had worked to convince him for months, dating back to last summer. Yet for myriad other reasons, Doc Rivers might be wise to give Wohl or someone else the final say in the front office. Rivers succeeded with the Redick sign-and-trade in his first weeks on the job, but he’s done little since to upgrade the talent on the roster, outside of the enhancements he’s made to Jordan and others through his coaching. Perhaps Rivers would be well-advised to concentrate on what he does best, better than just about anyone in the game, and simply coach while someone else handles player personnel. Owner Steve Ballmer just last summer gave Rivers a five-year deal worth more than $50MM to serve both as coach and president of basketball operations, but Rivers needn’t do two jobs for Ballmer to get his money’s worth. Both Wohl and assistant GM Gary Sacks have been at the controls before, and if the Clippers wanted to look elsewhere, the chance to work for the deep-pocketed Ballmer in a warm-weather glamour market with two incumbent superstars on the team would be appealing to just about any executive.

Still, it doesn’t seem like Rivers is going to be without his front office responsibilities anytime soon, and when it comes to keeping Jordan around, that’s probably an advantage for the Clippers. Whoever’s running the team will have to excel at building the team’s depth, or at least improve on the spartan supporting cast that’s there now. The placement of Paul, Griffin and Jordan on this year’s All-NBA Teams showed the Clippers’ core is as strong if not stronger than any other in the league. Paul could overcome his playoff demons, Jordan could make more free throws, and Griffin could challenge for the title of the best player in the league, and the Clippers could still fall short of a title if the team can’t fill a rotation with enough players worthy of staying on the floor.

Cap Footnotes

1 — The Clippers waived Delfino in August 2014 and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next five seasons.
2 — The Clippers waived Farmar as part of a buyout deal in January and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next three seasons.
3 — The Clippers waived Raduljica in August 2014 and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next five seasons.
4 — Crawford’s salary is partially guaranteed for $1,500,000.
5 — Barnes’ salary is partially guaranteed for $1,000,000.
6 — Hudson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 15th.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. 

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Offseason Outlook: Brooklyn Nets

May 24th, 2015 at 4:28pm CST by Zachary Links

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (29th overall)
  • 2nd Round (41st overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $58,678,533
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,891,323
  • Options: $28,299,441
  • Cap Holds: $12,179,703
  • Total: $103,049,000

Mikhail Prokhorov knows how to have a good time.  When he’s not counting his billions, the Nets owner is busy partying with “a phalanx of [20] beautiful women in the French Alps” or heli-skiing in Vancouver.  He also knows how to hit it off with NBA superstars, like Carmelo Anthony.  In 2011, the two met as the Nets were pushing Anthony (then with the Nuggets) to sign off on a trade sending him east and agree to a three-year extension.

“It was a fantastic meeting, trust me,” Prokhorov told Darren Rovell of CNBC. “No words, live music, excellent atmosphere. We looked into each other’s eyes. Just real man talk.”

Mar 29, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Brooklyn Nets center Brook Lopez (11) goes to the basket against Los Angeles Lakers center Jordan Hill (27) and forward Tarik Black (28) during the second half at Barclays Center. The Brooklyn Nets won 107-99. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

It might have been for the best in hindsight – that deal would have cost the Nets Derrick Favors, Devin Harris, and four first-round picks – but the man talk of the evening did not sway Melo.  Months later, the Nets parlayed Favors, Harris, and two first-round choices into Deron Williams, who would later be re-signed to a contract that stands as one of the worst in the NBA today.  Williams, Celtics stars Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, Joe “Jesus” Johnson, and Brook Lopez were brought together to form one of the league’s best starting units, but the Nets didn’t get very far with that group.  In five years, Prokhorov’s Nets have employed four coaches and made zero conference finals appearances.

Prokhorov knows how to have a good time, but it remains to be seen if knows how to bring a championship to Brooklyn, especially with the purse strings pulled considerably tighter than they were two years ago.

There are several bad contracts on the Nets’ roster but Williams’ aforementioned deal is, without question, the most onerous of the bunch.  The guard is owed ~$43MM over the next two seasons and that’s a rate that would be high even if he reverted back to his Utah form.  Now, Williams is a temperamental veteran with two surgically-repaired ankles and the deal is an absolute albatross.  Nets GM Billy King claims that there is a market for Williams, but, frankly, that’s hard to imagine at this point, unless the Nets are willing to take back an equally bloated contract.  The Nets also aren’t interested in a buyout, and that will likely lead them to turn their attention to Williams’ backcourt mate.

Set to earn $24.9MM in 2015/16, Johnson doesn’t come cheap either.  However, with one less year and probably more quality basketball left in the tank, Johnson holds more trade value than Williams, if only by default.  Last season, Johnson averaged 14.4 PPG while shooting 43.5% from the floor and 35.9% from beyond the arc, all significant dips from his career averages.  That dip in production was reflected in his PER as well.  Johnson was never an efficiency darling outside of his best years in Atlanta, but his 14.1 PER in 2014/15 rates him as a below average player.  Much like Williams, any dispatching of Johnson will call for the Nets to take back a bad contract and get little else, if anything, in the way of value.

Brooklyn may be stuck with Williams and Johnson and, at this point, it seems a safe bet that they’ll be in black and white in October.  The same can’t be said for other Nets notables like Lopez, Thaddeus Young, and Mirza Teletovic.

Lopez is one of the most offensively gifted centers in the NBA when he’s healthy, but unfortunately he’s spent a ton of time on the sidelines in recent seasons.  In 2011-12, Lopez broke his right foot and missed the first 32 games of the lockout-shortened season and his return saw him play five games before a sprained ankle shut him down for good.  Two years later, a foot injury cut his season short after just 17 games.  The injury bug reared its head a bit again this past season, but Lopez mostly weathered the storm and played 72 games, averaging 17.2 PPG and 7.4 RPG in less than 30 minutes per game.  This summer, Lopez will have to decide whether to exercise his $16.74MM player option or to opt out in search of a long-term deal.   On one hand, Lopez might want to jump at a comfortable multi-year pact given his injury history.  On the other hand, a longer deal would preclude him from truly cashing in after the league’s next big TV contract.  It’s not hard to envision a scenario in which Lopez goes the safer route while staying put.  The 27-year-old could very well opt out of his deal and immediately sign a max-level contract with Brooklyn.

Young, by all accounts, has been rather happy in Brooklyn following the trade that sent him from the Timberwolves to the Nets. “It was the perfect situation for me, especially with me being good friends with Billy [King], just knowing him and him drafting me in Philly,” Young said.“So it was a good situation, plus they had the right mix of players for me and I felt like I could be a great complementary piece to a lot of guys on this team.”  Earlier this month, in his exit interview with the press, Young hinted to reporters that his agent, Jim Tanner, has advised him to opt in. Young’s option for 2015/16 would pay him $10.2MM and while he could get a longer deal, Tanner would like to see him wait until the summer of 2016 when the salary cap rises.

Teletovic is a restricted free agent this summer but he recently told the Bosnian press that his “desire” is to stay with the Nets.  Last season was a trying one for the sharpshooter as he was diagnosed with multiple blood clots in his lungs in January, ending his season early, save for three playoff appearances.  It was a year the 29-year-old would probably like to forget, but he expressed major gratitude towards the Nets for the medical care they provided him during that time.  That’s a critical issue for players, and as we saw with Luol Deng and the Bulls, it’s an issue that can make or break a relationship.  The Nets can match competing bids for Teletovic, who was averaging 8.5 points and 4.9 rebounds across 40 games before he was shut down, if they tender a qualifying offer worth $4,210,125, and they intend to do so.

While Lopez and Young will wrestle with their decisions a bit, Alan Anderson already knows what he’s doing.  “I’m free,” Anderson said earlier this month, according to Tim Bontemps of the New York Post. “I mean, I would love to stay in Brooklyn, but I am a free agent. So I will be free.” The Nets will have Anderson’s Early Bird rights, so they’ll have some additional flexibility to re-sign him.  Still, they may only go so far to retain the veteran.  Anderson, like Lopez and Young, has until June 29th to make the call.

The Nets have publicly said they’re willing to go into the repeater tax to keep Lopez for next season and beyond, but there isn’t a ton of financial flexibility for them to work with this summer.  Normally, the Nets could find themselves a difference maker in the draft after finishing with a pedestrian 38-44 record, but the Johnson deal of 2012 calls for them to switch first-round picks with the Hawks, leaving them with the No. 29 selection rather than the No. 15 pick.

Even though it would create a logjam, the Nets might look to grab a point guard in the draft in order to get some foot speed back at the position.  With Williams and Jarrett Jack (who has had some very strong stretches in Brooklyn) at the one, the Nets were torched by Atlanta’s Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder in the playoffs.  The likes of Cameron Payne and Jerian Grant will probably go earlier in the draft – you know, where the Nets were supposed to pick – but other options like Delon Wright and Terry Rozier could be available.   The Nets can also be expected to target shooters given the uncertain futures of Teletovic and Anderson.  Eastern Washington’s Tyler Harvey might be a bit of a one-way player, but he knows how to score and he’ll likely be there at No. 29.

Whoever the Nets take with their first-round pick had better be solid considering their lack of draft choices going forward.  Brooklyn owes its 2016 and 2018 first-round picks to the Celtics thanks to the blockbuster deal of 2013 and the C’s can swap picks with the Nets in 2017.  The Nets can’t afford not to get this one right and, frankly, King will have to do better than he has in years past.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Clark receives a $200K guarantee if he remains under contract through October 26th.
2 — Morris receives a $25K guarantee if he remains under contract through July 1st.
3 — Brown receives a $100K guarantee if he remains under contract through July 1st, a $150K guarantee if he remains under contract through July 15th, a $200K guarantee if he remains under contract through September 1st, and a full guarantee if he remains under contract through September 29th.
4 — Jefferson receives a $100K guarantee if he remains under contract through July 1st and a full guarantee if he remains under contract through September 29th.
5 — The cap hold for Lopez if he opts out would be the lesser of $23,578,593 or the NBA’s maximum salary for a player with seven years of experience. It’s likely to be the latter.
6 — The cap hold for Young if he opts out would be $14,491,304.
7 — The cap hold for Anderson if he opts out would be $1,658,879.
8 — Jordan’s cap hold would be $947,276 if the Nets decline to tender a qualifying offer.
9 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation why these players listed in parentheses technically remain on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Chuck Myron contributed to this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Memphis Grizzlies

May 22nd, 2015 at 10:00am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (25th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $37,881,575
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,822,583
  • Options: $9,200,000
  • Cap Holds: $37,644,480
  • Total: $88,548,638

Five straight years, the Grizzlies have taken their core of Tony Allen, Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph to the playoffs, and five straight years, they’ve failed to break through to the Finals, much less win a title. A loss to the 67-win Warriors in this year’s playoffs wasn’t at all unexpected, but it was nonetheless tough to take after Memphis broke out to a 2-1 series lead. It’s worth wondering if this team, as constructed, can ever reach the pinnacle. The Grizzlies appear prepared to give it another try, to foist a maximum-salary contract on the 30-year-old Gasol with the faith that his improvement this season wasn’t the last step forward he’ll take as a player before he begins an inevitable age-induced series of steps back. Gasol, whose heart is in Memphis but who wants to win, has to decide this summer if he, too, believes that it’s possible with this Grizzlies team.

May 5, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) passes the basketball during the third quarter in game two of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena. The Grizzlies defeated the Warriors 97-90. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA TODAY Sports Images

The former Defensive Player of the Year has given precious few hints about the path he’ll choose, but signals from elsewhere suggest Gasol’s favored path leads right back where he’s been. The Spurs worry Memphis the most among Gasol’s many fans among NBA front offices, but they’re poised to pursue LaMarcus Aldridge, seen as more obtainable, before they go after Gasol, as Marc Stein of ESPN.com recently reported.  The Knicks became pessimistic early in the season about their chances to land Gasol, as Marc Berman of the New York Post heard then, and more recently Beno Udrih, whom the Grizzlies claimed off waivers from the Knicks last year, said he doesn’t think the Knicks have a chance. Indeed, most of Gasol’s teammates think he’ll be back, according to Michael Wallace of ESPN.com, and GM Chris Wallace does, too, as he told WHBQ-AM.

If somehow they turn out to be wrong, it would be a mighty blow to the franchise but not necessarily a devastating one. Memphis would likely be able to clear enough cap room for a max offer to at least the marquee free agents eligible for the 30% max, if not those in line for 35% or more. The Grizzlies could pitch Aldridge on the idea of having a team where he’d be an unquestioned lead dog. They could point to Gasol’s offensive strides and tell DeAndre Jordan that he can make the same sort of improvements under coach Dave Joerger and his staff. They could rectify perhaps the franchise’s most egregious mistake, trading Kevin Love on draft night in 2008, and tell him, if he opts out this summer, that he can compete for titles in Memphis just as he could in Cleveland but without the pressure of “fit in or fit out” admonitions from LeBron James.

Still, it appears the most likely scenario involves the Grizzlies luring none other than their own star to sign a 30% max deal, probably for the full five seasons. Unless Gasol engineers a short-term deal, Memphis would luck out and avoid him catching the first wave of the rising salary cap when it rolls in next season. The Grizzlies as it is are without any eight-figure salaries on the books for next season, and while a max deal for Gasol and an opt-in from Jeff Green would keep Memphis from opening cap room this summer, the team would be primed to go into the summer of 2016 with plenty of flexibility. That’s when Conley comes up for a new deal to replace the bargain contract that’s allowed the Grizzlies to make other moves to stay on the fringes of the title picture the past few seasons. Re-signing Conley would take the higher max that Gasol appears to be missing out on, and while whatever deal Gasol might sign this summer wouldn’t look like quite as much of a bargain come 2016/17 as Conley has been, the Grizzlies would benefit nonetheless.

For now, Memphis is waiting on Gasol and Green. It appears the thinking for now is that Green will opt in, as Stein wrote, but that’s far from certain. If Green opts out and Gasol re-signs, Memphis could open roughly $7MM in cap space, based on the projected $67.1MM cap and an estimated $19MM max for Gasol. That would involve stripping away a host of supporting characters, including Kosta Koufos, and unloading the 25th overall pick or using it on a draft-and-stash prospect. There would be ways for the Grizzlies to use that space to shore up some of their deficiencies. DeMarre Carroll would fit right in defensively and give the team a legitimate three-point threat. The same could be said of Danny Green, while Arron Afflalo, should he opt out of his deal with the Blazers, is a proven scorer who could add another dimension to the Grizzlies offense. Still, it would take a lot of contingencies to break in the right direction for any of them to end up in Memphis.

It seems more likely that Memphis stays above the cap and has the $5.464MM mid-level as its primary financial tool for an upgrade. Koufos has expressed a desire for more playing time, making him a threat to bolt, so the Grizzlies may well find themselves debating the merits of an upgrade on the wing or at backup center. The team’s level of faith that Jordan Adams, last year’s first-round pick, can make a contribution next season would play into that. Memphis knows what it has in Jon Leuer, who’s been on the fringe of the rotation the past two seasons, so that might be comfort enough for the club to go after the likes of Marco Belinelli, Mike Dunleavy, or Jared Dudley with the mid-level. The Grizzlies could probably split the mid-level and still come away with Gerald Green, Rodney Stuckey, Luke Babbitt or Wesley Johnson, though each of them comes with the risk of being just another wing player who doesn’t give Memphis enough of what it needs.

Indeed, these Grizzlies have always lacked a dynamic threat on the wing who can both attack the basket and shoot from the outside while playing capable defense. Such talents aren’t easy to find for a team without eight-figure cap flexibility, but the test for Wallace is to find one on the cheap, develop one from within or, as he and former CEO Jason Levien have tried to do since the Rudy Gay trade, cobble together the right mix of flawed but talented role players. That’s not easy, but Wallace would surely be glad to attack that deficiency rather than worry about how to replace his star center.

The emergence of the Grizzlies as one of the league’s most respected defensive forces over the past several years mirrored Gasol’s development into the same, and that’s no coincidence. This summer will go a long way toward determining whether that’s as far as they both can go, or if there’s another growth spurt left for both sides.

Cap Footnotes

1 — The Grizzlies waived Melo in August 2013 and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next three seasons.
2 — The Grizzlies waived Franklin in August 2014 and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next five seasons.
3 — Udrih’s salary is partially guaranteed for $923,000.
4 — Green’s salary is partially guaranteed for $150,000.
5 — Smith’s salary becomes partially guaranteed for $150K if he remains under contract through July 15th and fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 25th.
6 — The cap hold for Green would be $13,800,000 if he opts out.
7 — The cap hold for Calathes would be $947,276 if the Grizzlies elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
8 — The cap hold for Gasol will be the lesser of $23,744,532 and the NBA’s maximum salary for a player with his seven years of experience. That maximum will almost certainly be less than  $23,744,532, so the number listed above is an estimate of the max.
9 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation why these players technically remain on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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