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Offseason Outlook: Phoenix Suns

June 15th, 2016 at 6:52pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

Winning As A Negative

Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports Images

Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports Images

It’s rare that a season in which a team nearly doubles its win total can be looked upon as a negative, but such was the case with Phoenix’s 48-win campaign back in 2013/14. The franchise had won just 25 contests the year prior and wasn’t expected to compete for a playoff spot. But the unexpected success of that squad prompted team management to increase its expectations, overvalue its assets and make a number of questionable roster decisions focused on the present rather than looking toward the future. Phoenix has been a sub-.500 team since that season and are still searching for an on-court identity as a franchise, having seemingly scrapped the point guard-laden approach fostered under former coach Jeff Hornacek with no clear-cut philosophical direction to replace it.

To Rebuild, Or Not To Rebuild?

Phoenix stands at a crossroads this offseason and needs to decide if it believes that a veteran core comprised of Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight and Tyson Chandler is good enough to contend in the Western Conference. If the team’s backcourt can remain healthy, which is in no way a given despite the stellar reputation of the Suns’ training staff, a playoff berth isn’t out of the question next season. But even if the Suns are able to make it to the postseason, the franchise isn’t likely going to be a serious challenger for an NBA title anytime soon. Not without a notable free agent signing or two this summer, at the very least. The other available option is to embrace a full rebuild and focus on surrounding Devin Booker, Alex Len, T.J. Warren and whomever the team selects with the No. 4 overall pick with complementary talent that can grow alongside those players.

One pivotal decision, if you’ll forgive the pun, will be regarding the center position. The team signed Chandler last offseason when it was still in the running for LaMarcus Aldridge. But when the power forward chose to sign with San Antonio, that left the Suns stuck with an aging center with a limited offensive game who may quickly grow disenchanted in Phoenix if the team decides to go the rebuild route. Chandler told ESPN’s Rachel Nichols that he would take a wait-and-see approach and wouldn’t immediately seek out a trade, adding, “If there is a decision and they want to go young and stay young, then we’ll have that conversation. But we’re not there. I’m happy where I am. I feel like the Suns have a bright future if we continue to build and build the right way. It’s all about building the right way.” With Chandler under contract for three more seasons and Len set to enter the final season of his rookie deal, the Suns may not be too keen on paying both players big money and may need to make a tough call on whom to retain.

The front office will also need to decide if it will continue with a multi-guard approach or go with a more traditional lineup. The jury is still out on whether or not Knight and Bledsoe can be an effective backcourt tandem, plus, the emergence of Booker as a potential star may push one of the two high-priced veterans to the bench or out the door in the near future. Knight still has four years and approximately $56.5MM remaining on his pact and the team is still on the hook for three more years and $43.5MM to Bledsoe, so what Phoenix does regarding its backcourt will go a long way toward determining how much roster and cap flexibility the franchise will have the next few seasons. The most prudent path may be to try and trade one or both of the pair this offseason and rebuild around Booker. Given the amount of teams around the league that need an upgrade at the one spot, the Suns may be able to land a number of valuable assets in any deal involving Knight or Bledsoe.

Is Watson the Answer?

The team decided to part ways with Hornacek during the season and installed Earl Watson as interim coach. Despite leading the team to a lackluster 9-24 mark after taking over, Watson was retained as head coach for next season. It should be noted that Bledsoe was already out for the season by the time of the coaching change, and Knight missed most of the games that Watson coached. While Watson lacks NBA head coaching experience, his background as a player, familiarity with the team’s roster and his strong player development skills were obviously selling points to Phoenix’s front office and ownership.

Watson also has a reputation for having a strong influence on free agents, which helped build his case for keeping the job, along with his work to rehabilitate the trade value of Markieff Morris. Couple that with Phoenix’s defensive improvements down the stretch this season and perhaps his ties to the Klutch Sports Group, the agency that also represents Bledsoe, and the retention of Watson makes greater sense. Soon-to-be free agent power forward Mirza Teletovic cited Watson as a major reason why he wants to re-sign with the team.

The Suns were reportedly poised to pursue Mike D’Antoni even before they fired Hornacek, but a reunion with D’Antoni, who won Coach of the Year honors with the Suns in 2005, obviously never materialized. The team eyed Steve Nash, but the former MVP wasn’t interested. Conflicting reports emerged about Phoenix’s interest in Villanova coach Jay Wright, while the team was apparently fond of Dan Majerle and Luke Walton.

Free Agent Targets

The Suns enter the summer with potentially $33MM in cap flexibility. That amount is dependent on the free-agent decision of Teletovic, who has a $6.6MM cap hold. If the power forward signs with another team it may allow Phoenix enough space to potentially float a max salary offers to two players. However, if Teletovic is to be re-signed, Phoenix would likely have to use cap room to sign him since it only holds his Non-Bird rights. Plus, it could eliminate the possibility of adding multiple top-tier free agents without making a corresponding trade to shed salary.

It’s difficult to predict who the Suns may target given the conundrum the franchise faces regarding going young and rebuilding or trying to forge a playoff team around its current personnel. Either way, the team will need to add a power forward who can score from the outside. Parting ways with Morris may have improved team chemistry and cut down on locker room drama, but it also left the Suns with a glaring roster hole. Teletevic is a solid player, but is far better suited to coming off the bench than starting in the long run. If the team doesn’t hit the reset button, Pau Gasol would be a prime target, though he will likely look to catch on with a team possessing a better shot at the title than Phoenix. More realistic targets for the team would be Chandler Parsons, Derrick Williams and Ryan Anderson. Anderson is perhaps the most intriguing name available, though he will likely command a max salary deal and doesn’t necessarily have the track record to warrant such an enormous annual sum.

The Suns could also use more outside shooters, preferably on the wing. While Booker has the potential to be the next great deep bomber in the league, he certainly shouldn’t be forced to be the focal point on offense at such a young age. Plus, if the team decides to deal either Bledsoe or Knight, Phoenix will need to add backcourt depth. The two best options in this area — Bradley Beal and Evan Fournier — are both restricted free agents, which means landing either would be a tricky proposition and the team would need to significantly overpay in order to scare off the players’ current teams.

Help in this area could also arrive in the form of 2014 first-round pick Bogdan Bogdanovic, who is reportedly set to begin negotiating with the Suns now that his Turkish League season is over. This is the last season that Bogdanovic would be required to sign a rookie contract that would give him a salary of about $5.7MM over four years, which could put a damper on the talks. If he waits until next offseason, Bogdanovic is free to negotiate any amount, starting with his draft year’s rookie salary scale.

Draft Targets

Unless the Suns decide to deal away the No. 4 overall pick, the team will likely look to add a scoring power forward with that selection. Phoenix is likely praying that the Celtics, who own the No. 3 overall pick, pass on Dragan Bender, who fits what the Suns need almost too perfectly. Bender will need some time to develop and has the potential to be a disappointment if selected that high in the lottery, but his skill set is simply too tantalizing to pass up. If Boston nabs Bender, or trades the pick to a team targeting the Croatian power forward, Marquese Chriss, Henry Ellenson and Jaylen Brown could be possibilities.

The other area the Suns could look to address at No. 4 is to nab some help on the wing. Buddy Hield and Jamal Murray would be the top two possibilities here, or perhaps Kris Dunn if the team decided it wanted more depth at the point given the injury histories of Knight and Bledsoe. Phoenix also holds the No. 13 and No. 28 overall picks this June, so whichever need isn’t addressed at No. 4 can be handled with those selections. Thon Maker, Deyonta Davis, Malachi Richardson and Domantas Sabonis are all possibilities at the bottom of the lottery for Phoenix.

In Summary

The Suns face an offseason rife with possibilities as well as potential pitfalls. The team’s three highest paid players all missed significant time this past season due to injuries and may not form a cohesive nucleus when they are on the court together. While Phoenix may indeed be good enough to make the playoffs in 2016/17 if healthy, avoiding a repeat of the short-term success enjoyed by the 2013/14 club should be the team’s primary goal. Unless the Suns are somehow able to lure Kevin Durant to Phoenix, rebuilding around the younger players may be the wisest option for all involved.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

  • No. 4 pick ($3,563,600)
  • No. 13 pick ($1,835,200)
  • Bogdan Bogdanovic ($996,700)
  • No. 28 pick ($990,700)
  • Total: $7,386,200

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

Footnotes:

  1. Tucker’s full $5,300,000 salary would become guaranteed on June 30th.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this pos

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Offseason Outlook: Boston Celtics

June 14th, 2016 at 10:38pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

State Of The Franchise

For a second straight season, the Celtics were dispatched fairly quickly from the postseason, but the early playoff exit shouldn’t diminish enthusiasm for the long-term future in Boston. Since the Celtics parted ways with their veterans and replaced Doc Rivers with Brad Stevens in 2013, the franchise has accelerated its rebuilding process, bottoming out at 25 wins in Stevens’ first year before winning 40 in 2014/15 and 48 this past season.Brad Stevens vertical

The drastic improvements on the court have come even before the Celtics have reaped most of the rewards of their blockbuster 2013 trade with the Nets, which gives Boston the third overall pick this year, the rights to swap first-rounders with Brooklyn in 2017, and the Nets’ first-rounder in 2018. Boston’s success within the last two years is as a testament to Stevens’ impact and to Danny Ainge‘s other moves, including the acquisition of All-Star guard Isaiah Thomas.

Stevens and Ainge were rewarded for their excellent work with new contract extensions earlier this month, and will continue to lead the franchise for years to come. As effective as they’ve been so far though, there’s plenty of work to be done. The Celtics are just 2-8 in the postseason under Stevens, and if they want to start making deeper playoff runs, they’ll have to start turning all the assets they’ve collected into more impact on-court talent.

The Search For A Star

Having gathered so many young players and draft picks, the Celtics could make an effort to emulate the Knicks’ and Rockets’ approach to acquiring a star — those teams turned a surplus of assets into Carmelo Anthony and James Harden, respectively, taking advantage of situations where All-Star caliber players became expendable for one reason or another.

For the Celtics, that could mean targeting a player like Jahlil Okafor, who is part of an increasingly crowded frontcourt in Philadelphia; or Kevin Love, who has never quite fit in with the Cavaliers; or Jimmy Butler, who could become available if the Bulls decide to fully enter rebuilding mode. Ainge will likely make calls inquiring on several more players around the league who teams will be reluctant to move, such as DeMarcus Cousins and Paul George.

Trading for an impact veteran, particularly one who can create his own shot and help Thomas carry the scoring load, would help the Celtics become a more dangerous team in the short term, but the club should be wary about giving up too many of its assets for a non-superstar. The Knicks and Rockets, after acquiring Anthony and Harden respectively, have each made it past the first round of the playoffs just once since making those blockbuster deals. Shoving your chips into the table sometimes makes sense, but if Ainge and the Celtics take that approach, it will have to be for the right player(s).

Fortunately for Boston, the team is so loaded with draft picks – this year and in future seasons – that Ainge could move a handful of them and still have several more to work with. That gives the franchise some room for error, and could encourage a big splash this offseason — even if the C’s don’t immediately become a title contender by making a major trade, they’ll still have some bullets in the chamber to fire down the road.

Draft Outlook

  • First-round picks: 3rd, 16th, 23rd
  • Second-round picks: 31st, 35th, 45th, 51st, 58th

A large chunk of those aforementioned assets the Celtics have stockpiled come in the form of 2016 draft picks. With eight of the 60 total selections in their possession, the C’s control more than 13% of this year’s draft, creating a ton of flexibility to add young talent or accommodate trades.

Of course, with two consensus prospects – Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram – at the top of most draft boards, the Celtics would have been in an even better spot if they’d been able to move up the lottery, but controlling that No. 3 pick still puts the team in a strong position. If the C’s keep the pick, they’ll be able to choose their favorite player out of a group of prospects that includes Jamal Murray, Jaylen Brown, Marquese Chriss, Kris Dunn, and Dragan Bender.

If another team covets one of those players though, the Celtics sound more than willing to move the third overall pick, with one report indicating that the team has been “really shopping” the selection around in search of an impact player. While rebuilding clubs make the most sense as trade partners for Boston, contenders shouldn’t necessarily be ruled out either. For a contending team with a ton of salary on its books, replacing a high-priced veteran with a younger player capable of contributing immediately at a fraction of the price could make real sense.

The No. 3 draft pick is the Celtics’ most valuable draft asset, but the team has seven more picks at its disposal. The odds of Boston using even half of those selections seem slim, unless the team decides to load up on draft-and-stash players. Still, there are several different directions Ainge and the front office could go with those picks. Do they keep the third overall pick and use some of the other selections to add a lesser talent? Do they package that No. 3 pick in a deal for a star? Or do they simply push their draft assets to future years, trading some of their second-round picks for future second-rounders?

The sheer number of options available to Ainge this offseason is a good thing for the Celtics, but it will make for some difficult decisions. If Boston can go in 10 different directions with its picks, choosing the optimal path will be tricky.

To Guarantee Or Not To Guarantee?

Further complicating the Celtics’ offseason plans is the fact that the team is carrying nearly $18MM in non-guaranteed salary, the majority of which belongs to Amir Johnson ($12MM) and Jonas Jerebko ($5MM). Both players appeared in nearly every game for Boston last season, and Johnson in particular was a solid role player. Considering the team only has about $34MM in guaranteed contracts on its books for 2016/17, bringing back both players is feasible, but not necessarily a lock.

Both Johnson’s and Jerebko’s contracts are set to become guaranteed on July 3rd, so the Celtics will have to make a decision on the duo before the July moratorium ends. That could mean quickly getting a sense of which free agents are willing to come to Boston and which aren’t interested — if the team has to clear out cap space for a major signing, releasing Jerebko and perhaps Johnson as well would quickly open up another $17MM.

Free Agent Targets

While trading for talent makes sense for the Celtics, the team won’t be hindered by cap issues in its pursuit of top-tier free agents. Even after taking into account cap holds for restricted free agents Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller, unrestricted free agent Evan Turner, and the club’s three first-round picks, Boston still only has about $57MM on its books for next season, not counting its non-guaranteed salaries. That’s more than enough space to make a maximum contract offer to a free agent.

While the cap flexibility is there, Boston historically hasn’t been a marquee destination for free agents, and it seems unlikely that a player such as Kevin Durant would sign with the Celtics, even if the club gets an opportunity to make a pitch in July. Obviously, if the C’s can land a player like Durant, they should go all out to do so, but the club should be wary of using its cap space on a lesser player simply to use it — a max contract for a second-tier free agent like Harrison Barnes could prevent Boston from making other moves down the line, limiting the team’s ceiling.

Although Durant will likely end up elsewhere, and Barnes may not be worth the investment required (or the complications, given his RFA status), the Celtics should be targeting players with their kind of skill-sets. In Thomas, Marcus Smart, and Avery Bradley, the club has a respectable backcourt, and Jae Crowder is a solid three-and-D player, but the C’s need to add scoring and outside shooting. A playmaking forward who can help shoulder the scoring load would be an ideal addition for Boston. Chandler Parsons, Nicolas Batum, Ryan Anderson, and Pau Gasol are among the free agents who the team could consider.

As for Sullinger, Zeller, and Turner, they’re all candidates to return. Given Sullinger’s and Turner’s prominent spots in the rotation last season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Celtics try to keep them around, perhaps jettisoning Zeller, whose role was reduced. Boston could also use a rim-protecting big man, though I’d be a little surprised if the team is willing to pay big money for a free agent like Bismack Biyombo.

Final Take

The Celtics have some solid building blocks in place, and Stevens has done an excellent job at getting the most out of those players. If Ainge can figure out the best way to maximize all the assets the franchise has gathered during its rebuild, Boston could take another big step forward in 2016/17. Still, it’s not as if the C’s have to make a move before their window of contention closing. With so many roster-building options available to him, Ainge will ultimately have to decide what the best course of action is, and that could mean exercising patience and waiting for a better opportunity to cash in some of those assets.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

  • No. 3 pick ($3,952,500)
  • Luigi Datome ($2,275,000)
  • No. 16 pick ($1,573,500)
  • No. 23 pick ($1,151,900)
  • Total: $8,952,900

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bulls

June 13th, 2016 at 9:07pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise heading into the summer.

Big Men, Big Decisions

Matt Bush / USA Today Sports Images

Matt Bush / USA Today Sports Images

The Bulls’ frontcourt could look very different next season with veterans Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah hitting the free agent market.

Gasol has a player option of $7.77MM but it’s a near certainty he’ll decline it so that he can become an unrestricted free agent. Despite turning 36 next month, Gasol should get some juicy offers from playoff contenders. He is coming off a stellar season in which he averaged 16.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 2.0 blocks.

It would be a surprise if Gasol stuck around with a team that didn’t even make the playoffs this spring. Gasol expressed disappointment as last season wound down with the way the team fell apart during the second half of the season.

It’s also questionable whether the front office wants to give its aging center a big contract, unless they plan on making other moves with a ‘win now’ mentality, rather than rebuilding around younger players.

Pau’s brother, Grizzlies big man Marc Gasol, believes he should chase another championship ring by signing with the Spurs.

There are conflicting reports on whether Noah will consider staying with the Bulls, but it’s likely he’ll be wearing another uniform next season.

A league source told ESPN.com’s Nick Friedell late last month that the team has had positive discussions on a new contract. Earlier reports indicated that Noah distrusts the front office and wants out.

Noah, who was in Italy last week, told Sportando he would “consider every offer on the table this summer.” He added that he was “very focused” on free agency and was disappointed with his playing time and the culture change in the locker room last season.

Noah’s season was cut short by shoulder surgery and that could affect the offers he receives, while also improving the Bulls’ chances of retaining him if they’re intent on doing so. The Timberwolves, who hired ex-Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau, are one of the teams reportedly interested in his services.

Breaking Up The Backcourt

Trade rumors are swirling around both of Chicago’s starting guards. The Bulls will certainly entertain offers for Derrick Rose. The question is whether they can stir up any interest in the former MVP.

Rose’s career has been marred by knee issues and he’s been unable to play a full season since suffering an ACL tear during the 2012 playoffs. He managed to play 66 games this past season but, as his subpar 13.5 PER suggests, he’s nowhere near the player he used to be.

Rose has one year and $21.3MM remaining on his contract. Given the salary-cap explosion this summer, some teams could fit him into their salary structure but it’s unlikely the Bulls could get much for him. Not only is his declining production an impediment, he expressed eagerness as far back as last summer about testing the free agent market in 2017.

It may be in both parties’ interest for Rose to stay put this season. He’ll have every incentive to prove he can regain his previous All-Star form.

If the Bulls really want to blow things up, they could shop their best player in Jimmy Butler. That would seem foolhardy unless they got an overwhelming package in return but that could be the case.

The Timberwolves and Celtics, who both own Top 5 picks, are eagerly pursuing a trade for Butler. Undoubtedly, other teams would jump into the sweepstakes if the Bulls were willing to move Butler, but it’s unclear if they’ll make him available.

Free Agent Targets

The Bulls will have the financial flexibility to pursue top-level free agents if both Gasol and Noah bolt. They would be in the market for younger replacements, as well as upgrades at small forward or shooting guard, depending upon whether they retain Butler and which position they want him to play.

Al Horford‘s skill set would make him a natural replacement for Gasol. If they decide to pursue a more traditional center, the enigmatic Dwight Howard would have to be on their radar screen.

Nicolas Batum‘s versatility would upgrade them dramatically at small forward as would Chandler Parsons, contingent on his health issues.

They could also look for depth at point guard if Rose is dealt, or to have a quality veteran to replace him when he misses games. Jeremy Lin or Brandon Jennings could fill that need.

Potential Trades

Besides Rose and Butler, the Bulls could dangle some of their frontcourt pieces if they decide to get younger and acquire future draft picks. Taj Gibson‘s $8.95MM salary for the upcoming season is not the deal breaker it might have been in past, and the Bulls have a similar, younger power forward in Bobby Portis to take his minutes.

Nikola Mirotic would certainly attract interest around the league if he were made available, considering the value teams place on stretch fours.

Draft Outlook

  • First round pick: No. 14
  • Second round pick: No. 48

The Bulls find themselves in the unusual position of drafting in the lottery, though they’re in the middle of the first round. Considering they have needs at most positions, they’ll go the “best player available” route.

Given the uncertainty surrounding Rose’s future with the club, a point guard like Demetrius Jackson or Wade Baldwin would make sense with the No. 14 pick.

Coaching Outlook

Fred Hoiberg’s first year was a lot stormier than anyone could have imagined. Given that he was handed a five-year, $25MM contract last summer, Hoiberg will get at least one more season to prove himself as an NBA head man.

Final Take

The Bulls’ summer is shrouded with mystery. They could try to make a big splash and sign a top-flight free agent to join Butler and get the team back in the playoff picture. Or they could opt to go into full rebuild mode by selling off assets and stockpiling draft picks. It seems nearly certain they’ll lose both Gasol and Noah, so the latter approach might be best.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

  • No. 14 pick ($1,743,500)

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

 

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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Raptors

June 10th, 2016 at 11:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

State Of The Franchise

The 2015/16 season was the most successful in Raptors history. After having only ever won a single five-game playoff series during the first two decades of their existence, Toronto celebrated its 21st season by winning a pair of seven-game series against the Pacers and Heat before falling to Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals.DeMar DeRozan vertical

Despite earning a spot in the NBA’s final four alongside the Cavaliers, Warriors, and Thunder, the Raptors were never viewed as a serious threat to win the title. The team lacks the star power of those other clubs — there’s no Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, or Russell Westbrook on the Raptors’ roster. The team’s two All-Stars, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, had great seasons, but were somewhat inconsistent in the playoffs, and it’s not clear if Toronto will ever be able to seriously challenge for a championship if Lowry and DeRozan are their best players.

That predicament will create some interesting decisions this offseason for the franchise, led by general manager Masai Ujiri. It’s not as if Ujiri will break up a roster that was two wins away from an NBA Finals appearance. Head coach Dwane Casey has already had his contract extended, and the Raptors figure to do all they can to keep the core of their roster intact while adding complementary pieces. Still, Ujiri likely recognizes that his club wasn’t close to beating LeBron and the Cavs, so the GM will have to be on the lookout for the sort of splashy move that could really increase the Raptors’ ceiling.

What Are DeRozan, Biyombo Worth?

Two players who were crucial to the Raptors’ playoff run are facing unrestricted free agency this summer, or at least they will be after DeRozan formally declines his player option and opts out of his deal. Biyombo has already turned down his player option, and is on track to hit the open market on July 1st.

With the salary cap set to make a huge leap from $70MM to an estimated $92MM for the 2016/17 season, most teams around the NBA will be able to comfortably keep all of their key free agents, but that’s not the case in Toronto. The Raptors already have nearly $70MM in guaranteed salaries on their cap for next season, and even before DeRozan signs a new contract, he’ll have a cap hold of $15.5MM. Throw in the cap holds for the Raptors’ two first-round picks, and that barely leaves any money for Biyombo. Since the lanky center signed with Toronto just a year ago, the team only holds his Non-Bird rights, significantly limiting the size of the contract it can offer him without cap space.

Biyombo has indicated he’s open to a “hometown discount” to stay with Toronto, but for a player who could command $16MM+ per year, it would either have to be a pretty massive discount, or the Raptors would have to make major changes to the rest of their roster to accommodate a Biyombo deal. Ujiri, who has landed first-round picks in exchange for players like Andrea Bargnani and Greivis Vasquez in recent years, is the type of GM who is far more inclined to sell high on a player than to offer a player coming off a career year a lucrative long-term contract. In other words, unless DeRozan decides to sign elsewhere or the Raptors trade another high-priced player, Biyombo – a fan favorite – looks unlikely to be back.

As for DeRozan, while his fondness for 20-foot jumpers may frustrate Raptors fans at times, the team won’t let him walk for nothing. Both sides seem eager to continue the relationship, and if that means giving DeRozan a new maximum salary contract – as expected – the Raps figure to put that offer on the table.

Potential Trades

If the Raptors want to make an effort to bring Biyombo back, the two most obvious trade candidates on the roster would be the two players whose rookie contracts will be up in three weeks. Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross each signed new extensions with the Raptors last fall, and those contracts will go into effect on July 1st, with the duo combining to count for more than $24MM against the club’s cap in 2016/17.

One argument against keeping Biyombo is the presence of Valanciunas — Biyombo figures to receive offers from teams intent on making him a starter, and if he stays in Toronto, he’d almost certainly come off the bench behind Valanciunas. Trading the Lithuanian big man would create an opening in the starting lineup, but unless the Raptors could get a monster return in such a deal, it’s not clear it would help the team. Valanciunas’ offensive game is light years ahead of Biyombo’s, and if the Raptors do hope to take the next step toward title contention, continued improvement for the former fifth overall pick – who is just 24 years old – will be crucial.

Of the two recently-extended Raptors, Ross is the more expendable player. If DeMarre Carroll is healthy and Norman Powell takes another step forward, Toronto has a little depth on the wing, albeit not a ton. Ross is also one of the few players on the roster who is a threat as an outside shooter, and if the Raps moved him, they’d have to make three-point shooting a top priority in their other offseason moves. If the team uses its top-10 pick later this month to select a shooter, the Ross trade rumors could gain some steam.

Draft Outlook

  • First-round picks: 9th, 27th
  • Second-round picks: None

Speaking of the draft, the Raptors’ aforementioned Bargnani trade from several years ago has put them on track to achieve a rare feat: making the Conference Finals and drafting in the top 10 in the same year.

If the Raptors keep that ninth overall pick, it seems likely that the team will target a power forward or a shooter (or perhaps a player who fits both criteria). However, Ujiri has indicated that the team is open for business when it comes to its first-round picks. According to the GM, the coaching staff isn’t overly eager to add two more rookies to a roster that already features plenty of developing young players like Lucas Nogueira, Bruno Caboclo, and Delon Wright. That means the Raptors will likely deal at least one of their two first-rounders, if not both.

Given how affordable draft picks are compared to free agent contracts, the Raptors should draw interest from possible trade partners if they shop their first-rounders, but it will be tricky to add an impact veteran without attaching the pick(s) to one of their veteran players. The team isn’t expected to have much – if any – cap room, so it will have to move salary in order to take on salary.

If Toronto ultimately keeps its top-10 pick, Domantas Sabonis, Skal Labissiere, and Henry Ellenson are among the bigs who could be options at No. 9, as ESPN’s Chad Ford tweeted today.

Free Agent Targets

The Raptors’ top two free agent targets are their in-house players – DeRozan and Biyombo – but if the team moves on from Biyombo and renounces Luis Scola, there may be a little room to add another veteran, perhaps with the mid-level exception.

Depending on how the draft plays out, a wing player capable of making three-pointers or a power forward who can protect the rim will likely be the Raptors’ top targets in free agency. With the cap on the rise, the odds of landing a player who excels in either of those categories with a mid-level type deal are slim, but perhaps Ujiri can find a bargain after the first wave of free agency ends.

Terrence Jones, Mirza Teletovic, and Jordan Hill are some of the bigs who could make sense for the Raptors. Finding veteran shooters who could move the needle for Toronto is a trickier task, unless the team wants to take a shot on a bounce-back candidate like Wayne Ellington or Randy Foye. Someone like Jared Dudley could also be a fit.

Final Take

On the surface, the Raptors don’t have a clear path to a major upgrade, since they’ll have to use most of their cap resources just to keep their current roster intact. Still, Ujiri has a history of being creative when it comes to upgrading his rosters, and having an extra first-round pick to work with will provide some additional flexibility.

One thing to keep in mind regarding Ujiri’s approach is that he’s willing to retain assets even if he’s not convinced that they’re part of the long-term plan. When he was the Nuggets GM, he re-signed Nene to a five-year, $65MM contract, only to trade him three months later. That doesn’t mean we should expect DeRozan to be traded by next year’s deadline even if he re-ups with Toronto on a max deal, but Ujiri’s willingness to adjust on the fly could be a factor if he explores the trade market for Valanciunas or Ross.

For a team coming off a Conference Finals appearance, armed with two first-round picks, the future remains bright, and with an extra first-rounder likely headed Toronto’s way in 2017 as well, there’s no rush for Ujiri to shove all his chips into the middle of the table. A splashy move is always a possibility, but there’s no need to panic if the team simply re-signs DeRozan, adds a top-10 talent, and makes some adjustments around the edges of the roster.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

  • No. 9 pick ($2,253,300)
  • Nando De Colo ($1,901,900)
  • No. 27 pick ($996,700)
  • Total: $5,151,900

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

Footnotes:

  1. Biyombo has declined his player option for 2016/17.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia 76ers

June 6th, 2016 at 11:11pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

R.I.P. The Process (2013-2016)

After implementing one of the most unorthodox strategies in recent memory, the Sixers brought in Jerry Colangelo to be the team’s chairman of basketball operations. That was followed by Sam Hinkie stepping down with a glorious 13-page resignation letter, although some would say he was pushed out.

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Hinkie didn’t produce wins, as the team only won 47 games during his three seasons as the GM (six teams in the Eastern Conference won more than 47 games this season).  However, winning games during his first few seasons was never the goal. Hinkie’s focus was constructing a team that could grow and consistently compete for titles, yet there are not many pieces to that quixotic team on the current roster. The upcoming draft should provide at least more foundational piece, but even if Ben Simmons is the next coming of LeBron James, Philadelphia isn’t going claim a seat at the title contenders’ table during the next several seasons given the time it takes even the best prospects to elevate their franchise.

That being said, Hinkie’s tenure should not be considered a failure. He restocked a cupboard that was barren after the ill-fated Andrew Bynum deal and advocates of Hinkie will tell you that he never lost a trade. From the Jrue Holiday trade to the fleecing of the Kings, every deal put the franchise in a better position at least in the long-term. Nevertheless, the team’s array of first and second round picks does Hinkie no good while he’s sitting on his couch.

Colangelo has since shuffled into an advisory role and the team named his son the president of basketball operations and GM. Bryan Colangelo will begin his tenure with as much ammunition as one could reasonably ask for when taking over a struggling franchise.

Draft Outlook

  • First-round picks: 1st, 24th, 26th
  • Second-round picks: None

It will be shocking if the Sixers don’t select Simmons with the No.1 overall pick. The 19-year-old seems to be the favorite of coach Brett Brown and with his arsenal of skills, it’s easy to see why Simmons should be the pick. He’s a natural on the hardwood with the court vision of a seasoned point guard, as I detailed in my Prospect Profile of the former LSU Tiger. That, combined with his 6″10″, 240lb frame, gives him the ability to play any position on the floor.

Philadelphia will have more of a dilemma with the 24th and 26th picks. The team doesn’t have any young promising players in its backcourt, so adding a play-maker or two should be an objective. Demetrius Jackson or Tyler Ulis could be options. Dejounte Murray would be a nice pick if he’s not selected before the end of the first round. Murray will need some time to develop, but unless Colangelo brings in a batch of veterans, there will be minutes available to allow his game to grow.

The team doesn’t have a second round pick because of the 2012 draft night trade that brought in Arnett Moultrie. Moultrie trudged through two seasons in Philadelphia before being traded to the Knicks.

Potential Trades

The team could pick up one more draft pick if they decide to trade Jahlil Okafor to the Celtics in exchange for the No.3 pick. In that scenario, Jamal Murray has a great chance to be the selection. The Sixers reportedly believe he has more upside than anyone in the draft and he would be a nice fit for the team, as I wrote in my Prospect Profile of the 19-year-old.

Philadelphia has shopped Okafor and Nerlens Noel to approximately 15 teams, per Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The front office seems dedicated to having a more balanced roster to start the 2016/17 campaign and trading one of their healthy big men would help achieve that goal.

The rumored Jeff Teague-Noel deal would give them a solid starter at the point guard position. Teague only has one year at $8MM left on his current deal and giving up Noel for a player who can bolt so soon certainly carries risk. However, if you examine the chain of events leading up to this potential trade, it’s an easier risk to take. During the 2013 draft, Philly traded Holiday for Noel and the pick that it used to acquire the rights to Dario Saric. Now, nearly three years later, the team ponders trading Noel for Teague, who has proved to be a better player than Holiday. That would be net win considering the Sixers still have the rights to Saric and they arn’t getting a vastly superior player in exchange for the offensively challenged center.

Derrick Rose is another option for the team to consider should the Bulls look to deal him. As I wrote in Okafor’s Trade Candidate piece, Philadelphia would give Rose a comfortable situation to re-establish himself as a star in this league. Trading a package headlined by Rose may not be enough for the Bulls to bring Okafor to Chicago, but some version of a Noel-Rose deal makes sense for both sides.

Free Agent Targets

With only slightly over $24.5MM in guaranteed salary on the books against a projected $92MM salary cap, the Sixers will likely be more involved in free agency this offseason than in previous years. That figure doesn’t include the non-guaranteed salaries for Robert Covington, Kendall Marshall, Jerami Grant and T.J. McConnell. All four have a good chance to be with the team next season, although Covington reportedly could be dealt to Atlanta in a Teague trade and McConnell or Marshall could be waived if the team brings aboard a point guard or two. Still, even it keeps all four and factoring in the team’s cap holds, Philly will have somewhere north of $46.8MM in available cap space.

Harrison Barnes would be a nice addition and it looks as if giving him a four year max contract will be necessary if an opposing team is going to lure him away from Golden State. The exact figure on Barnes’ potential max deal won’t be determined until July since the maximum salary is tied to the salary cap. The first year of a contract for a player with 4 years experience is roughly 25% of the salary cap. If we use the projected $92MM as that figure, Barnes would make an estimated $23MM during the 2016/17 and slightly under $98.4MM over the four seasons of his max deal. That’s not an ideal contract, but Philadelphia can afford to make such an offer because it doesn’t have any pricey long-term contracts on the books. Also, this offseason is the time to make that kind of risky offer. A potential max deal for Barnes or any free agent would coincide with a rookie deal for Simmons, who can make roughly $5.9MM next season. Simmons’ deal, which could pay him approximately $26.6MM over the next four seasons if selected with the No.1 pick, will immediately be one of the best deals in the NBA because of the cost controlled nature of rookie scale deals. Paying $28.9MM or slightly over 31.4% of your salary cap to Simmons and Barnes doesn’t appear as preposterous when you view the deals as a combined unit.

Joel Embiid‘s Health

Embiid has yet to play a minute of action since entering the NBA. He likely wont take part in summer league, as the team doesn’t want to take any chance that he won’t be ready for the 2016/17 campaign due to a setback. That sounds dreary, but the big man did look good in pregame drills during the latter half of last season when no one was defending him. Stay tuned.

Final Take

After years of trying, the Sixers actually landed the top overall pick and who they select with the pick will shape the franchise for years to come (Surely, there is a chance they select Brandon Ingram, but realistically speaking, Simmons will be the pick). How they decide to surround the No. 1 overall pick will determine how soon they are ready to compete. The team will produce more wins during the 2016/17 campaign than this past season, but that will be more of a testament to how bad Philly was over the last year and how the front office strategy has changed than how good the team actually will be. The future is bright in Philadelphia, but season ticket holders shouldn’t need to allocate funds for playoff tickets just yet.

 

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Hollis Thompson ($1,015,696) — salary non-guaranteed even if option picked up

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

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Offseason Outlook: Miami Heat

June 4th, 2016 at 10:31am CST by Eddie Scarito

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

State of the Franchise

Sam Sharpe/USA TODAY Sports Images

Sam Sharpe/USA TODAY Sports Images

After taking a significant step back during the 2014/15 season thanks to LeBron James taking his talents back to Cleveland, the Heat bounced back with a 48 win campaign this year. This occurred despite star big man Chris Bosh being limited to just 53 games due to recurring blood clot issues and the team’s offense never quite clicking, as Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade spent much of the campaign trying to mesh their games together. Plus, the absence of Bosh forced the team to employ a smaller lineup, placing a number of players outside their normal comfort zones. This included center Hassan Whiteside, who was relegated to a bench role for a portion of the campaign as a result.

The franchise has an extremely important offseason ahead of it, with just six players under contract for 2016/17 for a total cap hit of approximately $48.2MM. But don’t let the apparent bounty of cap flexibility fool you — the Heat will be extremely limited at the beginning of the free agent signing period thanks to the cap holds of unrestricted free agents Wade ($30MM) and Luol Deng ($13.2MM). Miami will either need to re-sign or renounce its rights to the duo in order to access its cap space, and will need to do so posthaste in order to maximize the expected surge in the cap to upward of $92MM for 2016/17. Deng appears to be in line to land a two-year deal that pays him at least $12MM annually. That price may be too steep for the Heat, even though they’d reportedly like to bring the small forward back.

Dwyane Wade’s Free Agency — The Sequel

For team president Pat Riley, coming to a quick and amenable resolution with Wade is paramount for the team to have a successful summer. The Heat’s reported preference for Wade’s next deal would be to make it for just one year, in order to give the franchise flexibility in 2017 and beyond. One Heat insider told Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald that a likely contract for the veteran shooting guard would be in the range of $15MM-$20MM annually, a number that is in line with the $20MM Wade earned this season. Wade’s solid and relatively healthy 2015/16 campaign will make it highly unlikely that he will agree to a discounted annual salary in the range of $12MM, which was reportedly the Heat‘s initial offer to the veteran last May. Instead, Wade ended up inking a one-year, $20MM deal to remain with Miami. Things could get contentious in a hurry if the franchise attempts to low-ball the iconic player, who remains the face of the franchise.

Chris Bosh’s Health Concerns

The Heat are expecting Bosh to be available next season, but there have been reports that the team fears the power forward will never be medically cleared to play again. Bosh still has three years and close to $76MM left on the max deal he signed in 2014 and accounts for roughly half of the guaranteed salary on the team’s books for 2016/17. If he is able to return, he brings with him All-Star level production. But in the short-term, the uncertainty surrounding his health will hamper the team and could potentially turn off prospective free agents, who may not be keen on joining the Heat sans Bosh.

If the worst case scenario were to occur and Bosh is unable to play again, the team could waive him and petition the league to have his cap hit removed. However, even if this were to occur, the cap relief would not kick in until February 9th of next year per league rules. There is also the possibility that relations could become strained between the player and the front office, given that the two sides have reportedly clashed over Bosh wanting to play while on blood thinners. The team appears to have the player’s best interests at heart, but if the veteran presses the issue it could force the Heat to make a difficult decision — allow Bosh to play, which could be fatal, stand firm and risk alienating Bosh, or to try and reach a buyout arrangement which would allow the forward to seek other opportunities.

To Whiteside, or Not to Whiteside

Whiteside is easily one of Riley’s best finds as an executive. The 26-year-old was picked off the scrap heap by Miami and he has rewarded them by evolving into one of the more promising big men in the league. But his success may ultimately cost the team his services this summer when he hits the open market as an unrestricted free agent. Whiteside is coming off the best season of his career, averaging 14.2 points and 11.8 rebounds per game and leading the league with 3.7 blocks per night.

Miami only holds Whiteside’s Early Bird rights, which means that with the big man looking at a max contract that will pay him approximately $21.7MM annually, the team will have to use cap space in order to re-sign the player. The Heat would need to free up enough space to sign him for more than 104.5% of the average salary, which is expected to be only about a third of the value of Whiteside’s max. With seventeen teams currently projected to have enough cap room to offer at least one max deal, and Whiteside almost assuredly going to be in high demand this summer, the Heat will have an extremely difficult and expensive call to make.

With the cap set to increase significantly, a max deal for a player of Whiteside’s talents isn’t out of line with the new economics of the game. But given his bouts of immaturity and hip and knee concerns, a max salary long-term pact does carry with it some very real concerns for the team. If Bosh was healthy, allowing Whiteside to depart wouldn’t be as big a hit to the club. But given the uncertainty surrounding him and the lack of quality bigs around the league, I don’t believe the Heat can allow Whiteside to sign with another franchise without putting up a fight.

Free Agent Targets

It is difficult to predict the team’s strategy, given the uncertainty surrounding Bosh, Whiteside, Deng and Wade. Miami will more than likely need to add depth on the wing, with Deng and Gerald Green both expected to depart as free agents this summer. Viable unrestricted free agent targets for the team include Derrick Williams, Austin Rivers, Caron Butler, Arron Afflalo and Alonzo Gee. I’d also add Lance Stephenson to that list if Memphis parts ways with him, and believe he would be a solid fit on the team. The Heat will likely make a run at Kevin Durant, but he’s probably out of their reach, though one should never discount Riley pulling off an offseason stunner.

The Heat will also need to add some frontcourt depth, even if Whiteside is re-signed. Potential additions up front include Bismack Biyombo, although he is likely going to be in line for a significant payday after his strong postseason showing for the Raptors, and Festus Ezeli, if he is cut loose by the Warriors in an effort to clear cap room. Pau Gasol is another possibility, though he’ll likely try and latch on with a franchise closer to contending for a title given his advancing age and relative financial security.

Draft Outlook

Miami doesn’t currently own a pick in this year’s draft with its first-rounder (No. 24) overall owed to the Sixers and second-rounder (No. 51 overall) belonging to the Celtics. The team can’t purchase a draft pick as it has already used up its allotted $3.4MM in cash for the season in other trades.

Final Take

The Heat enter the offseason with more uncertainty than they likely care for and less initial cap flexibility than is ideal. The team will have a number of vital calls to make within the first few hours of free agency if it wants to be players and not be left to pick over the free agent scrap heap. Reaching a quick agreement with Wade on a new deal would be a good jumping off point and doing so without upsetting the star in the process would certainly be preferable.

Miami has a number of roster holes needing to be addressed and the best strategy for this summer may be to simply re-sign Wade and Whiteside, surround them and Dragic with solid role-players and veterans, then wait for the strong free agent class of 2017 to retool and reload. But with Riley at the helm, one can never quite know what to expect. The executive has pulled off a number of shockers over the course of his career, though he’ll likely be hard-pressed to improve Miami significantly this summer. But fret not Heat fans, a warm weather locale, no state tax, the presence of Riley and a winning pedigree mean the franchise will remain competitive for the foreseeable future.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Portland Trail Blazers

May 30th, 2016 at 8:01pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

Kyle Terada / USA Today Sports Images

Kyle Terada / USA Today Sports Images

Restricted Free Agent Decisions

The first two weeks of free agency will go a long way in determining how the Trail Blazers’ roster will look heading into next season. They have three restricted free agents who were rotation players this past season — shooting guard Allen Crabbe, power forward/center Meyers Leonard and combo forward Maurice Harkless.

The shortening of this year’s July moratorium from 11 days to six puts the Blazers’ front office in a difficult spot. While they have enough cap flexibility to pursue max free agents and blockbuster trades, the Blazers will have to either secure verbal commitments from one or more of them or cut them loose to keep their options open.

Crabbe is expected to receive contract offers exceeding $10MM annually after his breakout season. He emerged as one of the top reserves in the league, averaging 10.3 points in his third season while shooting a healthy 39.4% on 3-point attempts.

Leonard’s situation is complicated by health concerns. His season was cut short by a torn labrum in his left shoulder and he may not be ready for the start of the season. That could limit the market for Leonard, who averaged a career-high 21.9 minutes in his fourth season while mainly coming off the bench.

Harkless’s playing time and production increased after Leonard’s injury in March. That carried over to the postseason, in which he averaged 11.0 points and 5.1 rebounds. That was probably enough to earn him a significant raise from the approximate $2.9MM he made this past season.

Upgrading The Frontcourt

The Trail Blazers surprised a lot of people by making the playoffs and reaching the second round after losing their top frontcourt player, LaMarcus Aldridge, in free agency.

Portland compensated for the loss by featuring their backcourt pieces on offense. Damian Lillard averaged a career-high 25.1 points and C.J. McCollum exploded onto the NBA landscape, averaging 20.8 points in his third season. Crabbe was the team’s third-leading scorer and another backcourt reserve, Gerald Henderson, was its sixth-leading scorer.

Acquiring a consistent frontcourt scoring option to complement the team’s dynamic backcourt is a must. Starting small forward Al-Farouq Aminu simply has too many offensive limitations to fill that role and the players at the power positions — particularly starting center Mason Plumlee, Leonard and Ed Davis — have not shown they can handle added offensive responsibilities.

The team hoped that Noah Vonleh could turn into that player when he was acquired from the Hornets prior to last season but he only averaged 3.6 points despite starting 56 games.

They must also improve their frontcourt defense. Plumlee’s underwhelming 1.04 blocks per game was enough to lead the club in that category. They need a much more imposing rim protector and inside physical presence in order to become a serious contender.

A stretch four would also be on the shopping list if Leonard is not re-signed.

Free Agent Targets

The Blazers acknowledge they are not exactly a prime free-agent destination, though their current status as a playoff team could help their cause.

GM Neil Olshey recently admitted that he’s not expecting to land a top-level free agent. “Whenever we get that first [high profile] guy to come, it will be unprecedented when you look at the history,” he said.

The Blazers still have to feel out the market and see if they can attract a top-tier free agent, given their frontcourt needs. Dwight Howard, Hassan Whiteside and Al Horford would make them a much more dangerous playoff team.

More realistically, they could explore the next tier of free agent options. Joakim Noah or Bismack Biyombo would provide the type of defensive force they’re lacking on the interior. Marvin Williams, Donatas Motiejunas or Ryan Anderson would fit the bill in the stretch four category.

Al Jefferson would give them a reliable, if aging, post scorer while Harrison Barnes — should the Warriors let him go — would likely embrace the opportunity of being a bigger part of someone’s offensive scheme.

Potential Trades

If the Blazers strike out in free agency, they’ll have to go the trade route. They could absorb salary to bring in a rotation player with multiple years left on his deal. In terms of trade pieces, they could find a market for Aminu or Vonleh, given that Aminu’s contract now looks a lot cheaper given the impending salary-cap explosion, while Vonleh is still on his rookie deal.

Along with the frontcourt needs, they’ll have to fortify their backcourt if Crabbe or unrestricted free agent Henderson departs, or if they desire a more traditional second-string point guard behind Lillard.

Draft Outlook

The Blazers do not have a pick, unless they trade into the draft. They dealt their first-rounder to the Nuggets in 2015 when they acquired Arron Afflalo and gave up their second-rounder to the Cavaliers a couple of years earlier.

Coaching Outlook

The Blazers have already taken care of one major off-season decision by agreeing to an extension with head coach Terry Stotts. The front office exercised its option on the final year of Stotts’ current deal and the three-year extension will kick in during the 2017/18 campaign.

Final Take

While the Blazers were one of the surprise teams in the league, they can’t rest on their laurels. They were barely above .500 and had good fortune in the first round of the playoffs, when injuries decimated the Clippers. They must improve their frontcourt to take the next step and they’ll also have to find another solid scorer off the bench if they lose Crabbe in free agency.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Lakers

May 29th, 2016 at 9:30pm CST by Arthur Hill

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

State Of The Franchise

David Banks/USA TODAY Sports Images

David Banks/USA TODAY Sports Images

The Kobe Bryant era has ended in Los Angeles, and it’s hard to say whose name might be attached to the next era.

Bryant wrapped up his 20-year career in April and took with him the only bit of star power on the Lakers’ roster. Unless this is the year L.A. lands a top-level free agent, the franchise will rely on a youth movement built around recent lottery picks D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle, along with Larry Nance Jr. and possibly Jordan Clarkson if he re-signs. Los Angeles also has the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, although the front office may decide to trade it for veteran help.

The Lakers are coming off a 17-65 season, the worst in their 68-year history. After being one of the league’s elite teams for decades, L.A. has strung together three consecutive last-place finishes. With a fan base and a front office that is used to winning, there is a lot of pressure throughout the organization for an immediate turnaround.

Coaching Change

Former coach Byron Scott was criticized for relying too much on veterans and being too harsh toward younger players. That might have been OK if he were winning, but the steady stream of losses turned the fans — and eventually management — against him. Scott was fired in April and will be replaced by Golden State lead assistant Luke Walton when the Warriors are finished in the playoffs.

Walton became the hottest name on the coaching market when he led Golden State to a 39-4 record while head coach Steve Kerr was sidelined by a back ailment. Walton is expected to bring many of the Warriors’ concepts with him to Los Angeles.

Roster Decisions

The loss of Bryant’s $25MM salary and the expiration of Roy Hibbert‘s $15.5MM contract give the Lakers a massive amount of cap room heading into free agency. With Brandon Bass planning to turn down his $3.135MM player option, Los Angeles will have a little more than $23MM in guaranteed salary against a cap projected at $92MM. Lou Williams, who signed a three-year deal in free agency last summer, is currently the highest-paid Laker at $7M per season.

The most important decision regarding the current roster will involve Clarkson, who will be a restricted free agent after making a league minimum $845,059 this season. Under the Gilbert Arenas Provision, the Lakers must tender a $3.2MM qualifying offer to have the right to match whatever deal Clarkson receives in free agency. The second-year guard has expressed a desire to stay in L.A. and play for Walton.

Another intriguing decision involves Nick Young, who still has two more seasons and more than $11MM left on his contract, but who got into a highly publicized spat with Russell over a failed prank involving a video. The Lakers may attempt to trade Young or buy him out to eliminate any friction with their young point guard.

Free Agent Targets

The Lakers always swing for the fences in free agency, but they have a recent record of whiffing on elite names. With tons of cap room and the glamour of Los Angeles to offer, the Lakers will chase all the best free agents on the market. They’ll certainly try to get a meeting with Kevin Durant and are rumored to be planning a strong push for L.A. native DeMar DeRozan. Some other names to watch are Hassan Whiteside, Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Harrison Barnes, Nicolas Batum and Ryan Anderson.

Draft Outlook

The Lakers secured the No. 2 pick on lottery night, guaranteeing them Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram, who are considered the best two players in the draft. Simmons is a 6’10 combo forward out of LSU who is celebrated for his scoring, passing and rebounding. Ingram is a 6’9″ small forward out of Duke who may be more ready for the NBA next season than Simmons is. Either has a good shot to be a starter with the Lakers and make an impact right away. However, Los Angeles is expected to listen to offers for the pick, and many should be coming, considering how highly Simmons and Ingram are viewed. L.A. will also have the second pick in the second round — No. 32 overall.

Final Take

The clock is running on the famous guarantee from 2014 by Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations Jim Buss, who said he will resign if he can’t turn the Lakers into contenders within three or four years. The team regressed on the court this season, and Bryant’s retirement tour seemed to carry more importance than actually winning games. Turmoil in the locker room and among the coaching staff combined with an awful on-court product to produce a nightmare season for Lakers fans.

Hope comes in the form of Walton and his Golden State pedigree, the addition of Simmons or Ingram and a promising young foursome already in place. The Lakers have the foundation for a nice, slow build back toward contention, but that’s not the way things are typically done in L.A. — not with pressure from celebrities in high-priced seats and the cross-town Clippers grabbing all the headlines.

The current group of youngsters probably can’t make good on Buss’ guarantee, so the organization will again pin its hopes on free agency and possibly a blockbuster deal involving the No. 2 pick. It remains to be seen if the Lakers can land their next star and start their next era, but the offseason in L.A. should be much more exciting than the regular season.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

  • No. 2 pick ($4,401,400)

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

Footnotes:

  1. The cap hold for Bryant will be the maximum salary for a veteran of 10 or more seasons. The number shown here is an estimate based on the projected cap figure.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: San Antonio Spurs

May 28th, 2016 at 8:44pm CST by Arthur Hill

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

State of the Franchise

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The NBA’s most reliable franchise over the past two decades may be heading into a summer of change. The Spurs have reached the playoffs in 19 straight seasons, and while no one expects that streak to end with Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge as team leaders, there’s a chance that franchise cornerstones Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili could retire, and Tony Parker could find himself in a reduced role or traded away.

The Spurs put together a historically great regular season that was only overshadowed because the Warriors broke a league record at 73-9. San Antonio won 67 regular-season games and posted a 40-1 mark at home. But Gregg Popovich’s crew suffered an early playoff exit for the second straight year, this time falling to the Thunder in six games in the Western Conference semifinals.

End of the line?

The 40-year-old Duncan has a player option for 2016/17 worth close to $6.4MM with incentives added in. He appeared in 61 games in his just-completed 19th NBA season, averaging career lows in both scoring and rebounding. His scoring average dipped below double figures for the first time as Popovich limited his minutes to barely more than half a game.

Ginobili will turn 38 this summer and has a player option for next season at slightly more than $2.9MM. He averaged less than 20 minutes per game this year and had a scoring average below double digits for the first time since his rookie season. The Argentinian star said he intends to meet with Duncan and Popovich at some point this summer before deciding whether to play another year.

Roster decisions

Veteran power forward David West also has a player option for next season worth $1.552MM. Considering that West sacrificed about $11MM to join the Spurs and get a chance at a ring, he may want to fatten up his bank account this summer. If Duncan, Ginobili and West all opt in, the Spurs are looking at a little more than $84.5MM in guaranteed salary against a cap projected at about $92MM. If they all opt out, San Antonio will have about $10MM more to fill out its roster. In addition, Boris Diaw is scheduled to make $6.5MM next season, but only $3MM of that is guaranteed if he is released by June 30.

A huge decision could be made involving Parker, who recently turned 34. Parker has two years remaining on his current deal at $14,445,313 and $15,453,126, but the Spurs may view this offseason as a chance to get younger and faster. There have been reports that they are interested in Memphis point guard Mike Conley in free agency, and if he comes to San Antonio, Parker will likely be on the way out.

If the Spurs decide to go younger, they will presumably cut ties with veteran free agents Andre Miller and Kevin Martin. At 36, Matt Bonner is also a free agent, but he seems content to sign one-year deals as long as San Antonio will give him a roster spot. The most interesting free agent is 7’3″ rookie center Boban Marjanovic, who could get a nice raise from the $1.2MM he made this season.

Free agent targets

Conley seems like a perfect candidate to run the Spurs’ offense if this summer results in a partial youth movement. He will turn 29 in October and has already been in the league nine years — all with Memphis, where he has led the Grizzlies to the playoffs six straight times. Conley scores, rebounds, distributes the ball and limits turnovers. San Antonio would need about $26MM in cap room to offer him a max deal, but it would be a huge coup for the organization if Conley comes to town.

Any other free agent signings will depend on how the roster decisions shake out and how much cap room the Spurs have left. As West showed a year ago, some veteran players are willing to take discounts to play for San Antonio.

Draft outlook

The Spurs’ lone pick this year is No. 29 in the first round. ESPN’s Chad Ford has San Antonio taking Louisville center Chinanu Onuaku with that selection, while Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress expects it to be Zhou Qi of China. The Spurs often use late first-round picks to stash players overseas for the future, so keep an eye on international talent. San Antonio’s second-round pick was traded to Sacramento in a 2015 deal involving Ray McCallum.

Final take

The Spurs are still a great team and likely will remain one as long as Leonard and Aldridge are productive. They were good enough to win 67 games this season, but the series with Oklahoma City raised questions about their depth and their age.

San Antonio GM R.C. Buford was the big winner of last season’s free agent sweepstakes when he landed Aldridge and West. He won’t have to do nearly as much this summer, but there will be some holes on the roster to fill, and it may be late June before he knows what Duncan, Ginobili and West will do about their player options.

There’s no doubt that San Antonio will remain one of the NBA’s elite teams next season, and a 20th consecutive playoff trip seems certain. But Buford’s offseason moves will determine if a sixth title comes along with it.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

Footnotes:

  1. Diaw’s full $7,000,000 salary would become guaranteed on June 30th.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Hawks

May 21st, 2016 at 3:29pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.

State of the Franchise

Kamil Krzaczynski/USA TODAY Sports Images

Kamil Krzaczynski/USA TODAY Sports Images

The Hawks enter the offseason coming off a humbling sweep at the hands of the Cavaliers in the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. The franchise likely missed its best window to reach the NBA Finals in 2015, having won 60 games and earning the top seed in the Conference for its efforts. The 2014/15 Cleveland squad was still trying to gel together and the Bulls were hampered by another unfortunate run of injuries, but the Hawks still failed to capitalize and were sent home by the Cavs via a sweep in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Atlanta took a step back this season, notching 48 wins and earning the fourth seed in this year’s playoffs. Both accomplishments are respectable, but the team almost assuredly had higher aspirations when the 2015/16 season tipped off. The Hawks have a number of vital roster decisions to make this offseason and the team may look drastically different in 2016/17 as a result.

Roster Decisions

The biggest decision the Hawks will need to make right out of the gate is whether or not to re-sign center Al Horford, who has spent his entire nine-year career with the team. Horford has been a remarkably consistent performer throughout his tenure and his $12MM salary for 2014/15 was extremely reasonable given his track record and output. The big man, who turns 30 next month, will have no shortage of suitors this offseason, with his current team in Atlanta expected to make him a max offer in July. However, it’s not yet clear whether the Hawks intend to offer Horford a five-year pact to go along with that max salary. While Atlanta appears to be strong frontrunners to lock up the veteran, Houston and other clubs figure to make pitches as well, if given the opportunity. While re-signing Horford would appear to be a no-brainer for the team, big men don’t traditionally age well in the league, so giving Horford a five-year pact is a risky move, regardless of the significant increase in the salary cap that takes effect for next season.

The Hawks will also need to make a decision regarding swingman Kent Bazemore, who enjoyed a breakout season for the team, averaging 11.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists over 75 appearances in 2015/16. Atlanta only has Early Bird rights on Bazemore, meaning it can only exceed the salary cap to keep him if his contract starts at less than about $6MM annually. Any additional salary for next season would have to come out of cap room, and given the cap flexibility that many teams will have this summer, there is a good chance that Bazemore will end up being overpaid as a result. Whether or not Atlanta will be the one to do so remains to be seen.

Atlanta will also need to decide whether or not Dennis Schröder is its point guard of the future, or if Jeff Teague should continue to be the starting playmaker. Both players have one season remaining on their current deals, though Schröder will only be a restricted free agent after next season, which may factor into the Hawks’ thinking. Teague was reportedly in high demand from a number of teams prior to February’s trade deadline, which certainly makes him and his team-friendly salary of $8MM a potentially valuable trade chip this offseason. Schröder, who has gone on record saying he wants to be a starter going forward, would also fetch a solid return, though his salary of $2,708,582 may make it harder to work a deal for an upper-tier player if Atlanta decides to part with him.

Free Agent Targets

The Hawks won’t know what roster holes they will need to fill until decisions are made regarding Horford and Bazemore. If both players re-sign, Atlanta will likely return all five starters and all five primary reserves from the 2015/16 campaign. While the organization certainly values continuity, this outcome may not be the best one for the team given the rapidly improving competition in the Eastern Conference.

If Horford leaves, Atlanta may be tempted to make a run at Dwight Howard, who is widely expected to opt out of his deal with Houston to become an unrestricted free agent. Howard is no longer the dominant physical force that he was during his tenure with the Magic, plus, he’s not a great fit for coach Mike Budenholzer‘s system. If the Hawks do pursue Howard, the only safe play is to sign him to a short-term deal, though there is no guarantee that Howard would accept such an arrangement. But inking a two-year pact that includes a player option for the second season could allow Howard to re-establish his value as well as rebuild his reputation as a teammate. This sort of arrangement would also serve to mitigate some of the risk involved on the team’s part, as big men always bring with them injury concerns and Howard already has a history of back woes.

The other area that the Hawks need to address, regardless of whether or not Bazemore is retained, is the team’s subpar outside shooting. Atlanta missed the presence of DeMarre Carroll, who departed via free agency to Toronto last summer, and the team could definitely benefit by upgrading at the wing. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kyle Korver don’t appear to be the solution, though Hardaway did show promise during the second half of the 2015/16 campaign. But questions about his defense and shot-selection make him far from a sure thing and Korver’s production has been on the decline the past two campaigns. This franchise desperately needs to add a new body to the mix.

There are a number of potential wing upgrades expected to be on the market, including J.R. Smith, Arron Afflalo and Austin Rivers, none of whom would be a great fit in the team’s offense. The most intriguing potential target for Atlanta is Magic swingman Evan Fournier, who would be a fantastic fit in Budenholzer’s system. The 23-year-old is set to become a restricted free agent and any suitors will need to grossly overpay for his services in order to scare off the Magic, who have stated they intend to keep the Frenchman.

Draft Outlook

The Hawks own the No. 21 overall pick, as well as two second-rounders (No. 44 and No. 54) in June’s draft. While it’s difficult to predict who the team will target given the other roster decisions Atlanta will need to make, the Hawks will likely look to add frontcourt depth in the first round. Some possibilities for the Hawks include Damian Jones (Vanderbilt), Stephen Zimmerman (UNLV), Cheick Diallo (Kansas), Ante Zizic (Croatia), Brice Johnson (North Carolina) and Diamond Stone (Maryland).

All of the players I mentioned would come with question marks, but Zimmerman and Diallo would be the smartest additions given their respective upsides. Diallo has impressed scouts with his physical tools during the combine and pre-draft workouts thus far, but he is a project that Atlanta may not be able to wait on to develop. The safer pick, provided he is still on the board when Atlanta is due to select, would be Zimmerman. There are major concerns regarding his ability to defend at the NBA level, but his versatile offensive skill set makes him a good bet to develop into a prototypical stretch-four in the league.

Final Take

The Hawks are in danger of allowing themselves to be overtaken in the Eastern Conference by a number of up-and-coming teams. Much of the franchise’s cap flexibility and offseason plans depend on the decisions made regarding Horford and Bazemore. Calls that will need to be made rather quickly once the free agent signing period commences. But even if both players are retained, Atlanta doesn’t look to be an improved squad heading into the 2016/17 campaign. Barring a big name free agent deciding to take a discount to join the Hawks, the team’s best chance at improving itself is to trade either Teague or Schröder for help on the wing.

Atlanta appears to be a franchise that will be doomed to be good enough to make the playoffs, but not talented or deep enough to be considered serious contenders for the foreseeable future. This will make it difficult to rebuild since the team isn’t likely to fall far enough in the standings to nab a lottery pick. Retaining Horford and Teague would maintain continuity, but perhaps the team would be better served in the long-run to deal Teague and allow Horford to depart. The fanbase may not appreciate taking a step back, but doing so may allow the franchise to remake itself into more than just an annual playoff-qualifier.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Mike Muscala ($1,015,696) — salary non-guaranteed even if option picked up

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Other Cap Holds

  • No. 21 pick ($1,207,500)

Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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